The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Paddy,
I appreciate that post from you. Now I understand your criteria more clearly, I understand why you are remaining patient on this one. I don't see as much risk for CARD as you do, hence our difference of opinion. Where you see previous poor management and the stores being closed due to Covid as a problems, I see those things as opportunities. I think this is prime time to be involved for the turnaround, but if you don't mind missing out on some of the ride upwards, then I fully understand why you are waiting until the recovery is underway. I'm heavily invested now, but will ensure that I keep enough cash on the side for an RI (if it comes), a dip (if we see the 30's again) or averaging up (if the stock recovers from here). Hopefully Rishi's new grants will help keep us ticking over until the reopening is underway; at the very least, I think this announcement will see CARD's share price hold firm, or even rise, on Monday
@34a but the covenant issue will sort itself with a return to stores opening when these new covs were set it was agreed 3x EBITDA but the world thought we were all open again and no more lockdown. We have had two since which have been much longer and harsher so the covs weren’t set for the world we are now in
Outside of covid the cov is 2x EBITDA this business the year before covid did £80m EBITDA. We have £90m of debt. When normal trading resumes we are barely over 1x
This isn’t a solvency issue it’s purely a shops closed issue. The business has still generated cash and grows online. What’s the need for the cash? Banks can see they only need to wait a few more months and all be fine
The banks might as well refinance, sort themselves a nice fat fee, and lock in a cash generative interest paying customer for the future. This way the bank gets paid. Taking lots of equity for their debt? Is bad PR and pain for them as then have to run it
Sub 17p will get the RI away. Sold out most over 48p on Thurs. Average cost now less than 4p. Intend to take up rights and buy back in. Will wait until I see the details. GLA.
it has to be agreed by shareholders. I'm sure they would have been in discussion with the big institutional holders about it.
I should have added: assuming they aren't obliged to significantly dilute existing shareholders.
RR did their equity raise at the bleakest time. Last October: Cases rising, no vaccine hopes, Oil at $35, prospects of lockdowns restarting.
Given that shops are about to reopen in 6 weeks' time I think they'd get quite a lot of interest as an obvious reopening/normality play. The shares are obviously cheap once the covenant issue goes away.
Hi Ian, long time. Are you in on this one? 35p is pie in the sky as a RI price. It would be a deeply discounted affair due to the distressed nature. My guess would be something similar to RR. A 10 for 3 priced around 15-20p would raise ample funds & should generate the interest needed.
Card should have done a capital raise last April at 50p once it became clear Covid was not going away. Most well managed companies foresaw the difficulties and raised funds to see them through the pandemic. Imo card screwed up sitting and doing nothing whilst breaching debt covenants which puts you at risk of liquidation.
The rns suggest they are finally about to get their finger out, the bank are not extending the breach of covenant waivers by more than 4 weeks at a time and card now realise they need to get their debt payments sorted to stay in business.
On the plus side if they can raise funds at say 35p it will sure up the balance sheet and remove short term uncertainties on bank loan breaches and with stores reopening mid April it can become a more solid recovery play.
almost the whole board jumped out yesterday as i see it!
No, they proclaimed to be long term holders not traders. 'be 150 by Xmas', 'in this for the long haul' 'this is a profitable business'., 'can't wait fo dividend to return' Trading is one thing & i would have expected the traders to be in on the pump & dump activity. Why did the self proclaimed long termers jump ship?
& also what price do you think this will close at on Monday? do you think after that RNS this will stay over 40?
fundamentals, why did all your ramping mates jump ship yesterday after proclaiming to be in it for the long term? simple question, so simple answer please!
i can give you 500 stocks which are overvalued. Card Factory is overvalued at the moment. The markets will prove that on Monday morning!
my opinions are based on sound reasoning. I don't come on this board making rash claims how i've bought & will stay for years when dividends are 80p & share price is £20 & then bail out the next day. I read the RNS which the companies post & interpret them accordingly unfortunately many here do not do that & it is important that all angles are covered. I really have no interest about people's many personal jibes at me. They are clearly just frustrated by the reasoned logic i present to them. People should not get emotional about shares. They need to detach themselves & look at the reality. I only invest in shares which will make me money & offer a value proposition with limited risk. At the moment CF is clearing teetering on insolvency & as such is too high a risk. If i eventually invest in here which will only be when the SP is at the true value of mid 20s, i actually would hold for a long term. If i don't get my target price well c'est la vie. Another bus will be along in a few minutes!
Totally agree! - we’re still waiting on Paddyboy to give us 5 alternative stocks that are comparably valued. This will be in the 70’s come may (my opinion). Hoping the new CEO will abandon additional stores (as noted in September presentation) and focus on gaining ground in the online offering
Paddy thank you for letting us know what the share price will be the following day. We all really appreciate it.
Ever asked yourself whether everyone calling you a sad little unloved man are all just bitter and angry about this stock and that we are all just being necessarily mean to you ? Even though you are behind a computer screen, it doesnt mean that you are not a dishonorable and unsavory human person. I would advise you not to simply reply with "you do not like counter arguments". You keep replying with that automatically. Just look in the mirror and ask yourself whether everyone is wrong about you or whether you could improve your moral compass. Everyone has one. I would advise you to start posting more detailed challenges to the companies prospects if you are bearish. If your intention is to scare less sophisticated people by selling them the notion that you can predict day to day share price movements, even when you know perfectly well you are unable to do that, your behavior is immoral isnt it?! Dont respond, just take it on board man. I am trying to help you as a person. We can all improve behaviour and i want you to do the same.
Fundamentals, i would advise you to not think about getting in and getting out. One can not predict day to day or week to week share price movements. It is impossible. Rather if we take a view on the instrinsic value of the company, it has the potential to earn £50m in free cash flow 12 months from April 12th. Based on interest rates, if we value those cash flows at 10x that is an enterprise value of £500m. Assuming we have £100-150m of debt, of which if we pay down £40m in 12 months so lets call it £100m.....thats an equity value of £400m in 2022. The current mcap is c. £150m. That is a huge margin of safety that one requires if there is any negative dilution or more onerous refinancing terms.
On that basis, this is one of the best value stocks i have seen in a long time.
rest assured those LTHs who sold @50 will be back her next week @low 30s!
Bit of semantics here about the equity raise phrases used: refinancing, recapitalise etc. IMO this will only be a RI now. If they were going to do a placing it would have happened by now. Clearly the banks/backers don't want to risk more of their cash. No, they will tap retail for the risk for sure!
Clearly fundamentals missed the 50p exit door which oh so many of his ramping chums bolted for. I'm sure in true disingenuous spirit he will have the finger on the sell button @8am Monday though. What a bizarre investment strategy: 'take a stake & grow it as events unfold'= buy high, sell low! i've been in on lots of RI & done pretty well on most. you clearly never participated in one as you clearly don't understand how equity raises work. 'SP highly likely to rally on both equity options' Cloud cuckoo land mate!!!
Tui, carnival, rolls Royce, aml all had massive fund raise, look at their share price since then! Cf have done well to avoid one so far, but, as the shops begin to open the sp will only get stronger whether or not they have a ri.
LL, There are lots of stocks which have potential, no sense listing them. I don't agree with stock recommending as people should DYOR & take their own risks. You hit the nail on the head though with your 2 words 'less risk'. The risk is the only reason i haven't invested here as yet. Weak management too but the risk is the big issue here & when that is removed i will invest a substantial amount here. If there was not going to be a fund raise here the banks would've extended the covenants beyond March. Let's face it, the outlook will not change between now & then for CARD as shops not to open till April at the earliest. For your info, my main investment are in oil related stocks. BP & PFC are my largest holding & both bought at value prices.
Paddy (aka Mr 30p),
I'm as baffled as you are about the selling from alleged long-term holders today. As I said in my post, the sentiment here seems to change with the weather, but to say 'how can you take this board seriously?' when you post on here more frequently than anybody else and you consistently write uninformative, biased posts, is even more perplexing. I'm still waiting for your stock suggestions. Criteria: higher realistic potential upside than CARD, less risk and a better P/E ratio (based on pre-Covid earnings). If you can list 5, I'll sell all my shares on the opening bell on Monday
Roxbury House another B****ter now claiming he bought back in after his long soliloquy the other week justifying his exit. Don't believe these rampers like Mr Tom Beef who ramped to the heavens yesterday & cut & run today!
the man with grey matter paid 85p average for these shares. LOL