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Just hit 10p. Below that tomorrow I'm buying in for the LTH.
I’m with you Margaret, looks very cheap and well positioned for a turn around. Only thing that worries me is the motives of Bertie from Mayfair partners, he clearly pulled a fast one with the IPO. Can someone explain the £40 million capital reduction, how that works and what it means?
Held up today , are you expecting a drop below 10 before recovering. Is this usually the best quarter or is not affected by the Xmas rally ??
Hi Mizzini. Yes, I’ve been buying all the way down, buying some last week at the current low. Mid term, I can see this back to £0.65-£0.80, which values at around £30-£40m. I don’t think it needs much of a swing to make £3-£4m ebitda and therefore be valued at a PE of around 10. At £6m, it’s just to cheap.
Hey Margaret did you average down from your initial buy in price when the price hit all time low ? Been watching this one a while looking to buy in.
Indeed some fall, even since my last post 2 months ago it’s halved again. I thought it was cheap with a MC of £12m…..it’s now £6m?! It’s going to turn over £45m and make a full year profit in what is the most difficult of conditions imaginable for retailers. I still stand by its agility to adjust as a result of scale. The significant headwinds of the last 18 months that have impacted procurement are becoming tailwinds. Shipping costs this month are back to pre covid levels, falling from $20k to $2.5k for a 40ft container. That is a significant saving for BUMP on there imported stock, which accounts for most of it. The FX issue of late is hedged by there US sales, so the cost of product will unlikely have been impacted like most domestic retailers. Furthermore, there product is niche and has some cushion from the cost of living issue and the recession that’s likely to be prolonged. The market always prices ahead of the game so a revaluation on these online retailers will come way ahead of the recovery….they indeed fell way ahead of the issues we now see. You are seeing what appears to have been a bottom for the larger players like ASOS and TGH, they look to have started what will be a haphazard upward trajectory as the very lucrative shorts unwind and investors start sniffing around for bargains. Seraphine is in bargain territory. It’s been around for a long time unlike some of the massive boom and bust players that we are seeing. It’s never going to explode, but good profits will come. If the shareholders are not rewarded by the SP, then the recent balance sheet activity will allow them to reward shareholders via dividends. As previously mentioned, I’ve plenty of skin in the game. My Share account P&L does not make for good reading, I’m not happy about it, but so many times I’ve seen this in the past. When I was young with less financial clout I would have been flushed out with my loss, only to look back in again after a few years to see what would have been a handsome profit. This will not go bust, it will not need cash, it just needs time.
Some fall, looks like admin costs are killing em. Would be nice to see som DD’s here.
50 to 100p in 3 years on the LTIP, very doable I expect, see if I can top up at 17 :)
I keep nibbling away at this one, now buying shares that value this at £12m. I’m sticking to my guns, this will come good in 2-3 year time frame. Majority of earnings now is USD so this is of benefit at the current low exchange rate.
My purchase at 26.62 shows as a sell so not a small sea of red
Looking through the IPO docs, Bertie Mayfair is doing ok for himself, lends the company 45 million to acquire itself, then IPO’s to get back his 45,nice business if you know how to do it. Interesting to see the LTIP vest at 13M EBITDA, they’ve got some work to do to hit that. The SP crash in feb looks like a massive over reaction to the trading update on the 23rd? Institutional investors continuing to offload? Is the HSBC debt 6 or 12 million? I read 12 in the IPO docs…why leave the company with debt after the IPO? From my limited understanding, I really like the look of it, reminds me of grabbing French connect at 4p in Covid 2020, just a case of trusting slick Bernie Mayfair?!
Significant stock changing hands, including sizeable Director buys. I suspect that one of the large shareholders is a willing seller. I suspect like you Robsroom, that many of the trades that went through as sells were actually new buyers taking shares from this overhang. Hopefully once cleared we move North, I expect an RNS showing who this seller is in the next day or two.
Anyone know if Lee Williams is any good? French Connection and ASOS haven’t exactly had a wonderful couple of years? Looks like if they can get through transitory issues there is decent upside here, can’t see any gorillas in the company report or balance sheet. My 19k buy went through as a sell, maybe MM’s have a lot of stock to offload at the mo.
Hi folks, just taken a sizable punt on this this morning. My wife loves the brand, or did when she was pregnant. 15 mill market cap, surely the only way is up from here? What’s the downside risk?
The results paint the picture that was expected. Very difficult time, they have got through this and learnt some lessons…..just growing pains at a time when even the most experienced have felt pain. The supply chain issues are resolving nicely and good to see the increase in USD earnings which help with FX considerations when buying from the Far East. Growth forecasts are prudent due to the inflation and earnings squeeze, I expect the 0-15% will be exceeded with the multiple markets now open. This is a very nice Company, experienced team now onboard. This is never going to be huge, but no reason it cannot reach £250m turnover over time. It’s undervalued, the next year will rebalance this deficit or it could get taken out…..sadly that’s the most likely scenario.
First post on LSE jonesy88 and you have chosen Seraphine. Maybe you are somehow in the know?! Made.com is discretionary spend, inthestyle has been whacked by the MM not traders, anything that doesn’t hit anticipated growth numbers is being aggressively punished, also turned to a small loss. Seraphine has no doubt been hit with lower growth and made some rookie mistakes, but it has seen decent expansion in North America which will likely continue, cost pressure will ease and sector negativity will reverse at some point. It’s niche and still small enough to navigate with agility. There maybe some more pain from mm games if the numbers are not what are hoped for on the 28th but this will get taken out at some point, well north of the current SP. Institutional holders are sitting tight and Harwood Capital increased last week.
Results have been moved to 28th July, the second time they have changed the results publication date. It cant be good news. Dont have to post an RNS about it but always seems to be a sign a company is trying to smooth over some nasty cracks IMV. Can't see how it makes sense to touch this until the results are out, even with it being really bombed out. Made.com, InTheStyle and Joules all out today with big warnings. This isnt over!
Not me Karlo, I still just have my initial punt of 1.5% which I’m happy with for now. It’s been very quiet, so nice to see some new skin in the game, maybe the start of some long overdue momentum from these depressed levels. This is seriously undervalued.
is this you buying more Maggie?
Still sitting with a valuation of £16m. Little activity, but any meaningful volume will move this in either direction as very little float to buy but at the same time seemingly few buyers. I guess it’s wait and see for the next update to see if the supply chain has begun to resolve its issues and margin has steadied. From my experience, containers are moving more freely and the cost of shipping has come down, albeit still 4 to 5 times what it was. Textile inflation appears benign when compared with the wider basket, so cost to make the garments should be ok. It’s about the shipping and sales costs, also cost of living squeeze. Still, the company is small and agile compared to big players like Boohoo and ASOS which must be having a nightmare, the share prices are reflecting this concern. Seraphine is niche and the demand for maternity wear will be there regardless as it is seen more as a necessary and important spend for women. This is a waiting game on this one, retail negativity will change at some point, this one is all set for a re rate at substantially higher levels from here.
Ok so it was Harwood Capital that took 5% today…..from whom we don’t know. These guys specialise in taking Companies from public to private, so this maybe play here. Does not surprise me as the stock is just too cheap. Not sure why you would let 5% go at 31.5p, this has to be 65p plus, and possibly £1 right now even with the headwinds. Private then refloat in a few years……churn, burn, repeat!
Looks like a sizeable sum of shares has changed hands, most likely agreed between two of the larger holders or indeed a new buyer agreeing a deal as the MM haven’t reacted.
Personally - this looks like a good business from a product perspective - just my view but I think it will need to raise some fresh capital. I think it will be able to do this but likely to be a little dilutive. That's also one potential reason for a lack of director buying - i.e. placing, rights issue etc. I like the business but will wait a little to see what is happening in the background. Original listing was way overpriced.
It’s a bit perplexing as they were sticking there hands in there pockets a £2. Either they think it goes lower again or they for some reason are unable to buy. Online retailers are cheap currently for good reason but suitors will be looking, more heat with THG today. Seraphim is undervalued as of now and significantly undervalued based on a 2-3 year time line.
Looks like a single punter on Tuesday took the 1% stake. It moved the price accordingly and volume is now all but nothing. I would suggest this will be the trend over the near term, those with stock will generally sit to see what news comes next, hopefully it will be a little more positive. I’m pleased to see that we won’t be unduly hit by the recent devaluation in Sterling due to overseas earnings and therefore should have some shelter from exchange risks on Far East purchases.