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40p finish u/t
Exactly same pattern as Friday, been adding on this slow drift down all day as this morning it was NT for about £500 for time..someone is using the closing and opening auction to shift some big buys in this.
Rising well into close , bodes well for tomorrow
Some good signs from the similarweb data from May now showing that visits Marginally up again on jd williams which shows that The home sales are still holding out late May. Then what’s even more promising is simply be that is mainly clothing visits up 15% in May compared to April.
Both the above websites are now getting similar website visits to December 2019 which is peak trading period so very promising. A lot of this rebound appears to be driven by organic hits also which is once again very promising.
Jacamo visits seem to finally be recovering with May up 26% on April although still somewhat below pre covid but Jacamo is the least efficient marketing whereby a lot needs to be spent for sales, so it would make sense that a dramatic reduction in marketing would substantially reduce these visits so good to see this bouncing back.
Ambrose Wilson and home essentials both continuing to see good visitor growth between 5-10% on April.
Oxendales also bounced back 12% to peak trading levels.
It looks like the worst is very much behind us, the only one that still seems to be struggling is premier man which makes up a very small portion of revenue anyway. If these results and visitors are being achieved and marketing is still at the very low levels this bodes very well in my opinion.
19th may appologies wring board
What RNS?
KSH interesting im watching waiting for any kind of pull back though it looks like a big rerate coming especially with todays rns
2/2
Cont.
Therefore I have a change in EBITDA of -£52.6m for gross profit, + savings of 3.5m + 126m + 23.25m = pretty much bang on £100m increase in EBITDA. Now if I add this change in EBITDA on to adjusted FY 19 EBITA. We have EBITDA of 128m (LY) + 100m = 228m. Less depreciation and Amortisation which i'll assume are the same as FY19 Adjusted operating profit of = 228m - 30m = £198m. The bulk of n browns finance costs relate to the loan book, this is charged based on US Commercial paper rates. These now constitute absolute peanuts, so a combination of this reducing substantially and n brown already paying off some debt should lead to a reduction in at least half (£14m * 0.5) = 7m. Given that they have drawn more on the RCF I'll reduce this saving to just £5m to be prudent. That gives an adjusted profit before tax of £198m - (14.3-5)= £189m. I dont think you'll find a company that can feasibly achieve an adjusted profit before tax of £189m with a market cap of £60m anywhere in the world. And this can be achieved through the most difficult times in recent history. N brown is built for these times and i'm sure many will be surprised by the full year results in a years time. I have pulled this together very quickly so if anyone spots any errors please do let me know. Realistically, even with my prudent assumptions an adjusted PBT of 189m is incredible. Even if the result is half of this, that puts it at a similar level to FY19 when the share price was 5x as much
OK hands-up this is total copy and paste from the other BB - but worth a read to understand how under valued this really is:
Okay so the below figures are from a combination of the most recent covid trading statement and also last FY Figures. Apologies in advance for the long post. I'm taking a view of this coming year so March 2020- February 2021 and building in the covid impact from what they have mentioned, please feel free to correct me if anything seems wrong. I'll effectively be rolling the trading update through the full year. Okay so revenue first Apparel sales FY19 - £412.3m Home & Gift FY19 - £203.5m FS FY19 -£298.6m So we know that product margin from the financial statements was 52.1% in FY 19. For simplicity i'm going to make the assumption that Apparel margin is 54% and Home & Gift is slightly lower at 48% (i've plucked these from thin air so willing to change). Rolling through the impact of covid - 48% reduction in apparel and 74% increase in Home. On a FY basis Apparel revenue reduction 48% equals £197.9m. Margin at 54% leads to a reduction in gross profit of £107m. Home & Gift - £203.5m Sales, up 74% thats an increase in revenue of £151m. Margin at 48% increase in gross profit of £72m. Lets also assume that while the group said FS is still strong and steady at the moment that some of the lost sales flow through to a reduced loan book over time. So i'll assume a 10% decrease in Fs revenue of £29.8m, gross margin is higher here at 59.2% so therefore a reduction in gross profit of £17.6m So to start off looking at gross profit, assuming the dire clothing sales continue which you could argue is unlikely with lockdown being lifted that leads to a reduction in gross profit of -107 + 72 - 17.6 = £52.6m and i'd say thats being very prudent. Now lets look at the cost base. Warehouse and fulfillment costs are equal to 9.2% of revenue so if we have a reduction in revenue of £77m as per the above calcs one would assume that the costs would drop. I'll assume here that not all of the costs are variable so i'll pluck out of thin air that half of these would reduce in line with revenue. So that would be a reduction of £7m, then i'll take half of that so a £3.5m saving for the full year. Next is the big one - marketing. LY Marketing was £157.8m, as per the trading statement they have said that they have reduced marketing by an absolutely astonishing 80%. Thats a saving of £126m. Next admin and payroll Last years costs were £128m. Once again as per the trading statement 30% of staff are furloughed. So 30% of 128m is 38.4m and lets say the government are paying the 80% and n brown are topping up the 20%. So therefore thats a reduction of £31m for a full year. Furlough lasts until october so in this next FY that will be a saving of 9 months worth so 9/12*31m = 23.25m. Some people may be getting their salary topped up above the limit of £2.5k a month but also there are vacancies on hold, board pay reductions etc so i will stick with a £23.25m savi