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" ... should pay a close attention to the 50% retracement level at 151p as a drop below it will lead to more weakness." Remember, the trend is your friend."
It doesn't really matter to me if BT again drops down to £1 . . . "
--------------------------
To be clear, all joking aside - at this juncture I can't entertain, nor offer support to anyone who thinks £1 is even remotely on the cards - it isn't.
That 150/151 area has so far resisted magnificently well in that, the bears have had insufficient strength to drive the SP down to it.
Intradayed as deep as 152, yes, but didn't break it - and even if the bears did regain strength and return to drive the SP to break past 151 and more, there are 2 further deeply significant Fibbo 'checkpoint' areas like 151 to get past.
Only then, when the next two deeper checkpoints were under the cosh, and in the bears gunsights would, I stand aside from arguing against those maintaining £1 was feasible. It's not on the cards. It just isn't.
It's a race to get to the better months and well clear of this sheet :)
"I do not see the situation with a shortage of chips being an issue for the share price. It is a world wide problem that affects many areas of the modern world. Automotive, computing,"
That's my thinking too NDNIC, I've seen loads of articles about Automotive manufacturers being impacted, but nothing stating that Telecom providers are directly affected, apart from the articles recently linked hinting at a Telecom impact. Nokia is probably BT's biggest Equipment supplier, and the article below states:
"Nokia is navigating well through the chip shortage. The third or fourth quarter is a possible turning point. Since more suppliers are increasing output amid the shortage, Nokia is expecting higher capacity in late 2023 to 2024"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455029-what-to-do-after-nokia-breaks-down-below-6-00
Suppliers like Nokia will want to meet contractual KPI's on massive contracts, with companies like BT. Nokia may have some Force Majeure protections built into their contracts, in the event of supplier issues, but they won't want big customers looking elsewhere in the event they can't supply Equipment on time, or possibly having to offer discounts on the back of not meeting KPI's.
" BT has also crossed the... 200-day moving averages while the Relatively Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to the oversold level.
And -
... should pay a close attention to the 50% retracement level at 151p as a drop below it will lead to more weakness." Remember, the trend is your friend."
It doesn't really matter to me if BT again drops down to £1, as I'm in for the long haul, and have no intention of selling my Telecom stocks until FTTP and 5g are completed; The only thing I would do under those circumstances is take the opportunity to top up with more BT, like I've just recently bought more Vodafone stock at around 115p.
I do not see the situation with a shortage of chips being an issue for the share price. It is a world wide problem that affects many areas of the modern world. Automotive, computing, entertainment devices, office equipment, etc, etc. There are also shortages of many other items, timber, chemicals, steel, cement, toilet rolls and HGV drivers and lots more. Chips are just an excuse to make up a story line, you could do the same if BT sold sheds, you just can’t get one…
Here’s a question for the experts.
When Drahi bought earlier this year do you think he may have seen this chip shortage coming and suspected he might to be able to snap up BT on the cheap once sentiment went downhill? He is in the business after all and you’d hope he had his eye on these things. Or would it have made more sense to wait rather than pay what is now about 15% to 20% above yesterday’s price?
Also, could this uncertainty be why the analysts are not updating the consensus These days?
Fleccy, clicked the 2nd link in your post and sat here quietly chuckling to myself.
Did a feint recall memory not alert you as to where you may have read those media contents elsewhere beforehand?
No? :)
How about these bits:
" BT has also crossed the... 200-day moving averages while the Relatively Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to the oversold level."
And -
"... should pay a close attention to the 50% retracement level at 151p as a drop below it will lead to more weakness." Remember, the trend is your friend."
- - - - - -
That's all from your 2nd link.
None of it ring a bell? You sure you haven't already read all that, elsewhere? :) :) :)
Nope, sorry, don't agree at all Fleccy.
That Yahoo journo is being forced to make it up to try and make it fit after the event. The plain truth is, that journo has no idea why BT is so savagely down and is just creating empty stories with no meaning.
Vod, Lloyd's & HSBC, (just checked) and yes just as I suspected, all for the past 5 years have a characteristically underperforming summer in general over the years. (Cyclicals aka seasonality charts). They're just performing to type.
So if you'd asked me at the commencement of summer I could have relayed my findings on the stocks you quoted in advance - just as I posted on here in circa May/June that BT would under-perform this summer.
The shock/horror is, that I did NOT expect this severity! Something else is at play
- and the best I can come up with is the market sentiment changing bearishly against the telecommunications stocks due to the micro chip crisis.
- However in BT's case this retrace is over extended to an alarming degree. And IMO is greater than just a characteristic of BT traditionally having a poor summer
(ergo: the corollary of that, is that I'm expecting a decent performance from BT over Oct/Nov/Dec - but that was before this serious retrace forced itself in your face).
Also, I don't take a blind bit of notice of media opinion pieces that alert you to reasons as to why something is down after the event. As said, it's mostly guesswork to fill pages. If they knew - they'd tell you before it happened - not afterwards.
- LOL! We can all make predictions after those predictions have already happened.
Velo, this is a more likely explanation for negative market sentiment.
"In stocks, the FTSE 100 Index has failed to keep pace with the broader market rally. It’s dropped about 1% since June, while Europe 600 and S&P 500 rose more than 3%"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-k-loses-market-edge-070000206.html
I get that BT is down considerably more than 1%, but if you ignore the dramatic blip up to 205p, and subsequent decline, the FTSE100, BT and Lloyds are performing around the same. Vodafone and HSBC are both underperforming by a similar amount. The charts probably don't mean anything, but both Lloyds and HSBC aren't affected by the chip shortages,
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BT.A:LON?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiq84-M7IjzAhUuQEEAHWwvAF0Q_AUoAXoECAEQAw&window=6M&comparison=LON%3ALLOY%2CLON%3AVOD%2CLON%3AHSBA
" China are struggling with 5G rollout, due to chip shortages. "
There are a lot of theories flying around of course because the semi-conductors are so predominately produced by South Korea,Japan, and Taiwan....and in a true James Bond megalomaniac S.P.E.C.T.R.E. style story.....it is suggested that China wants the advanced "know-how" that Taiwan has ..that it lacks...which US/UK/Aus/Japan etc etc are wanting to help protect ...hence China's continued pressure in terms of trying to retake Taiwan into its fold ...new factories and investments involve hundreds of billions of Dollars, of course
The notion of "national security" in relation to it all doesn't help I guess
" Lets see what washes out in the next couple of weeks "
-------------------
It's getting late, so I'll agree on that.
( I agree to let you catch up with events :)
(But I solidly maintain my raison d'être for this SP retrace regardless :)
With an ID handle like mine, I shouldn't really be including French idioms in my posts; been mistaken/accused of being a frog before now.
"you don't have trouble Googling Bitcoin rubbish; what's stopping you on this important sentiment change towards the telecoms industry?"
Because I enjoy googling Bitcoin rubbish, and eating Ice Cream lol
https://i.postimg.cc/N06b2SBX/Crypto.png
I'm not saying you're wrong, I just haven't see any proof of it yet. Lets see what washes out in the next couple of weeks, by which time I'm sure we'll know for sure.
https://i.postimg.cc/ZnYLP1B9/DAZN.jpg
"It's the SOLE reason for this big retrace in the SP since June. How did Fleccy miss it?"
Where did you read that Velo?
----------
Why, I read it from my own deductions :) :)
BT's Smart Hub 2's et al will be 100% affected for starters. Doesn't matter that they're nothing to do with the fibre upgrading; the market dislikes anything that is a negative to trading - without a replacement. I feel absolutely certain that Jansen will mention it in his H1 trading update a period that concludes in a fortnight.
Please read the two links thoroughly. There's another link within Whetherboy's link too. I have others, but too late at night to go hunting. Start Googling yourself
- you don't have trouble Googling Bitcoin rubbish; what's stopping you on this important sentiment change towards the telecoms industry?
The sector/ industry has been infected by the crisis. Sectors and industries go in and out of fashion. The word is telecoms is being hit by the chip shortage. And that affects sentiment. There is NO other conclusion to be drawn as to the reason for this big over extended SP retrace.
(It also means there's a date-stamped resoultion to this retrace too).
Was reading an unsolicited sales blurb on my phone that was trying to flog the top 3 chip manufacturers butI later filtered through my stock screener and came up with loads in the US anyway.
However, it highlighted that the market sentiment had NOW turned negative against the telecommunications industry in the US.
So doesn't matter about the rights and wrongs and actual depth of effect upon BT - all teleco's have come under distasteful market sentiment - those huge volumes you're seeing is the big guys moving OUT of teleco's - not mysterious dark pools - that's what trends are - the big guys taking months to change their positions.
The word is out. It's time to include telecoms in industries affected by the chip shortages - everybody in telecoms is feeling the pinch, however tenuous the connection.
- that's the reason for BT's over-extended big SP retrace.
Ok, I've just done a quick search and I can only find a couple of articles hinting at Chip shortages affecting Telecoms providers.
Apparently Openreach are charging ISP's more for G.fast Routers
https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2021/09/openreach-uk-hike-cost-of-g-fast-broadband-modems-for-isps.html
China are struggling with 5G rollout, due to chip shortages.
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/chip-shortage-taking-its-toll-on-china-5g-rollout/d/d-id/771681
In all honesty, I can't find any articles suggesting that the big UK Telecom providers are currently impacted dramatically by the chip shortages; Retail user devices, like smartphones and home routers, seem to be taking a knock, but not Network specific Equipment; For all I know, Telecom Providers may be heavily impacted, I just can't find articles specifically suggesting that. Velo if you can find articles stating that FTTP rollouts and other Network specific products are impacted, I'll change my view and say as much.
"t's the SOLE reasonm for this big retrace in the SP since June. How did Fleccy miss it?"
Where did you read that Velo? And why would it cause a retrace, since companies like CityFibre would be more impacted. BT are making money from their existing network, irrespective of any reported shortages; Companies like CityFibre need to add customers urgently to build a revenue stream, since they are building from scratch using partner capital and debt.
" No doubt the vested interest media may try and make something of it, but we'll see what happens "
-----------------
Oh they are already - and with good reason.
As an indirect result of the worldwide chip shortage I am hereby now claiming this unresolved retrace issue that commenced in high summer, is as a direct result of that chip shortage.
I am holding to that viewpoint through thick and thin unless/until anyone can provide evidence to the contrary.
"How did Fleccy miss it? Too much bl@@dy Bitcoin and Ryanair comparison posting, that's how!"
Chip shortages aren't really Engineering related, more supply issues, and there weren't any supply issues when I retired late 2019. Since I'm no longer at the sharp end, I have no idea how much truth there are to these stories, although I had seen all the recent publicity about shortages in the Automotive industries. From what I've read, Nokia are supplying lots of the OLT/ONT equipments and Openreach will have a massive contract for the supply. I can only surmise that since the rollout will be incremental over the next 5 years, they'll probably be able to resource enough access terminal Equipment to continue rollout.
As far as home routers are concerned, I have no idea what the situation is, but if Openreach are affected then all the others will be too. As you say Velo, if there is an issue, we'll probably hear about it in due course, but It wont likely affect the rollout of Fibre unless there are supply issues there too, which I doubt.
No doubt the vested interest media may try and make something of it, but we'll see what happens. Of course I can only guess, like everyone else.
I have to say the story on my link makes it sound much worse than yours. Hopefully a different journalist just trying to dramatise a little.
Having said that if I knew the retrace was mainly due to this I would be quite happy as I don’t intend to cash in for at least two years. Of course there will be a completely new crisis by then though!!!
Here's the UK link I was referring to, Wetherboy :
https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2021/08/global-chip-shortage-continuing-to-impact-uk-broadband-isps.html?utm_source=pocket_mylist
ISP's such as BT and all the others like Virgin better have a reasonable stockpile of broadband routers - as currently it's over a year wait for any supplier to come up with a router the ISP's need for new customers.
It's the SOLE reasonm for this big retrace in the SP since June. How did Fleccy miss it? Too much bl@@dy Bitcoin and Ryanair comparison posting, that's how!
I shouldn't be telling him - he should be telling me!
That's the right track w/boy. Busy now so will read it fully later on.
The one I saw details the manufacturing delays now in play with the routers etc., not just phones, but gear needed by the likes of BT to complete customer requirements. A lot of BT's and VOD's tech suppliers are in trouble as of right now. Back orders building up with no clear dates from the chip manufactures to complete back orders for their equipment required by the teleco's. The market has reacted to this since June.
Is it this sir?
https://www.telecomtv.com/content/digital-platforms-services/global-chip-shortage-to-impact-telecoms-until-2023-report-42298/
Fleccy, you've been querying me, so question time for you.
- I've come to a decision as to why BT's SP has been trending downwards since June (and VOD too).
----------
I'll let you research if all other telecommunications stocks have felt the heat since June too :) I suspect they have.
I haven't checked - but it's a teleco engineering issue - so should be right in your court this one.
I'll provide as many reports as I can find to back up my assertion if you can't guess it :)
It's all detailed on the 'net .
And it's nothing to do with Drahi or conspiracy volumes - IMO :)
But it is a serious issue for all teleco stocks. You engineering types should have posted on this issue before now, and alerted us non-tech engineering types long before now.
Only a fortnight to go before the Q2 finalises, so expecting the BT trading update by the end of October or very early in Nov as the H1 report by BT.
I also expect Jansen to blame any shortfalls on this issue I'm alluding to as not of BT's doing (which it isn't - but still betting he brings it up in his H1 update).
What is that engineering teleco issue I'm talking about? :)
You're the engineering expert - you tell me :)
(I know next to nothing about telecoms engineering:)
PS. If you can't answer correctly then you've got to ease up on Bitcoin, and Ryanair comparisons, as it's making you take your eye off the ball.
I admit I didn't look at other's, although VOD came in just over 64.5 million UT, so BT's was still high at over 99 Million.
Good point Tom. Overlooked that one. The third Friday of the Third quarter is the most significant.
Urban stockmarket legend has it that -
What was once trending up, often mysteriously trends downwards, and what was once trending downwards often trends upwards - after the witching hour day.
BT has been trending down to date. SOoooooo . . . :)
So on this occasion, we should welcome the old market urban myths and legends :)
---------
Bkkbkk - don't have one.
Let it all unfold, as I track all by following how the SP trends.
Volume was fantastic today - as recorded by Daily trading volume alone. And it's shown by a good SP performance too, but it did cut back by close.
It still hasn't got near to a key paired trendline I'm using - only the first base trendline - in fact there has been barely more than one occasion since June that the SP has broke through the first (short term) trendline and kissed the larger twin paired trendline. Not today. Still below the first one. So not getting excited just yet.
Today is quadruple witching day when lots of option expire. Most shares have massive UT auctions today.
Velo
What's your opinion of something going on ?