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Never meant to ramp AMGO!! Best to talk about BUR here as this is what we are all concerned about My reply regarding AMGO was in response to someone who posted as cut your loss on Bur and invest in Amgo We have far more pressing issues with BUR Amgo is not for seasoned investors in BUR So yeah I agree with your comment But I still think the risk reward of Amgo is well worth taking
I am already in big way in Amigo This will make or brake by Mar 30 when the court case is done and dusted But you have to ask the question, why such a big Ii such as JPM would pump in over 6% of the shares if they did not know what is coming These institutions are not in a business to just throw good money away They invest to double or more their investment So I am quite confident that AMGO will survive and thrive Just it will take a year or two before the share are back to over a pound
There are a lot of disappointed bulls in this stock, including myself. Waiting for the price to go up so we can sell, and when it does rise, holding on for a bit more, but then it drops back again. And there we are, still invested. Cue for more frustrated posts, blaming the BoD, MW, MMs, short sellers, complicated accounts, opaque business model etc. Now the price on NYSE is at an “all time low”, apparently, although it has only been quoted there since September. To me, all this bearish talk holds all the signs of excessive gloom. I console myself with the thought that the YPF claim, even assuming the low end of the range of outcomes, exceeds the entire market capitalisation of BUR. The rest of the business, even if we don’t fully understand it, is in the present price for nothing. To sum up, we should hang on until the YPF claim either settles or eventually comes to a decision.
It's always good to hear critical comments. Many thanks.
The figure of 1300-1400 would arrive by employing a (revised) Graham and Dodd method. This involves a 50% margin of error, thus the 650-700p purchase range.
It will be interesting to see what the effect of last year's results will be, and I'll patiently await.
I agree there are a lot of interesting plays out there and some if these have a substantial weight on the portfolio. I never thought that the US listing would suddenly produce more demand (a rather naive assumption), nor that it will suddenly recover to previous heights (where the company was hopelessly overvalued).
There is a very good reason I never took a position in MANO for eg, which is still overvalued despite a 40% haircut.
Everyone has to have their own framework on how to approach this. Within mine there is still room for a little patience with BUR, whose contributions to my performance were flat for the last year. It would take a bit longer for me to begin contemplating opportunity losses.
The hard, bottom line figures on the next return will decide a lot going forward. No matter how much their BOD is trying to ramp their results.
I like your optimism about the true value of the Shares!! 1300-1400 is nothing but a pipe dream If we get to 800 I would say we have achieved true value The sad thing is the company sold us the idea that by registering in US somehow it would open the doors to fantastic opportunities to be able to raise capital to invest in potentially profitable cases Well that my friends had stalled just look at the support the company has got from the potential US investors we are at all time low over there So much for US investors piling in on this wonderful and the larger litigation company in the world Look at the way market see this company over here twice bought than sold and SP tanks in the close One should have known better when the update RNS was issued past 12Pm the SP touched 750 for 10 seconds!!!’ And ended the day over 6% down Are we blind or what market told us what they thought of the RNS , yet here we have guys who paint such a Rosy picture of this most complicated and good for nothing company Talking in terms of years before this will turn the corner, we should all take a lesson from the US investors and cut our loses and move on there are companies in the market that go up by 60/70/80% in one day Can anyone here ever imagine BUR to go up by even 10%? Listen to what the market is telling they are not always wrong
At present the returns don't look as good as they should be. An ROE of 8-9% is OK, but it's not the kind of return one would expect from a business with a distinct competitive advantage, or in a runaway growth period.
Nobody knows whether this represents a temporary setback (ie lumpy period) or a broken business model. For that it would need a bit more time (years) to establish. Unfortunately, that whole COVID thing skewed the picture enormously.
Did you value the company? What's your fair value? Mine still hovers around 1300 - 1400 with a resulting buy in the 650-700p range tops (which is why I'm in here in the first instance).
Situations like this can work out really well. I am not going as far as assume that their business is broken (for now). It doesn't take a huge amount of intelligence or digging to realise that Woodford's holdings would face enormous pressure given that his fund faced (industry leading) liquidity issues. I could have written a paper that I've shorted BUR because Bogard reversed his car over my cat, and be proven right given that the price tanked as any liquid positions had to be sold.
You only have two options. Either you see this as a business able to compound at above-average returns over the years (needs a bit more evidence in the coming years) and hold (or top-up on weakness), or you cut your losses and reduce or totally stop having a position here.
Complaining about the BOD won't help since if they could manipulate the share price they would face custodial sentences. In my opinion they reported way too frequently---which is a bit suspect in my books.
I am still long BUR but I am awaiting the coming result with disproportionate amounts of curiosity.
I have had ‘ blind faith ‘ since two years ‘ in Burford for the business model and directors . I have difficulty in understanding the 25% drop since the USA quote and can’t understand why the MW should still weigh on investors since there complaints were never justified - I would appreciate any comments as to why before plunging back in .