We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Some fantastic news for the people of LUTON this week as the Secretary of State confirmed he's not calling in the plans approved by Luton BC for the large mixed commercial retail development by the M1. CAL have fought this all the way, refusing to engage and work with the developer and the people of Luton who overwhelmingly support the scheme . CAL's CEO has tried every trick in the book to block it and has always maintained Newlands will decimate CAL's dreadful Mall. Well, he's now going to have his worst nightmare realised. Alongside M&S pulling out, and with DEB folding he can kiss goodbye to his 2 big anchor tenants. Replicate this across CAL portfolio and the business model is broken.
The M&S / DEB-effect isn't just on lost rentals, it's service charges too under threat, and it's the rolling impact on other stores which will see footfall suffer and in turn they will play hard ball on rental reviews and renegotiations as frankly city centre 'sub prime' Malls like CAL's in luton are where only the mediocre stores want to be.....yep, the yield at 14% looks very tempting, but how sustainable? It looked tempting when the share price was 35p and then more tempting at 30p, but like clothes out of fashion, it may get a whole lot cheaper yet.
Upwards-only rent reviews are now dead, high street shopping as we know it is dying and has to reinvent itself, the old business model of marginal operators like CAL is dead. Smell the coffee.
The retail estate investment trust’s (REIT) trading update for the second half of the calendar year showed Debenhams accounting for almost 6% of its total income and renting 340,000 sq ft from it
Its not just loss of rent but unallocated service charge ,blighting and downward pressure on existing rents
Rivets popping as others following the CVA route and a sword taken to book values
Retail property investment sector once considered super prime rerated
Gutted for staff, suppliers & creditors .......landlords and equity holders are going to get a hit here..equity wiped out, bond holders call the shots. Admistrators have no choice but to demand immediate rental cuts across CAL portfolio. Make no mistake , if Mike Ashley then buys the shell from the administrators, CAL are stuffed regarding ANY existing rental,assumptions. High street retail on its knees, top shop next? Can't see how CAL are going to fill those empty stores - M&S , DEB huge shop,floor space going to take a miracle to fill it. Rentals - and then cash flow, and then divi's - are all heading one way.
Looks cheap at 25p but won't if it's 15p in 6 months time. People buying DEB at 5p thought it a bargain. DYOR?
How can you fill the space vacated by M&S and Debenhams with more "low rent community space" and not take a further big hit on rentals?
This is being tarred along with high street retailing even though low rent community shopping isnt as badly affected.
Big discount to NAV and dividend yield, how much bad news is already in the price?
I think a lot will depend on how Brexit plays out.
Perhaps the London malls could be sold to re invest elsewhere or to reduce debt. Time will tell
Results - in short worrying. Oh dear, Laughable Larry the CEO who seems to attract self-inflicted mistakes - ask the Board of 2020 inc his recent goof that alleged they have been trying to poach 3 of his tenants in Luton - has just dropped another clanger.....however hard he tries to get his new CFO ( an inside appointment after a failed external recruitment exercise) to window dress this, these results are v worrying if you ar long: Losses deepening, NAV falling, and debt increasing. How long before covenants breached Larry?
And it's going to get worse - Luton BC this week approved a large out of town mixed use development just 3 miles from CAL's tired & dreadful Mall. CAL campaigned long and hard against this citing it would damage irreparably the Mall and town centre. You make your own mind up. Either way it's getting worse which is why Loopy Larry is going to Judicial Review at a cost of millions in expert legal fees. Why? Because the guy is on a testosterone trip & can't swallow being beaten?
But don't worry about your investment folks, at least the dividend is safe and sound as some of you have been spouting. Oh no, hang on a minute............
By the way, my short is doing just fine. This is heading one way, just like high street retail. You decide which way - up or down?
Always a worry when a company dilutes or borrows to prop up dividend price. This companies performance has been nothing short of appalling. Could probably absorb the losses if it was in any other sector, but retail? The attitude of this company with community in Walthamstow tells me this company is finished.
Loans to fund dividends to share holders again, with retail markets getting hammered, not the best market to be in.
This company is finished, out of touch, out of their depth. An Australian CEO with no idea of community. Their business in Luton is over.
A completely mis managed company. Debt up, dividends have been slashed, and futile legal battles. Three good reasons why not to invest in this company.
Oh dear, Laughable Larry the CEO who seems to attract mistakes - ask the Board of 2020 inc his recent goof that they have been trying to poach 3 of his tenants in Luton - has just dropped another clanger.....however he has tried to get his new CFO ( an inside appointment after a failed external recruitment exercise) to window dress this, these results are dreadful. Losses deepening, NAV falling, and debt increasing.
Don't worry about your investment folks, at least th dividend is safe. Oh no, hang on a minute it's been savaged too......my short is doing fine.
Oh dear, you have put the final bullet in your own foot. Disgraceful company.
Bad news for CAL on its way.... Newlands will be recommended for approval by LBC PLanning Officer. CAL have consistently said if is goes ahead it will be the ruin of their dross shopping offer at the Mall, Luton. With M&S and now Debenhams set to announce pulling out of the Mall, CAL are up against it. They have pulled out all the stops to object and get Newlands rejected....now the final last gasp throw of the dice - very expensive barristers and QC's racking up millions in legal bills to seek a judicial review - exactly what a "community based" shopping offer like CAL should be doing with its shareholders money? I don't think so. The divi is under threat, cash flow burning. DYOR.
https://www.lutontown.co.uk/news/2019/march/newlands-recommendation/
Its walthamstow where they intend to build flats, I have read they are planning a 7 million pound investment to upgrade the Luton mall which seems to tie in with the proposed new football stadium development in the town.
Can someone please advise who actually owns the land the "proposed flats" are to be built on?
I am pretty sure CAL do not own the land "the mall" is built on in Luton, I would be highly suprised if they own any land in Luton.
Their total lack of investment, in their properties and the community within Luton, does worry me very considerably.
Great news for Luton Town FC..... the planning officers have recommended the planning application for Power Court be approved. More bad news for this company .
Luton doesn't sound good but the other London Malls are doing ok. 60% discount to NAV is pricing in a recession like 2008. Once Brexit is resolved this could look a lot different.
Nice idea.....flats above car parks in the ghost land that is Luton's town centre after 6.00pm when C&R lock down the entire area? I don't think so, who would possibly want to live there? CAL's cash flow is coming under threat and even its pathetic attempt to describe itself as "community shopping" falls on deaf ears....since when has debenhams been"community shopping"? However, good luck with the NAV - it's based on amortising cash flow from rentals which are only going one way - DOWN! As is the share price. At my current buy-in target of 15p I will reconsider - as it may go lower and 10p is starting to look a possibility.
meanwhile the shorts are doing fine. Down another 3% today - happy new year.
NRR have identified space above their Mall car parks to build flats, there will always be community shopping on low rents which is what C&R do. Perhaps the cash flow could be used for development rather than dividends going forward to extract the value in the land. It looks like Intu are going down this route. It could even be taken private as the owner already owns 20% of the shares.
BottomFisher, very good point, well made. I would have thought that the land would be worth something as building plots. I don't think that the value of the land is sufficient to pay off this companies debts.
Most of the Malls are around London, I think there is hidden value here as the land could be used for housing as announced for Walthamstow
I like to thoroughly research any potential company I invest in. This one didn't take long. One visit to the Luton Mall was enough to tell me that this shopping centre isn't one that I'd ever venture anywhere near in the future, and I would anticipate that it won't be functioning in 5 years time. With online shopping destroying the High Street, this Mall must be in line for closure . There were more shoplifters than shoppers, and the place was awash with Police. I felt extremely uncomfortable. I can't see this company being able to pay a dividend for much longer, especially with the massive debts that this company has. My recommendation would be a definate sell!
Was in their flag ship Mall in Luton over Christmas & New Year.....footfall isn't there, sales in the likes of Debenhams, Top Shop , Marks & Spencer continue falling.....CAL's response is to fill their empty shop,space with bucket shop discount stores at much reduced rentals/free rental on sign up....New Year's day the place was deserted, like a ghost town. Their divi looks attractive,on paper but I can't see it being maintained as they will be draining cash. AND they are about to embark on a long drawn out legal action in Luton which will provide a nice little earner for top London QC's but at what cost to their cash flow?
This is heading to below 15p IMHO at which point they will try and flog off assets to raise cash - perhaps Luton BC might take the dreadful Mall off their hands?
I will continue to watch and may buy as a punt when it slips below 15p. DYOR and don't forget the debt pile and retail isn't looking good for 2019. Happy New Year
to clarify this was 2016 but the message is clear "effective control of the town centre retail offer" totally against any community and seeking a stranglehold regardless of location.
Property developer Capital & Regional today said it has purchased a third property in Hemel Hempstead and said it now has "effective control of the town centre retail offer".
Capital & Regional said it bought Fareham House in Hemel Hempstead in an off-market transaction for GBP7.8 million, adding the property is adjacent to the Marlowes shopping centre and Edmonds Parade, which it acquired in January and February.
The property developer said it now has the opportunity to consolidate all three into a single dominant town centre scheme, which, in total, would provide 340,000 square feet of retail space and 1,200 car parking spaces.
(Alliance News)