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Utter tosh. Its nothing to do with the market makers
1984 Privatised. Offered at £1.30 opened way above that
2020 This morning now below the opening price in 1984
We have a problem Houston.
Toff is right!!!. You tend to talk a lot about financial fundamentals and lots of boring stuff. Please stop trying to mislead us about the real reason behind the fall of BT and for that matter the spread of Coronavirus and all the other ills of society. ITS ALL DOWN TO THE MARKETMAKERS!!!! It has nothing too do with debt, aggressive competition, bad management, weak workforce, low employee moral. Quarantine all MM's for 5 years and BT will shoot up!!!
I note that the price of every single stock in my (diversified) portfolios have been taken down by 2% + in the first 10 minutes of this morning's trading. This is despite the severe market contraction of historically low share prices since last Friday.
I am becoming more than cynical in my personal view that this is a massive over-reaction to the spread of the coronavirus. Every attempt is being made to "persuade" investors to part company with their shareholdings. I have responded in the past, for example to the massive market depression that occurred following the unexpected EU referendum result. On this occasion, I am holding firm. None of my holdings will be sold until they are well in profit - although it may take some time under the present pummelling that the market is deliberately applying across the full spectrum of stocks.
If only your long rambling posts obsessing about the shareprice could lift BT - it’d be twenty quid by now.
Read them back and you’ll see the manic fixation on the shareprice. - that’s a sure sign of Asperges Syndrome.
Personally, I'll be looking for a minimum close proud of 148 to suggest the virus panic might be loosening it's grip on the SP, and fearing a close on 145.
But anything above a 145 close is still potentially hopeful, IMO.
Later evening blather / idle gossip . . . blah blah blah . . .
My roughly 'by eye' guesstimate (below) of the old downtrend from 2016 to May 2018 - if continued to present unabated, was not to far of the mark. I make it circa a channel of upper 130's say, 138p-ish down to circa 115p.
So my belief that a previous poster's suggestion of 68p wouldn't be seen for years and years, still holds.
Also, my steadily firming belief is that the original long term down trend that commenced in 2016 is still not back on course.
Only if the SP sinks to a little below sub 140 ie., high 130's would it be kissing the upper channel area of the old down trend, by vacillating between that, and approx 115p - would it provide sustenance to the theory that price always regresses to the mean. It still hasn't regressed back to the area of the old down trend.
In fact I'm also still holding, that unless this decline continues, then this current down trend from May 2018 to present, is of a different order and nowhere of the same aggressiveness as 2016 to mid 2018, and therefore raise the question that potentially could the SP be floor hunting, much like the skidding tyres of a windblown airplane bouncing along, trying to land?
- but only with the caveat that the SP gives up any thoughts of sinking just under 140.
Obviously all IMO only.
Can't provide an upside SP, because there hasn't been one since 2016, only the ill-fated rarer attempts at breakouts and mostly, short term rallies.
- Fundamental valuations using P/E ratios look v interesting by comparison to sector averages, if ever the market re-rated BT positively to the sector whole (in the future).
So, not panicking over 140's - but will, if the SP gets driven to just a penny or two below 140p.
This is just moving with the FTSE now. Nothing BT specific. I'm looking to buy 2 more tranches here. Had a tranche at £1.53 which I have sold at a loss (£1.49) to buy back in again when the Markets settle down.
I have 2000 shares at £2.50 and 3000 shares at £2.00, I'll add another 4000 shares around this level, if I can get them cheaper then great. I'll add 6000 shares at £1.00 if it gets there and that's me done with BT as I suspect BT will be on the verge of going bust at that stage.
" the original long term down trend from 2016 would appear to be in a zig zag channel from an upper price of 140 to 115"
£1.15 would value BT around £11.63 Billion, less than the price paid for EE. The valuation at that level would have to view all other BT assets as a liability and loss making. Clearly such low valuations on a profit making company is ridiculous. Toff is correct in his assertions that the Market Titans are depressing BT's price. It's not just BT though, all telecom stocks are getting hit and the triple whammy is that UK stocks are also currently de-rated. Personally, i can see the UK Government going big on infrastructure investment after Jan 2020, so the market may decide to jump back in, hoping to benefit on the back of any big infrastructure spend.
" I am wondering what consequence the current onslaught will have on the company's share price - over a time frame of 12 months "
Am still intending to do some worst case prognosis work on that as a result of posts of £1 and a troll recently citing 68p
Roughly, very roughly, if you imagine the breakout from the May 2018 never occurred (but it has so...) the original long term down trend from 2016 would appear to be in a zig zag channel from an upper price of 140 to 115 by approx this date onwards - if the big breakout in 2018 never occurred.
So it's 140 that concerns me - not the 140's decile range per se.
Will come back to that that tonight as tied up until later.
The DB target has now been achieved. Next stop UBS's valuation of 140p. BT Group's MCap is currently around 14.58bn. How much are the separate components of the company (Openreach, EE, for example) worth? Like many other retail investors, I am of the opinion that the CV, dreadful though it is, is being used as a means of driving share prices far lower than need be the case. If only investors didn't panic as much!
BT Group is currently one of my worst ever investments, as was the case a few years ago. It partially recovered then, and I managed to break even. I am wondering what consequence the current onslaught will have on the company's share price - over a time frame of 12 months. Will it recover to my target of 190p? Is there now a greater likelihood of a takeover bid emerging once the CV "crisis" has ended?
" Watch this space - I’ll post the reply from BT when I receive it."
Is this guy for real?
Has he not heard about Coronavirus!!!
Do you realise what the BT share price was in 1999 at the height of the Dot-com bubble and what it fell to several years later? Hardly history repeating itself.
´Toff, just top up where you see value and hold for the long term.´
I have been holding for the long term. The problem is with UK shares is that the longer you hold them the more you lose. Admittedly the dividends are reasonable. But every time a dividend is paid out the market makers mark it down by 2-3 times the amount...
Permabear 100 is set to drop below 6950 tomorrow. Taking us back to 1999 level. Shame that our great companies are valued by a cartel of coke-snorting misfits - they deserve better.
"What I am going to do about it?"
Toff, just top up where you see value and hold for the long term. Keep collecting the dividends and wait it out.
The only way to beat this is to sit it out, the MM's and big players in general will eventually change direction.
Quite honestly, market makers would never avoid criminal charges if they priced BT at these levels in ANY other global market. BT is valued at less than £15 billion now. EE is worth about £13 billion, so the uks MMs value BT at virtually nothing!
As I said in an earlier post; the shares most traded by retail investors are all the ones that the MMs have smashed most. It’s all out there for everyone to see.
I’ve been around markets for a long time and over the last few years somethings changed. Some shares are being beaten down to the levels you’d expect at the bottom of history’s most savage bear markets. No other nation would allow this.
But in this country the Pigs have always lived off the proles. That’s why ...
Interest rates are 40 percent for current account overdrafts.
Credit card interest rates are outrageous.
Savings rate interest is generally 0.1percent
Shares favored by by retail investors are marked down ever and ever lower to ensure everyone loses big.
Except for the coke- snorting pigs of course
What I am going to do about it?
Over the next day or two I’m going to write to BT and ask them if the current shareprice is a fair valuation of the company.
I’m going to ask them if they know why the price is still marked down when there’s 2 or 3 buys for each sell. And how can be marked 2-3 percent lower in a day when trading volumes are tiny.
I’m going to ask them if they know the MMs who trade Bt shares are using their own brokerages to rat-hole trading imbalances away and profit from this illicit practice.
My advice to anyone even thinking about buying uk shares is quite simply don’t!
As retail investors we have no protection whatsoever. Who needs a bear market when shares are valued like this. The permabear 100 is the most ruinous investment imaginable. You’d do better to set fire to your money.
Watch this space - I’ll post the reply from BT when I receive it.