The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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I’m trying to find where I heard that this year we will be seeing a lot more PR announcements relating to Burford. Let’s hope this is the start as likely will do wonders for the share price.
Anyone know where I might have seen that ?
“Jon and I have together made significant investments in Burford's ordinary shares in recent years and now together have exposure to almost 10% of Burford's shares."
Like it 💥
There was an interesting thesis on Burford published in Value Investor Club recently, excerpted on twitter here;
Target price £32-38 for end of 2026.
Made up of core business £20-25, and YPF estimate in range of £11-22, with a stab at £15 as the median outcome.
There is also some useful commentary on the sustainability of ROCE etc in the business, flywheels etc, and a deliciously casual aside saying that Burford management have been in BA recently talking to the Milei team?! Sadly this comment is not evidenced further 🙂
The report will be publicly available on VIC 45 days after publication.
https://twitter.com/TheBenSchmark/status/1772286619296387255/photo/2
Judge Preska conveyed a powerful message: sovereign nations cannot be permitted to nationalize publicly listed firms without facing repercussions, thereby leaving investors vulnerable to such "sovereign" actions.
The promises made by the Republic of Argentina were essential to provide potential investors with assurances and enable a foreign nation with a tumultuous economic history to access U.S. capital markets and secure billions of dollars in investments to privatize a company.
From Sebastian marils x account, big thank you Sebastian.
Gla
* thanks Seb
Continuing move up today across the pond after we closed.. the market must like this snippet from the plaintiffs response…
“It is always appropriate to hold parties to their contractual promises -but when it comes to foreign governments and international capital markets, it is absolutely essential. Defendants' promises here were not offhand remarks or casual agreements. They were unusual-and unusually clear-commitments that were necessary to give would-be investors comfort and to allow a foreign nation with a
checkered economic past to access U.S. capital markets and raise billions of dollars.
If those promises can be shrugged off with impunity, Plaintiffs will be injured in the
short run, but everyone-investors and foreign governments alike—will lose in the
long run. This Court should uphold Defendants' clear promises and redress their
clear breaches.
Sometime before midnight Eastern Time today, Monday, judgment creditors will file a 90-page or so response to Argentina's Feb. 22 appeal and their own appeal to Judge Preska's ruling that relieved YPF of any wrongdoing.
The question is when or if plaintiffs will also have their own Amicus Curiae to respond Argentina's Amicus briefs filed by Brazil, Uruguay, Chile and Ecuador.
Here’s a link to podcast on Burford AI
https://law-disrupted.fm/ai-and-data-science-in-litigation-finance/
Not bad results coupled with Burford announcing they are in the process of buying £5 million worth of shares to satisfy a few bonuses imo BBH
Share price looking strong, don’t know what is moving it, could be rising with the FTSE, or was it the news on on SYSCO ?
I feel we’re heading back to the 1250’s, then it could be topsy turvy. Somethings going to break, can’t have the FTSE marching on and on.
Lots of discussion about Sysco on blue board - **Kuk1doh seems to be very knowledgeable. My understanding is Sysco want to be seen to distance themselves from the litigation they started as they need to keep the relationship with the meat suppliers in good shape hence that are blaming Burford for the *rinsing they are going to get albeit they will ultimately benefit from the settlement !?!
*Rinsing - multiple billions
**Kuk1doh - Cookie Dough?? 😂
Jared Dillian's(Mauldin Group) latest comment :
I got this from a reader who recently went to Argentina:
.."I just got back from BA and had a few anecdotes for you.
Not sure when you were last there but aside from Palermo and a couple other wealthy suburbs, the city felt like 70’s New York. People shooting up right outside major tourist sites; not pretty.
More importantly though, we had a guide drive us around and do all the sights for a few hours.
He was clearly a well-educated man and a pretty big Milei fan, but he was really
pessimistic about his chances. He got defeated in the congress the other day and they are just blocking anything he tries.
His bigger issue though was the power of the union in his opinion. He reckoned it is more powerful than the military and that they will have him gone before his term is out.
Apparently Macri is the only non-Peronist to see out a full term in over 50 years!
He thought the next 3 months were critical because the public is still fully behind him but unless he can break some of the union power in that time he will be gone before the end of the year.
Some of the laws there are insane but you probably know about some of them:
You have to pay an employee a full year salary if you fire them. Even if they only turn up to work once. So nobody wants to hire anybody.
And if a tenant stops paying you rent, you can’t kick them out for 6 years!.."
Jared :
"Never said it was going to be easy. It’s hard as crap. But as my man mentions here, Milei has the support of the public. I think it will happen.
Deferring to any of my other subscribers who live in Argentina. We are up significantly on our trades, and while it might be tempting to take profits, if Milei is successful, we will freeroll into 5x returns...."
My note:
-GGAL has progressed from $7 through $9 to $10 as at 12 months ago and today stands at $25.75;
-YPF has progressed from $4 through $4.30 to $ 9.50 as at 12 months ago and today stands at $ 19.98;
One commentator's POV.
FYI, NAI, DYOR
Just Brilliant news TWT , let's get that money back into Burfords coffers ASP. That's a big one ok.
Also excellent find " Bluewiley " FT YPF article ,
let's get our share price well above £12 , hopefully that sysco news will get well received by the USA investors and marked up accordingly.
Gla
💥Excellent find TWT
Further text from article from today… Burford encroaching on YPY via the appeal will in my opinion help expedite a settlement with Mr Milei
“ Milei has said that YPF, in which Argentina expropriated 51 per cent of shares in 2012, would need to be “rebuilt” before he would sell state shares, which are worth roughly half of what they were in 2011.
Horacio Marín, the oil industry executive Milei appointed chief executive of YPF, said on an investor call that his plan to divest from less profitable sectors, improve efficiency and invest in liquid natural gas export infrastructure would “multiply the value of the company in the next four years”.
But Daniel Dreizzen, director of energy consultancy Aleph Energy, said previous YPF leaders had attempted similar reforms and met fierce resistance inside the company and among provincial governments.
“It’s possible the [direction of travel] Milei has set for the company will give Marín the leverage he needs to finally overcome that resistance,” he said. “But a lot will depend on his ability to manage the political and economic conditions, just like it will for Milei. YPF is like a mini-Argentina.”
From an article in the FT
“Under Milei-appointed management, energy group YPF, in which Argentina’s state holds a 51 per cent stake, has increased prices, previously held far below global market rates, by almost 180 per cent since November. The New York-listed group, which has a market capitalisation of almost $9.5bn, has announced plans to divest from mature oil and gasfields to prioritise more profitable shale assets in Patagonia. “
Meanwhile, YPF-s market cap ia around 10 bn usd.. ...
Burford is going to collect thus the the share price is cheap and I’m continuing to add .. it’s just a case of when will they collect but when they do or announce meaningful discussions I would expect a big jump in the SP. This was c£6 12 months ago… Well done all LTH but we still have plenty to go with pretty much zero down side
Https://seekingalpha.com/article/4679273-will-argentina-pay-burford-and-when
Isnt it the case that the fair valuation of the YPF case in books might be compareable to recent market discount on Arg bonds, added that the claim and award has many advantage as opposed to the bonds? So -especially after the appeal process concluded - Burf (and plaintiffs) could easily sell their claims for cc 25-33 % of the face value (or face value plus accumulated interrests. So currently beside waiting for the appeal process, it all about getting more than that (and also maybe getting YPF responsibility back into )the case)
So around 1.5 bn for BUR it can be regarded as granted.
Thanks, Mr M
This podcast from a couple of months ago, might make a good companion piece.
Two legal academics specialisising in sovereign debt discuss Jay Newman's recent FT article on the YPF case, and the prospects for a Burford recovery.
https://podcasts.apple.com/vn/podcast/ep-123-ft-mitu-mark/id1528208049?i=1000641710695
What happens when a country won't pay its debts?
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/slate-money/id876523888?i=1000649604489
As a follow on from my post yesterday, Seb Maril has recently posted, "interest accumulated since the ruling for the YPF expropriation trial - USD 448,867,699".
This all bodes well for a negotiated settlement.
Ashmore latest
.."Argentina: CPI inflation slowed to 13.2% mom in February, 180bps lower than consensus, from 20.6% mom in January. Inflation rose to 276% in yoy terms, up from 254% in January, but better than consensus at 282%..."
In the right direction..
GLA
Vegas enjoy ….Disneyland for dads 🤣