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But as the months and years of cyclical-bull rallying mount up, naturally the background level of fear steadily fades. So on average as bulls mature, fears of a big selloff (even a correction) wane dramatically. And with fewer traders motivated to sell rapidly, toppings become even more drawn out. Thus probabilities favor major topping processes lengthening as a bull market slowly matures. And with our current cyclical bull being born way back in March 2009, we are now nearly 38 months into it! The average lifespan of previous mid-secular-bear cyclical bulls in modern history is just under 35 months each. So our current cyclical bull is definitely getting long in the tooth, drawing out toppings and pushing the VXO to lower floor levels than we’d have any chance of seeing early in a bull. By these later gradual-topping standards, we haven’t yet seen enough time between various milestone VXO lows first being hit and today. And this comparison looks even more lopsided if the month between the latest SPX interim high and now is subtracted out. Thus in VXO-decay-curve terms, it sure looks like the SPX hasn’t topped yet but is probably on course to sometime in the next couple months or so. Naturally we are closely watching this unfolding topping process in the bunker. It is very important. While the best case is this coming topping merely precedes another mid-bull correction, there is a good chance it may actually mark the end of this cyclical bull. And if that proves true, we are in for another brutal cyclical bear that will probably batter the SPX back down near its secular support at 750 over a couple of years! While cyclical bears can indeed be very profitably traded on both the short side and long (sharp bear-market rallies), the necessary trading strategy is radically different from what works in cyclical bulls. If you haven’t traded through a cyclical bear before, or even worse don’t know one is upon you until too late, you are probably going to get slaughtered. Thankfully we can help you navigate whatever is coming. xxxxxxxxxxxx...............................
Is this your little quiet corner where you give yourself a pep talk.....note to sector no3..put the kettle on and make a cuppa please...lol..ATB
You really have got to laugh ,talk on CNBC of the Yanks saying they are decoupling from Europe and deluding themselves that they dont have megabillions of debt as well.........................the poor deluded fookers lol .....................
U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner said yesterday that the U.S. won't hit the debt limit (ceiling) unitl late in the year. Zerohedge has projected that the debt limit of $16'394 billion will be hit on September 14th, 2012. Presently the National Debt is at $15'596 billion according to the debt clock. The present GDP is at $15'088 billion. September 14th is about 5.5 months away so if we add 1.125% (roughly 2.5% annualised) to GDP we would get GDP at around $15'258 billion. The National Debt is expected to hit $16'394 billion on September 14th so the debt to GDP ratio would be 107.4% versus a present level of 103.4%. The other worrying factor is the political one as the Republicans will most probably make it very difficult for the Obama administration to raise the debt limit prior to the November elections. The National Debt hit 100% of GDP on December 21st, 2011. At the current rate it will be at 109% of GDP by the 21st of December, 2012! We all know the power of compounding interest! We should hit 118.81% of GDP by the December 21st, 2013, 129.5% by 2014, 141.15% by 2015 and 153.86% by December 21st, 2016. Scary stuff I would say. I also expect Fed chairman Bernanke to keep a close eye on these numbers and be ready to start the printing press again just in case economic growth slows down. After all slower economic growth means less income with which to service the national debt!
There are two MARS-URANUS oppositions this year, one on April 20th 2012 (heliocentric) and the other on July 19th 2012 (geocentric) Mars-Uranus oppositions have always been dreadful for stock market. (the last heliocentric opposition was on May 17th 2010 - 11 days after flash crash) Also, on June 25th we will observe a geocentric JUPITER-NEPTUNE square (heliocentric square is in August 2012) which can mean "a bust will follow a boom", increasing the likelihood of recession. (the most recent heliocentric jupiter-neptune squares occured in June 2006 and December 1999) Stock market weakness can continue into October-November 2012, which will witness Mars-Uranus squares. If a recession erupts this year it is very likely that Obama will not be re-elected and 1-2 months after New President's inauguration day stock market finally bottoms (February or March 2013) Lastly, SATURN will be in SCORPIO between October 2012-September 2015, which has always been a very US dollar-friendly environment. (the last episode in the years between 1983 and 1985)
Thanks for the info.. I see we have hijacked a new board. Nice name but not as good as mine....
Message flagged Friday, 17 February 2012, 16:11BPC, I dont know if they are waiting on news or anything fundamental about them at all so this only what I see on the chart, quick chart attached for her. Stoch, rsi etc all going into overbought area but there is still room for a good few %s above them yet, the price is getting support off the 200EMA and apears to be forming a wee bull flag, it needs to break and close above that rising line (acting as resistance) at 12.42ish to move up to the level, the 50EMA is catching up and if /when that crosses you should see around the 15ish area, alot of resistance around 14.50 to 16.0.
Ok KingSaab..will let you know how I get on..cheers and catch up on RRL but kp an eye on this board..usually Sector B and Hearts and a few come on for a laugh..
Hated that Broxy anyway..always negative..lololol. You did well on that cat d sale buddy. One thing : 150 bhp brilliant but when I lifted clutch..no problems as such but car seem to be eager to move forward. I've owned plenty..never had clutch problems..whats my best bet to check clutch ok? cheers.
Thanks. Been after a winter runner. Saab 9-3 tid 55 plate 106k fsh. Cat d front bumper..very light. Full mot/6 months tax. He had it on ebay at 2300..didnt sell. I've seen it..he'll take 1950. I know abt clutch/flywheel but all seems fine.??
ELTOE
but for me, crazy share to trade. Up and down like bipolar yo-yo on speed. Out with microscopic profit and lasting nightmares about spread. Luck all..
is the mighty CAM. Been a good week here despite market woes, although next week might be the tester. GL to any holders out there.
week's rns http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201108251200030222N certainly keeps one's feet firmly on the ground! Don't get carried away now lads...
Have to go now...will keep an eye on you both ;) Behave + go carefully with the trading x x
Sb and $$$..blown a fortune but lpx..eneg..rrl..xtr will get me back something..catch up soon. Sb..tell $$$ abt our plan..move in when we see a little knob? Lol
Hope you havent lost too much money lately!! + are you still playing around with many shares at mo? Hope you've still got those rental properties!!
Alive just abt..got rid of sb thank god..hes just a sxx pest..
sb, bye for now :) x x robin, hi there stranger, how are you?
Oh look whats just turned up lol Evening reliant -) Miss i have to go now and be a taxi ,leave you in the capable hands of 292 ,be good and catch up soon XXX p.s dont touch the banks and wait for the drop -)
Nope..commited suicide and came bk as a property developer!!
Xxx
Are many of the guys still around, Hearts, Wickham? Ive seen robin posted on here so he's still about, is he doing ok too? A book, hmm do you think it could be a best seller? Where do you see thes markets going/ i cant get over the price of some shares...banks + aim been hit massively!
Facecake i like it lol Ten ppounds for five trows eh -) Yeah a lot of people have taken some big hits ,wiped out quite a few ,thats the trouble with gambling ! Still in the game ,but with a lot more experience now . Are you going to write a book ?" How to lose weight by baking cakes............and being sick of the sight of them " LOL Can you do me a cheeky cheescake ??
I have a facebook cake page too now! Sad i know....