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I remember seeing it stated that the valuation of YPF was $19 billion dollars before any news around the announcement of a re-nationalization of the shares took place, now if investors knew that was possibly coming, of course the YPF shares would naturally slide in value, any type of news like that would diminish the share price value , so the true open market value of those shares should be taken at around the average 10 days share price before any news broke around any re- nationalization news coming out. That works out at $9.310 million for the 49% of the remaining shares, so add on interest from 2012 to 2022 at even the basic and lowest amount of 6% from the formul they used to expertly calculate any potential settlement amount , and it adds up to around $5.586 million add the $9310 million to that and you get $14.896 million. Now that's the lowest interest in the formula , also I believe it's a fair basic calculation amount,
The somewhat official calculus was taking the highest PE ratio over the two years prior to Argentina's notice for a Re-nationalization or expropriation if you like, so whatever way you calculate this it's still a massive settlement award, running into billions, and still leaving Burford with a basic yes basic LOL award of $14.896 million or converted £12.317 million stirling , and with a possible 50% discount, burford could settle for £6.158,500 and 60% of that is just burfords alone, and that should be £3.6951 million for our shareholders alone to add to our balance sheet and obvious share and much needed revaluation.
Because of the massive amounts mentioned here and customary big discounts it's obvious that if Argentina won't come to the negotiating table in the next few months then they are just stalling around absolutely everything, they know, we know roughly , what might be acceptable to both parties here and right now, so these colossal amounts of calculations should be somewhat irrelevant and seen as just close settlement indicators , and both parties should knock their heads together after judgement day and get this settled once and for all for a repsol amount of money and seen as a fair commercial Argentinean and American lead great judgement day.
In their final deposition, Buford actually claimed $8.4b, before pre judgement interest. That was on the basis of taking the mid point share price of YPF, between the date Arg announced their intentions, and the actual date of acquisition. There is no legal basis for using this mid price (unless arrived at by negotiation or arbitration) so JP might find it difficult to go for that. Instead she might play safe (whilst showing favour to Argentina) and go for the actual acquisition date, giving the lower figure of $5b. Still, surely she would be sympathetic to awarding pre judgement interest, so the total would come to a healthy $10b. Based on the 2019 Accounts (net of sales and expenses) that would still give net $4.5b to Burford. I would take that, but definitely resist more attempted discounting .
Jlovie it's ironic that the person / Cristina Kirchner, who has essentially cost the Argentine state billions of dollars with the re-nationalization of YPF in past , is now lambasting the current Argentinean government over its current policies, what a absolute hypocrite , with her own policies coming back to roost right now, hopefully plenty of other Argentine politicians can remind her of this while getting it out there to the financially desperate Argentine public.
It's so so easy to rile the public up when the Argentina public is so desperate for their essential needs, food and heating and money right now , and with inflation at around 60% in that country, the whole world is experiencing a similar challenge, though not that exact level of inflation, a saber rattling politician like Cristina Kirchner can easily bring those distressed people onto the street's and cause absolute mayhem, and sees the easy opportunity and takes it to essentially make herself look like the knight in shining armour to save the Argentinean nation from it's current politicians, she's a political opportunists that doesn't seem yet to understand how to actually build a wealth creating country, Argentina has most of the natural tangible ingredients to build its economy up again, though it's ability to attain political stability and respect basic corporate international law , then causes a massive exodus of international corporate finance , and also corporations to fully develope Argentina, thus losing millions of jobs and the huge amount of tax raising opportunities.
It isn't easy to work out exactly what might happen with the YPF case , though I do see this going in Burfords favour, with a possible delay to the actual settlement formula and amount , it maybe sent to trial , but in the inbetween period Argentina might try to persuade burford to settle for a low $3 billion and even selling more sovereign bonds than that , to get burford its full $3 billion in hard cash , similar to repsol they just kept giving them sovereign bonds to sell until they got there $5 billion in hard cash. Now in saying all that this could still end up with a settlement formula of higher than $12 billion , in which case burford could still be looking at a discounted $5. Or $6 billion figure settlement amount. It all depends on how burford are actually looking at this case, they've lost nothing, they've already made a few hundred million profit, or they may just want $1 or $ 2 billion of hard cash in the bank to close this case down quickly before Argentina's public go buck mad about the state of their living standards and inflation, and a resistance to paying out $ billions to any foreign settlement amount, after all just look at the UK and the number of current strikes and anger over our current living standards and pay awards with inflation at only 9.1 inflation as apposed to Argentina's 60% inflation.
I think that Guzman, despite his left wing credentials, is probably more pragmatic and realistic than Kirchener. If this resignation indicates that her economic notions are in the ascendency, that is not good news for the Argies. Of course she was President when YPF was expropriated in 2012 so she will be identified with the huge cost of her reckless actions. So we can expect more intransigence and delay if she has anything to do with it, as she tries to dodge responsibility.