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To add to the previous post and as i've previously mentioned, there's no reason for BT to reduce the dividend in my opinion. The market are strong arming BT to drop the dividend, which is part of long term market shake out of UK dividend seeking retail investors.
I'm not someone who readily believes in conspiracy theories, but the market's are more rigged now than they've ever been. Lets look at the advantages granted to the market makers, they have dark pools, run HFT, algo's and have immediate access to retail trade flows. The really big players have the tools to move a share price to whatever level they decide, at minimal trading costs to themselves. The market has targeted UK focused dividend paying stocks since the Brexit vote, they've tried to push firms to cut dividends wherever they can and they are aided by the authorities that are supposed to manage them. The banks didn't have to cut dividends, but prior to the BOE/PRA forcing the banks to suspend dividends, the financial press were pushing for it and the i'm guessing big market players were pushing behind the scenes. In some respects the market crash due to Covid 19, hits the leveraged big players much more than retail investors, in safe stocks, who can psychologically sit on a paper loss for a sustained period of time.
"Anyway, the point is full divis to be paid in the announcements on May 7th. Subsequent years they're forecasting only 10p per share (but their figures don't tally in year 2)."
As these are based on analyst estimates and not on hard figures, i suspect the discrepancy between projected Equity dividends paid and forecast dividend per share is an anomaly caused by the the format of the different analyst projections. It may be that some analysts only forecast the speculated dividend and not Equity dividends paid, which probably throws out the averages.
It's likely that the analyst estimates are thrown into a spreadsheet and and any discrepancies skew certain columns. I'm only guessing this is the case, but it makes sense to me.
(Part 2 Concludes)
Moving on to year 2 (Which has commenced and is just under 2 weeks old) ie., 2020/2021 - the analysts are forecasting the full year dividend payments as £1317.5m, so they're anticipating the management only reducing the dividends by less than £200m and thus divis per share should be circa 13p per share. But on checking they are showing 10p,per share, which is incorrect in my book, and very confusing, so I thank you for mentioning divis per share as I was looking only at total capital amounts to be paid out in divis - and I suddenly realise your query. It doesn't correlate. Can't be £1,300m for divis and only 10p per share but that's what they're showing. £1,300m in divi payouts should be - 13p per share. But they show 10p per share! Maddening.
Year 3 is, 2021/2022 and they're showing just under £1b in dividends at roughly£988bn and show divis at 10p per share. So for year 3, the amount and the pence per share match, more or less - but not in year 2.
So, will have to rescind my earlier post of only less than £200m deducted in year 2 for dividends as the analysts insist on showing 10p per share further up the sheet - strange - where does the odd £300m go then???
Anyway, the point is full divis to be paid in the announcements on May 7th. Subsequent years they're forecasting only 10p per share (but their figures don't tally in year 2).
--------------------------
Whatever one thinks of analysts estimates, too high, too low (and there will almost certainly be another one before May 7th) the real value is deciding whether in general, the consensus analyst estimates are trending up or down. Sadly they are drifting down for the year about to be published and this new current year just commenced.
The good news is that for 2021/22 they all as a consensus have ceased downgrading the top and bottom lines and show things stabilising with both revenue and net profit increasing fractionally, but not back to levels currently enjoyed.
Anyway, for long term holders it is some sort of good news in that there's one year the consensus is for BT to cease turning in lower figures and that is a plus - but a short few years away, for now.
Shortly after May, everyone's interest may be on their forecast for the new Year 3 - 2022/2023, and see if the top and bottom line small increases are built yet further upon. Although you should hear it first from the CEO in an RNS trading update rather than from a bunch of analysts.
(Part 1 of 2 )
Fleccy - there are only 2 key estimates and two outliers - median, mean - then highest, and lowest .
You can not include either the high or the low because they are already ameliorated into arriving at both the mean and median averages. I use only the median and mean, and then unconventionally add them together and divide by 2 to get an average of the averages, then it's less numbers swirling about. Just one figure per metric.
(20 or so analysts but only 13 involved on this occasion).
Whatever, you have a point on year two, it is showing as 10p per share in divis, but the amount in cash is not and is showing as £1,300m - 13p per share! Perplexing.
Anyway, I'm rescinding my 'not deducting the full amount for 20/21' and going with your 10p as that is what is stated. I prefer to look at the capital amounts which directly correlate to 10p/15p etc., but not on this occasion. More below on that anomaly by either BT admin or the analysts.
First off, I'm following the convention on the PDF sheets.
All years that are unpublished are treated as forecasts; and therefore year 2019/20 that concluded just under 2 weeks ago, is Year 1 forecast, because it is still unknown (until May 7th).
Year 2 is this new trading financial year 2020/2021,
and year 3 is 2021/2022.
(Once May 7th comes and goes, and 2019/2020 is thus put to bed, everything will bump up, and a new further trading year will be added to the sheets in the next update and show 2022/2023 as year 3 - as they always show three years of forecasts).
Now the last year of published accounts for 2018/2019 shows dividends paid out as £1,504m. The general media talk has been of a reduction of one third if it happens, so a neat £500 deducted leaves a round £1bn for dividends. ie., 10p per share. It's that total I was looking at and referring to, in my post.
For year 1, the year that's about to be published on May 7th the consensus analysts are showing just over £1,500m in payments, and further up the sheets, a rough average of means and medians comes to 15p per share in divis.
So the point is that in essence, the analysts consensus is that when the results are announced on May 7th NO REDUCTION IN THE OUTSTANDING PROMISED DIVIDENDS WILL BE ACTIONED.
So the analysts are of the opinion, that investors will receive the full dividends promised and be told so on May 7th and when to expect it to be paid to them.
Moving on to year 2 (Which has commenced and is just under 2 weeks old) ie., 2020/2021 - the analysts are forecasting the full year dividend payments as £1317.5m, so they're anticipating the management only reducing the dividends by less than £200m and thus divis per share should be circa 13p per share. But on
Continues > > >
Aspers did you not know that Toff is a free range chicken? your not allowed to keep them in cages/ batteries. With a bit of luck though he might cluck off.
Velo, the final dividend due to be announced soon is part of the 2019/20 dividend as i understand it. You're correct that we are now in the 2020/21 tax year, but doesn't the sheet indicate that the full year dividend consensus for 2020/21 is 9.9p and 10.06p for 2021/22?
Mean Median High Full year 2019/20 (includes next dividend)
14.62 15.40 15.42
Mean Median High (Full year 2020/21)
9.99 10.01 15.40
Mean Median High (Full year 2021/22)
10.06 10.11 15.70
Who let Toff out of his cage? This CV19 responsible for a lot of rubbish but releasing Toff so soon is a bit OTT..!!!
"What's interesting to me is that they are still forecasting around 15p dividend for this full year, but pencilling around 10p for next year and the year after...."
Fleccy, if I'm reading it correctly they are not even forecasting the full cut for next year.
The consensus is final dividend to be announced with the results and paid out in full.
And for this new year just a few weeks old, the dividend is forecast to be reduced down fiscally by less than £200m!
The full £500m cut to dividends they are not even forecasting until the third year - 2021/2022.
Seen a link on my phone today that said Legal and General was the only company defying the threats by the regulatory authorities that those companies who did not cancel their dividend forthwith would be looked on unfavourably should they seek help.
The EU authorities have weighed in too, and a host of UK financial companies have now caved in to the request. Only one UK stock has put two fingers up to the "guidelines" - Legal and General!
It says it will pay the currently due dividends as it stipulated and furthermore has no intention whatsoever of cutting any future years dividends.
Would be a feather in BT's cap if it could hold to it's promise to NOT cut this year's final dividend to be announced in May, and hold to their guidance that the dividend would only be up for review from this year on. Yet looking at the consensus forecast, this year is only showing a small £190+ odd million cut with the full £500m cut not appearing until year 3! (2021/2022)
Kudos to BT management if they can hold to their guidance and not let the hysteria of others infect their planned decision making.
Fleecy
“What's interesting to me is that they are still forecasting around 15p dividend for this full year“
Who’s still forecasting 15p dividend for the coming year besides you? And who are “They”
Because I don’t know of any broker doing that. And BT haven't declared it. The last broker prediction was Barclays a few days ago, which was 5p for the year. I posted it on this board.
Let’s be real about the dividend - considering the economic climate any dividend will be fortuitous. I consider 5 pence very realistic. Stop deceiving people and stop deceiving yourself.
I don’t know what the average price is you paid for your BT shares, but if you’ve been continually buying in as you claim, since they were £4.50, it must be at least £2.75.
So your annual BT Yield is 1.81 percent based on the 5p forecast. You could have got that in a cash ISA without the huge capital loss. And that number is fact checked by
Toff Appleton
"What's interesting to me is that they are still forecasting around 15p dividend for this full year, but pencilling around 10p for next year and the year after...."
Fleccy, if I'm reading it correctly they are not even forecasting the full cut for next year.
The consensus is final dividend to be announced with the results and paid out in full.
And for this new year just a few weeks old, the dividend is forecast to be reduced down fiscally by less than £200m!
The full £500m cut to dividends they are not even forecasting until the third year - 2021/2022.
Seen a link on my phone today that said Legal and General was the only company defying the threats by the regulatory authorities that those companies who did not cancel their dividend forthwith would be looked on unfavourably should they seek help.
The EU authorities have weighed in too, and a host of UK financial companies have now caved in to the request. Only one UK stock has put two fingers up to the "guidelines" - Legal and General!
It says it will pay the currently due dividends as it stipulated and furthermore has no intention whatsoever of cutting any future years dividends.
Would be a feather in BT's cap if it could hold to it's promise to NOT cut this year's final dividend to be announced in May, and hold to their guidance that the dividend would only be up for review from this year on. Yet looking at the consensus forecast, this year is only showing a small £190+ odd million cut with the full £500m cut not appearing until year 3! (2021/2022)
Kudos to BT management if they can hold to their guidance and not let the hysteria of others infect their planned decision making.
Fleecy
“What's interesting to me is that they are still forecasting around 15p dividend for this full year“
Who’s still forecasting 15p dividend for the coming year besides you? And who are “They”
Because I don’t know of any broker doing that. And BT gavent declared it. The last broker prediction was Barclays a few days ago, which wS 5p for the year.
Let’s be real about the dividend - considering the economic climate any dividend will be fortuitous. I consider 5 pence very realistic.
I don’t know what the average price is you paid for your BT shares, but if you’ve been buying in Continually since they were £4.50 it must be at least £2.75.
So your annual BT Yield is 1.81 percent based on the 5p forecast.
What's interesting to me is that they are still forecasting around 15p dividend for this full year, but pencilling around 10p for next year and the year after. It would appear that the consensus view is for 5.5p being shaved off next years dividend.
Concludes:
. . . Business as usual - according to the analysts - because the prior updates back to Q3 are virtually much of a muchness.
And my question is answered: no detrimental impact by the lockdown - according to the analysts. (By the same token neither are they forecasting a windfall in BT's favour either, just the old story.
The regulatory authorities are allowing all companies a free pass on providing guidance as those concerned can't foresee the final impact the lockdown/virus will have on their business. A positive for BT, I suppose because BT's analysts (20 or so) - can!
Fresh out this morning and no deep cut overall, despite the odd analyst's opinion that has crept into the media - it's the consensus here, not the odd player with the loudest voice shouting the odds in the media - the consensus of all the BT analysts!
I'm still holding out for £2bn in net profit being achieved a) because the methodology I'm using is showing even higher net profit than last year and b) the CEO said he could pull it all together by the final whistle - but then went and promptly put himself under house arrest!
So £2bn in net profit I stand by, until May 7th says otherwise. Clearly I'm on dodgy ground, but there you are.
Will post the future years forecasts (especially 2021/2022) separately in a minute or so........
(Part 1 and a bit)
At last - it's out; what I've been keenly looking out for - the analysts full consensus forecasts for BT that includes their opinion of how the lockdown economy will or won't impact upon BT - out this very morning!
In actual fact, you can hardly tell.
https://www.btplc.com/Sharesandperformance/Financialreportingandnews/Latestconsensus/Modules/Archive/Q12020-21/bt-group-consensus-9-apr-2020.pdf
Yes, it's down yet again, but only slightly. (Next Tuesday now, before we see what the market will make of it).
The last analysts consensus was for a reduction of not only revenue but net profit too, forecasting to come in below £2b net profit. I use a TTM method of calculation so hold a higher outlook and have been expecting to hold £2b net profit - as a minimum.
I'm prepared to accept the analysts will prove the more accurate, but bare in mind they have been way wrong on some of the past quarters in this last financial year, so not giving ground until I see sight of the finals published in a few weeks time on Thursday MAY 7TH.
The last update was 2 weeks behind the actual date published on 13th March (so out of date before being read!) I did post on it, that they had downgraded ever so slightly the key metrics. I did not post on another recent update, (dated 27th March) as that was as much the same as the previous one, because I was looking for this one - a clear and up to date forecast (just released this morning) that fully, FULLY, factors in the very latest political manoeuvrings surrounding the virus and the lock down impact on the economy in regards to BT, and here it is, dated yesterday Thursday, so they've posted a day early this time! But bang up to date.
For those who believe the lockdown WILL affect BT's performance then the consensus of the analysts is that it won't. In fact the progression is a continuation of micro drip, by micro drip, to the downside just as before the virus even broke out in China!
Same old, same old, death by a thousand cuts, type of thinking, except for their forecast for 2021/2022 - which shows the first increase on all headings, but again only by small degrees, as has been the case in their downbeat forecasts - by small degrees only.
Before that (2021/2022) - Want some numbers first? Here we go:
Revenue is forecast in the finals (not bothering with individual Q4 as they won't either, on May 7th - just the full year with Q4 built in, is where all the interest will be) to be down at £22.861bn (Last year £23.459bn)
Net Profit is forecast to be down at £1.982.5bn (last year ( £2.159bn)
Just on those two alone it can be seen they are slightly down on previous updates, but only marginally so; just as if the lockdown is barred from having a dog in this fight, which to me says the analysts see no detriment from the economic lockdown against BT. Business as usual - according to the analysts - because the prior updates back to Q3 are virtually much of a muchness.
Continues >