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Cards Direct seems to be rather a copy cat for our Factory. Only 61 stores currently. Anyone know much about this lot? Like ownership etc.?
The general UK downbeat retail sentiment is holding this down, as commented on this morning on BBC Radio 4 Morning programme by a CBI rep.
Love the positivity of this chat but is there anything we could have missed? I’m just surprised that we still have so many sells at this level when it feels obvious we will move up as we closer to results day
Becoming a little obvious this is being kept at the under 96p until they wade in
Oh if only I could have a pound for every post on every post that talks about market makers and their manipulation 😊😊😊
Though I have noted in the past few weeks quite a few buys at the 100k each level… such and easy way to double your money in time to to come
Onsolidground...
Do not worry,Market Makers wnt to keep price low as are needding shares for big buyers that they know about as well as for themselfs.You may see such buyers long after normal trading day is finished. Weak holders tend to panic and sell . Stach
Tends to be large in the morning but settles down as more trades come in… looks like very few trades so far today… but also find it quite odd
Does anyone know where to get the number of shareholders there were at the end of each year sah from 2016 onwards? I know I could EPS but I want something to cross reference it with … thanks
Why such a large spread?
Its counterproductive to getting people to buy the shares?
That’s the the thing… the market knows the high guidance but it’s not reflected in the share price… at the same time card were very clear on the fact they couldn’t pay dividends until FY24 is over so all these peaks and then drop offs leading up to results day feel a little odd… though appreciate for some it’s about taking profit. I’d be happy if we can just stabailsie at the 1.10-1.15 region and then a divi announcement which let’s be honest at worst case could be a year from now I would hope to be at the 1.30s. I’m in this for the long haul and my long term is 1.80 as per 2019 which I think is fully possible based on their current growth.
Things that are still in my mind is what they plan to do with their surplus cash now that their debt targets are achieved, they can’t pay a divi for FY24 and their expansion is a capex light model when we think about partnerships and franchises… their online is a lot better but Moonpig is still ahead when it comes to things like inserting pics in cards as well as videos that can be accessed through QR code… if Moonpig can afford this tech I don’t see why card factory can’t and they have to move with the times
It's now less than 4 weeks to go until the prelim res are announced on 30th April and I am excited to see the overall results, and particularly how they are improving the online offering.
While the SP is languishing around these levels I have had several small top-ups and am probably now as committed on CARD as I am prepared to go (it's now in my top 4 holdings).
I'm very positive about the short and mid-term prospects for CARD and I expect the SP will be >120p within the next 1-2 months on the way towards my mid-term target of 150p.
This has historically been a very good dividend payer, and as soon as the market gets a whiff of dividend reinstatement this will re-rate.
Good luck all holders!
Bhaven
Hi there.It will not be long for CARD holders to get to £1.25p for their share even before Annual Report . Of course The Company already knows that total earnings and the profits are indeed at the Top of Market's Expectations.They told us this in their last financial Report. Let us see if this time we get to £1.50/share. Stach
Looks right to what I’ve seen
Just been looking at their app and noticed they have a 3 for 2 offer on… feels very cheaper vs the competition
Found this. Don't know how accurate
Teleios Capital Partners GmbH
11.61 %
Artemis Investment Management LLP
8.603 %
Aberforth Partners LLP
8.476 %
JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd.
5.079 %
Jupiter Asset Management Ltd.
4.958 %
Hargreaves Lansdown Fund Managers Ltd.
3.851 %
22NW LP
3.188 %
Wellcome Trust Ltd. (Direct Investments)
3.106 %
BennBridge Ltd.
3.044 %
Stuart Middleton
2.666 %
Who are the 7 please
Just visiting friends over the weekend seeing lots of Easter cards much more than previous years
Hopefully cardy performed strong here
I think the city will take note if the company makes strides in achieving that 650m rev target for 2027 which should happen by end of FY25 … but I’m confident we should see a decent uptick by end of H1 at the latest as they have to spend all the cash they will have… be it share but back, dividends or investment that accelerates growth …reason I further believe this is I read that card have a lot of institutional investors … top 7 holders have around 52% of shares and these holders will shout for share price growth and have a seat at the table… the board willl need to keep them happy…it’s just a matter of time … looking forward to the EPS this year
As you just highlighted and I forgot to mention...think a bid is highly likely and the opportunity cost is worth it.
Curry's received a bid from one of the most astute operators out there...that is a pretty crap business. Card is probably now quite a bit cheaper on very clean earnings now vs. Curry's...and it has real sustainable competitive advantage.
Very few positions where you can feel the upside is very healthy vs. (I would argue) a pretty limited risk profile.
In this tough market, it's my favourite!!!
"socio-demograhic, the fact +80% of card purchases are by females adds to the lack of 'getting it' and its hard for them to understand that for many people xmas might be a budget of 80 quid for 6 loved ones and card factory allows them to fill an entire basket of cards and goodies"
Come to think of it, where i live, Bishops Stortford, I hardly ever see men in there, you really hit the nail on the head re females shopping,.
Also the £££ cost is very true. It also dawned on me that while i can afford dearer cards aka Clintons, I asked myself why should i / do i spend £££s on a card that is going in the bin a week later. Huge waste. Also what turned me onto CARD was the quality increased too without much of a price rise.
The one thing of note with my local store tho is that it is very small and as a result very limited with some of its offerings. I found the anniversary cards and surprisingly the mothers day cards to be very small in terms of choice..
my two penneth !!!
Good luck all and for those that do, Happy Easter
Well said ggrantsu nice overview
Time for action is coming though as this has been. Played for a good year now
Still don’t see any real indicators there is a seller around but don’t intrinsically look at all transactions
If the board don’t get fair value someone has to out there
Basically...we have a really big opportunity here. What is fair value? Well it certainly in my mind isn't a single digit PE, not for a business that throws off these margins (and growth)...and certainly not for a business with its competitive position / marketing leading position in an attractive sustainable niche.
I don't know where we end up, but certainly 1.50 would be a good start. interested to hear other views!
Nice to see some chat on here for once. I just cannot get my head around the lack of interest here...but to be honest, thats what makes it so exciting.
I've had many instances of things getting to extreme valuation levels over the past year and snapping back hard rapidly and near bagging. However, in terms of raw quality of business, and lack of complexity to the story, Card Factory takes the crown by a mile. At 6x earnings (potentially under 5x for january-26 YE), you get the highest margin / return on tangible equity (CF's is negative i.e. they have to put up no equity of their own to run the business and are completely financed by their payables / landlords) in the UK retail landscape. Additionally, you get one which is value focused and performingly strongly currently, with lots of growth upside in the form of gifting / baloons / international expansion. Customers are sticky, and competition is completely withdrawn e.g. Clintons + expensive crap selection of cards at supermarkets.
I find the online/moonpig debate quite funny...people who shop at card factory are never going to be spending 4-8x as much at moonpig. the obsession of the city and other people on here with online highlights why this is being so massively missed. as an earlier poster has said...you can't argue with the numbers. and the resilience of card buying has been clear for a long time.
I think you have a few big things going on here - 1) there is still a large seller, fine but that will at some point clear and so while this has been frustrating in terms of opportunity cost I don't want to miss the inevitable clearing of him which will alone send this much higher, 2) people in the city are rich males predominantly who really really do not get the clientele of card factory - more so than the different socio-demograhic, the fact +80% of card purchases are by females adds to the lack of 'getting it' and its hard for them to understand that for many people xmas might be a budget of 80 quid for 6 loved ones and card factory allows them to fill an entire basket of cards and goodies, 3) the card factory shopping experience is not appreciated unless you really travel around and spend time in the stores speaking with staff...they provide a truly excellent experience for everyone which other value retailers simply don't do - they are generally messy and grim to be in...every CF I've been into is immaculate, clean, nice lighting and staff that make you feel good; as was pointed out to me recently which I hadn't picked up on, every person who goes into card factory is buying something for a loved one...I can't think of any other retailer where every time you buy something its for someone else and part of a little emotional journey.
if I have one criticism...they have been far too slow to do something in terms of capital allocation ie a buyback with this seller around. they could create a lot of value!!
Interesting at the last agm 7.5 per cent wanted the chairman moody gone
Wonder who has a beef with him …..interesting that
I think they are sitting on a bid
Has to be nobbled at this price and pathetic it is stagnant
Plus the buyers get a chunky div as soon as they buy
Clearly market hates paper cards market in a store model but completely ignores the hard factual metric numbers
The lack of card rns are a disgrace they should be rns new stores
Hello Stach, agree with you. Bought 22000 the other day to add to my substantial investment in Card. Thought this would fly in January but it didn't. Some games of course... But it will fly sooner or later. Hoping for a nice rise leading to the results at end April. Obviously we're all awaiting dividend news. Hard to see turnover and profit not doing well what with extending product lines, improved online product, more stores, better systems, decent staff morale and management, more relationships and global reach, and a great and simple core product with lower costs than most competitors.
Hello to some old and good posters on this bb and to the newcomers, who stick to posting relevant to this share.
The full year results to be announced must be good as otherwise CARD would not be oppening new shops in various parts of the Country.The South African store should be profitable as well and I'm sure will be mentioned in that Report.
Just bought 55000 shares this morning and expect considerable share price rise from now on.In my own opinion CARD's share prices have been grossy undervalued for to long. Stach
FY24 sorry…