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"i will be keeping a record of the 5 stocks i mentioned in my earlier post and will see how they compare to my current holding at the present. good luck with your investments."
I suspect our investments are affected by the same Macro climate, so our stocks will likely follow a similar trajectory. Hopefully we'll both be winners over time.
thankyou for your reply and i also am recently retired and enjoy picking stocks and investing it keeps my brain busy trying to figure things out.
we obviously have different views on stocks which is only natural as that is what makes a market and we are all taking risks with our investments.
i will be keeping a record of the 5 stocks i mentioned in my earlier post and will see how they compare to my current holding at the present.
good luck with your investments.
"i have taken the opposite view to you the smaller stocks with sound finances and good management are leading the uk market and imho are more likely to give me a decent return on my money than the 100 in the next 6-12 months."
You miss my point. My reasoning for investing in Large Caps, is more about protecting my capital over a long investment window, should the share price go south in the short to medium term.
I'm recently retired, but in my last job I had regular conversations with a contractor, who's also a keen investor. We had conversations around our different investment styles, with him being being interested in UK small cap potential growth stocks. His biggest investment was in Sirius Minerals and he was one of the unlucky ones who was caught out by the bond issuance fiasco. If I remember rightly he lost about 20 grand on that investment, with no chance of recovery as Sirius had effectively gone bust. I recently read an article stating how Anglo American are creating lots of new jobs and how well things are going, with no mention of the thousands of small shareholders persuaded to plough their life savings into a safe local investment. Just another example of Infrastructure subsidised by retail investors, who are then pushed out. This appears to be a recurring theme and people get caught out every time, caveat emptor.
Carr's Group is no Sirius Minerals, but it's highly reliant on the health of the Agricultural sector and isn't without risks and is likely to be impacted by the same macro events as BT.
Your View on BT:
"would i buy bt yes but why bother now when i believe it will be the same price in january along with many other 100 stocks i also watch gsk-bats-shell-aviva all these are good companies imo."
January is meaningless, apart from the results announcement at the end of this month. The Triennial pension review completion, due next year, is far more significant to BT's share price.
I would suggest that Carr's Group and BT are both undervalued and their fortunes are tied together by Macro sentiment, both companies will rise on improving UK stock sentiment in my opinion.
i looked at carr earlier.
a sound investment but too small for me.
fleccy this statement confirms my argument since march this year i have taken the opposite view to you the smaller stocks with sound finances and good management are leading the uk market and imho are more likely to give me a decent return on my money than the 100 in the next 6-12 months.
would i buy bt yes but why bother now when i believe it will be the same price in january along with many other 100 stocks i also watch gsk-bats-shell-aviva all these are good companies imo.
it will be interesting to look at my current holdings - against these five stocks in 6 months time.
good luck to you.
"dlg- 2.66 / win- 2.0 / head-2.66 / carrs-1.06 and h&t 2.73 which i am still looking to add as not yet achieved my desired holding."
I looked a CARR earlier, it looks a sound enough investment, but it's too small cap for me. I only invest in large caps that I consider safe from going bust. There are certain other stocks that i wont touch, like Travel and Leisure even before Covid. I wouldn't have touched companies like Carillion, or big Infrastructure like HS2, Channel Tunnel during construction and the likes of Sirius Minerals. Sirius Minerals was a classic pull the rug and muscle out the small shareholders imo, something far more difficult to achieve with large caps.
Very fair point. Someone said it here a while back, that the gov would love to regulate BT to within an inch of its life to keep fibre as cheap as possible. Agree. Trouble for the gov is that they cannot do that if they want a national fibre network. BT won’t build, no alt network will build, in the 1/3 of the country where the returns don’t stack up without the gov offering that ‘fair bet’ BT keep talking about.
If BT shares are not worth more than £3 each in three years time, I will eat my hat.
BT is severely undervalued.
Once the revenue starts to roll in from the FTTP build and the spend goes from £12Bn to a fraction of that, then we will see the real value of this national blue chip company.
Steve............ "mr market is never wrong"
With respect Steve, I think that the market gets it wrong too, it's just a case of waiting until the market realises it's mistake. I think that I'm right with BT, I see great undervaluation in BT assets. Yes the market disagrees with me for now. I will hold until the market comes around to my way of thinking. I have time to wait it out.
fleccy you said that i would not invest in bt that is not what i said .
you also wanted to know what i am invested in so that you could follow them.
presumably to pick fault well here you are these are my current holdings and prices.
dlg- 2.66 / win- 2.0 / head-2.66 / carrs-1.06 and h&t 2.73 which i am still looking to add as not yet achieved my desired holding.
also holding 17% in cash.
i do believe that you can get married to a stock and that it can twist your logic and convince you that you are right and everyone else is wrong.
nobody is ever right all the time but the trend is your friend .
and mr market is never wrong. good luck dyor.
Fleccy don’t doubt anything in this matter just wondering if some people are playing with the information to support there view. Bit like statistics, you can make then say what you want, if you know how to. GLA
"To close this debate why dont you email Investor Relations Director and publish his response on this forum?"
Why would I need to email BT's Investor Relations Director? I've not made any of the figures up, I've posted the figures in the annual report. I wouldn't know what question to ask and they'd probably direct me to the relevant section in the annual report.
For anyone who doesn't believe the figures I've posted, or dispute them, I direct them to the table at the bottom of Page 162 of the Annual Report 2020.
https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/annual-reports/2020/2020-bt-annual-report.pdf
Fleccy
To close this debate why dont you email Investor Relations Director and publish his response on this forum?
"The point I was trying to make is could the wording in the results 19-20 be used to imply by those who wish to, that the £1b deficit is additional to that reported by BTPS in June 19."
If that's the case, then they don't know how to read a report, or haven't read the report, or they're just making it up. The real truth is that the BTPS deficit was actually only £0.77 Billion, it was adding EE's pension and other plans that pushed the deficit up to £1.14 Billion. The reason I point that out, is because it's the BTPS deficit that's constantly cited as the reason for BT's poor share price performance.
Just to emphasise my point:
BTPS DB Deficit £0.77 Billion
EE Pension Deficit £0.059 Billion
Other Plan Deficit £0.311 Billion
---------------------------------------------
Total Deficit £1.14 Billion
That is a fair point NDN.
Yes Fleccy I fully agree. The point I was trying to make is could the wording in the results 19-20 be used to imply by those who wish to, that the £1b deficit is additional to that reported by BTPS in June 19. Those with a vested interest in keeping BT low, like some politicians, will twist the wording to suite there narrative. As I said, just wondering, as logic appears to get more and more warped these days.
"I wonder about this figure in the report as £1b deficit, could the wording be interpreted as an additional £1b on top of the last report in June 2019, taking it from around £7b to £8b. Just wondering."
Absolutely not, the deficit is the difference between the liabilities and the assets held by BTPS. According to the 2020 annual report BTPS Liabilities were reported as £53.010 Billion with assets of £52.240 Billion. The deficit is Assets - Liabilities which is:
For the BTPS scheme £(52.240 - 53.010) Billion giving a deficit of £0.77 Billion
Add the deficit from the EEPS scheme (£59 Million)
Add the deficit from other plans (£311 Million)
Total Deficit of £1.14 Billion
https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/annual-reports/2020/2020-bt-annual-report.pdf
In 2019 the deficit was £7.182 Billion
I wonder about this figure in the report as £1b deficit, could the wording be interpreted as an additional £1b on top of the last report in June 2019, taking it from around £7b to £8b. Just wondering.
"I'm afraid it's because it fits their narrative."
Indeed, it's a vested interest narrative.
Fleccy.............. "Some of the speculative articles state £9 Billion expected deficit, how they determine that the deficit will increase over by 700% since March, I have no idea."
I'm afraid it's because it fits their narrative.
"The biggest headache that I have is whilst fundamentals stack, the elephant in the room is by defined pension liabilities."
There are many past posts in reference to the DB pension liabilities, which was reported as £1.1 Billion in BT's 31st March 2020 report. I also recently posted the increase in UK DB pension liabilities overall, with reference to the published PPF report which showed an average deficit increase of 22% since March. An increase of 22% since March would increase BT's deficit from £1.1 Billion to £1.342 Billion. At the conclusion of the Triennial review next year, even if BT's Deficit triples, since March, it would still only be £3.3 Billion. Some of the speculative articles state £9 Billion expected deficit, how they determine that the deficit will increase over by 700% since March, I have no idea.
Cheez what crap. The reality of your post is that the first position should not occur until the trend is your friend regardless of fundamental screening.
The biggest headache that I have is whilst fundamentals stack, the elephant in the room is by defined pension liabilities.
If not for this I would be 20% of my portfolio in bt. Because of this risk I will limited my exposure to 5% of my portfolio. But having said this I am sure the market is taking a similar risk profile point of views, so to what extent is this risk being reflected in the share price???
Why the doubt over Brexit have we not been assured that it will put the GREAT back into Britain again. Taking back control and giving it to Dominic Cummings is promising us all a bright future.BT shares will benefit.
"i dont disagree with you fleccy but why would anyone make there first buy at this present time unless trading this is a classic value trap imho."
That's the chance you take when investing, but by any measure BT is cheap and unlikely to drop much below current levels. Whatever happens with Brexit, I believe that BT and UK stocks in general will recover. Covid 19 will eventually disappear too, so that will positively impact the share price positively.
You've stated that you wouldn't invest in BT, what would you invest in, and over what time frame? The reason I ask, is so that I can watch your stock pick going forward and see how it performs in these uncertain times.
i dont disagree with you fleccy but why would anyone make there first buy at this present time unless trading this is a classic value trap imho.
you have no choice as you are one of the trapped ones.
i will be investing in bt just not yet best of luck jmop.
"i like bt but cannot invest in any stock at the moment that uk govt has so much influence on."
Makes no odds to me, as i'm in for the long haul anyway. I'm not planning to do anything with my BT holdings until 2025. Why 2025? Because that's when FTTP and 5G will be close to completion and I believe that Telecoms stocks will be hyped up by then, much like tech stocks are now imho. dyor.