We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Copper inventories are going to be stretched very soon, so I expect the copper price to rise. Great time to hold CAML at a very low price with dividends paid regularly 👍
I just discovered the Sprott Copper Miners ETF:
https://www.hanetf.com/product/55/fund/sprott-copper-miners-esg-screened-ucits-etf-acc
It has 2% of its value in CAML.
Chilean state-run copper miner Codelco saw production fall 5.7% year-on-year in October to 128,000 metric tons, the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) said on Tuesday.
Your guess is as good as mine Rio, Glencoe, ATYM, farther afield Capstone Copper and Lundin Mining which is Caml like but bigger, the latter two are both Canada listed.
When I look at the charts Cu is holding up well over a 5 year period, Zn is flat and lead is up albeit marginally.
With Caml I like they have cash plus at the end of a capex cycle to cut and paste mining so happy to wait and see what happens.
Hi Raxfactor
Many thanks for the article but where do I invest? Am out of CAML for now and see PXC, AAL and BRWM as much better value
All opinions welcome
Nice read...
Goehring and Rozencwajg relook at copper inventories and suggest it is not signalling a recession, and for those investors who moved out of copper now might be an opportunity to reconsider re-entering.
https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/copper-inventory
" CAML is currently paying an 11% div"
Mb. That assumes final is the same as interim, which the co divi history tells you is not guaranteed. 2022's high metals prices fell way in 2023, so H1 FCF was halved to $24m, barely enuff to cover the 2022 final divi of 10p.
Mb the divi holds up, but mb it doesn't. Don't take that 11% for granted.
JTS13.
I believe that the global location of this company is its biggest negative.
I have repeatedly read in the past how the company is positioning itself to be of less interest to Russia and its Oligarchs.
At these valuations CAML is currently paying an 11% div so I am expecting to wee this SP rise into Xmas and Spring when the first div of the year is paid.
Copper bottomed out in Jul 2022 and is up over 20% since then. Its been in an upward consolidation pattern since. Whereas CAML, which was still over 2quid at that time, enjoyed a short rise to almost 3 GBP but has only continued to drop since. Yes, there has been some II selling, but the price drops seem so massively underdone. Zero rise when copper goes up, but consistent drops when it goes down. A well run company but terrible stock... perhaps the team should just reinvest their earnings into some random tech with no potential. IIs would probably rate this at 50FPE as a diversified tech play. Markets are a joke some times
Constructions seams to be picking up in the UK so the use of copper electrical cable will be back in demand.
Hopefully the demand for copper will be rising now.
Ah, US inflation data is positive.
Any reason known?
Some not so good data out from China giving mixed signals copper prices back down losing lot of there move higher
Https://www.economies.com/commodities/copper-news/copper-climbs-to-one-month-high-43618
Copper prices are expected to mount a modest recovery next year as burgeoning demand from the energy transition offsets global economic weakness and healthy mine supply, a Reuters poll showed. COMMODITYPOLL01
Copper prices have shed about 15% since touching the highest in more seven months in January, pressured by weak economic growth in China, fears of recession elsewhere and high interest rates.
"We see copper grinding higher over the course of 2024 as the two opposing structural trends persist - the struggles of China's property market on the one side and the energy transition on the other," said Carsten Menke at Julius Baer in Zurich.
The cash copper CMCU0 contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is expected to average $8,625 per metric ton in 2024, a median forecast of 28 analysts showed.
That is 3% weaker than the forecast in the previous quarterly poll, but 7% firmer than Tuesday's closing price of $8,029.
Analysts forecast a surplus of the metal used in power and construction this year of 112,000 metric tons, with oversupply rising to 302,500 tons next year, up 61% from the previous poll in July.
Two US lead and zinc mines going on care and maintenance at the end of the month, low prices beginning to have effect on mines at he higher end of the cost curve.
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/nyrstar-says-to-suspend-operations-at-two-us-zinc-mines-2023-11-01
The global zinc market surplus widened to 22,000 metric tons in August from 2,900 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed on Tuesday. During the first eight months of the year, the global surplus was 489,000 tons, up from a surplus of 156,000 tons in the same period last year.
The global lead market surplus widened to 47,600 metric tons in August from 26,200 tons in July, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed on Tuesday. During the first eight months of 2023, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 71,000 tons versus a deficit of 141,000 tons in the same period of 2022.
Maybe there is isn't going to be as much copper about as people first thought, especially if this production loss is replicated elsewhere.
Although these are huge numbers financially and production wise it highlights how much of a minnow Caml is in the mining world.
SANTIAGO (Reuters) -Chile’s Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, on Thursday posted a 65% drop in its pre-tax profit for the first nine months of the year, pulled down by lower production and higher operating costs.
Codelco’s pre-tax profit over that period totaled $917 million.
The state-owned miner, whose credit rating was recently downgraded amid lower prices and copper output, added that copper production between January through September fell 9% to 966,000 tonnes.
Core earnings over the nine month period totaled $3.24 billion, a 31% drop from the year-earlier period, while production costs spiked nearly 30% to reach $2.04 per pound.
The state copper producer announced earlier this month a leadership shakeup, just weeks after a new chief executive took office as the company takes a lead on negotiations with private lithium miners to increase state control over the industry.
Ditto dadean
If this goes to a £1 I'll load up the proverbial truck and take the ride back to £3 in the following years
Agreed, I suspect we shall hear an update in the near term on a new mining prospect.
This will be a poor time for owning copper businesses but a good time if your looking to buy them like caml is