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38 posts and virtually every one *****ing about nothing.
way past your bedtime. Remember you gotta get up early to press sell at 8am like the rampers who beat you to it on Friday afternoon!
oh & i like the white lies about Boo. you only bought there in January. Must be on a loss there too. Explains the frustrated stress i suppose. Give up this share game mate. Stick to the paper round!
fundamentals you obviously paid to much for this stock. I bet you claim to have bought cine @14p as well. Come on.How much you out of pocket on your bizarre investments really?
it doesn't really bother me if Boo goes down or up really. Just noting it's on a down trend. That's all. Likewise, i don't care too much for what price this goes to either until it descends to a true & realistic value entry price which is below 30p!
Wiscos you should perhaps also advise extremist rampers to desist from falsely inflating the stock which might encourage people to buy at a falsely inflated price. Especially when a vast majority of them disingenuously bolt out the door when they sniff the profits & realise the crash is coming! if you don't like it filter button. simples!
Ha Ha! Not deramping, just predicting a massive drop. Hilarious! Some less generous than me would question your honesty! Now how's this on the same lines? Paddy... Not being rude, but please go away and desist posting extreme views that might encourage some to sell. If you're not interested in the stock why do you post so much continual one way nonsense?
@paddy you don’t know how these things work. You model and forecast
And I’m saying when we got the waiver these things which will have been modelled as known at the time have all moved favourably. Ie I might model 10% revenue growth. If I do 15% then that’s upside
I might model the £ at 1.2 a $ but then it moves to 1.4 that’s upside
So these things are all known or very likely upsides to the forecast
But as I say model a 30% fall in profitability on the pre-covid trading and we would sail under the covenants
You’ve still never answered the question. What does the business actually need the cash for?
I think it's going sub 3 again in next few weeks. Just saying, not deramping but it's back on a downhill spiral!
so what price did you pay for boo? i bought some at 250 last year & flipped at 300
those knowns are not knowns: 1)exchange rate changes daily; 2)£6m on the way-yea right; 3) Stores opening-still no certainty on that!
@paddy you’re flipping your story now. First it was leases and debt that wasn’t know, ebitda isn’t right as doesn’t factor those in and then when you’ve been shown you double counted that you’ve changed to the “unknown” risks
Well here are some knowns now which weren’t known when we got the first waiver
- the £ is materially higher so our cost base falls
- there’a £6million CASH on the way
- stores are opening earlier than forecast
Also when stores opened up last time the LFL performance was 15% ABOVE the pre covid same months. So from open store data in October / November we know that customers want to get back to stores. You’re ignoring that
But as I say factor in a 30% downside and we still sail under the covenants
i hope you didn't pay too much for BOO. Could be some real boohooing there soon!
Ah, Boo & Cine. Now i understand where you get your social graces & etiquette from. The bubble gum boards!
what shares are you invested in fundamentals?. I'm fascinated to know
fundamentals: buy high-sell low: great advice thank you Warren Buffett!
Danl, You are making predictions relating to an unknown future. If any company knew exactly what the post covid world will look like, life & investing etc would be oh so simple. The reason that a fund raise will be required is to prepare the company for the future, factoring in possible further mishaps. The same reasons why countless companies have carried out fund raises in the past year. Anyone thinking the worst is all behind us now is being very optimistic. The date of 12th April for reopening shops is still an 'at best' scenario & is by no means a certainty!
Paddy you’re double counting the downside then. You can’t say I only care for profit not ebitda and then say the lease liabilities aren’t included. The profit figure includes the lease liabilities and all. So if you use your £50m of pure profit then a debt load of £90m looks very manageable also considering that the profit figure includes the interest cost! So you’re double counting the down side
EBITDA is used as that’s the view of the operating business before the capital structure. So if we do an RI and get rid of the debt then profit becomes the EBITDA figure
The FY20 profit was £65m so we’d be inside the 2x cov even on that basis!
So I say again what on earth would the business need an RI for now? What would we spend the cash on?
A balanced view might cheer some of you up. Yes - poor management, long term decline in SP and profitability. But - many prefer impulse card and frippery buying to internet rip off pigs from the moon, school kids / parties / birthdays / balloons / banners and bunting will return, CF will benefit from Chancellor give aways for the High St, new CEO should increase distribution channels and online while reducing less profitable stores, CF has high profit margins and benefits from stronger £. If you're gonna go on and on and on about the downsides, it's probably a good idea to point out some of the good sides. SP after any (hopefully sensible) refinancing looks set to rise and a doubling or trebling of MV net of the relatively modest debt is more likely than possible.
Danl, i do not accept EBITDA as a true measure of a companies worth. It is an accounting measure used to gloss up the books. A better measure is pure profit. Without getting too intricate with the numbers, CFs profits have been falling steadily for the last 5 years or so from £100m+ in 2015/16, down to just over £50m pre covid. The SP has fallen at an even more dramatic rate from a high of @400,down to @100 just before Covid hit. It then plummeted like most shares did hitting a low of 22p. It has hovered generally in the range 35-50 for most of the pandemic. Various highs & lows. There is lots of talk about where the SP may go in the future but there is really no reason why the pre covid trend will not continue, (trend is your friend as the saying goes!). As Scorpion has stated a lot of business has been swallowed up by online competition & there will be the large debt & lease liabilities to deal with. These factors will have not escaped the attention of the bankers/backers & i would expect part of their negotiations would be a restructure of the business moving forward. Sunak's business grants may provide short term relief for sure but will not replace the need for refinancing. It will be interesting where they decide to go here but i suspect a decision will only be announced when new CEO comes in which is 8th March i believe.
@paddy not answering my point?
@scorpio you don’t think management will have factored this into their models? Since then £ got higher so called sets are falling and £6m about to land to cover this unwind. Add to that that online sales are beating expectations
Being such a well versed advisor you’d know there will be a management case and downside case. On all fronts we are seeing clear upside to the forecasts.
Oh and let’s not forgets model was for stores to open end of April and this is even sooner
£80m EBITDA will sort out any cash crunch. Bank just need to bridge the gap
yes, your strategy is buy high, sell low, you've already stated so. Good luck with that! i look to buy at a value price. if you get the bottom that's great but i buy when i can see good reward for limited risk. Simples really!
The other liquidity issue people fail to mention is that one of the ways most consumer companies have survived has been to turn off their suppliers and stop paying their landlords. This has to reverse and there is a mega working capital outflow to come
Fundamentals you are obviously stressed & that is why you resort to abuse. Advocating that a £160m mkt cap company should use the equivalent of Wonga.com for their financing shows you do not know what you are talking about. You should jog on before you lose more pocket money lad!
fundamentals. Do you know what a bridging loan is? i am very familiar with this as i have a BTL property portfolio. Bridging loans are horrendous & are not for the faint hearted. They are short term in the most short termist way. A company the size of CF despite it's financial woes does not need this type of funding. A RI or placing is a cost effective way of raising finance. I'm not sure why people are against it. yes the SP takes a hit short term but long term you have a sustainable future!