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Exactly my point, Boris planed his version of Brexit with Trump getting a second term, which he would if not for now proving that he is not a leader just an opportunistic idiot. Watch this space.
Hey NDN I hope you are right. I really do but there are fundamental truths. I don’t think the lack of trump will change much from the us perspective, they will be looking for new markets & opportunities, we all know EU standards and size protects us from chicken that’s so toxic, it needs to be bleached to make it fit for consumption, but that’s the top of an iceberg. Similar pressures will still exist, drugs companies, farmers and telecoms firms in state will still apply pressure
The other imponderable is, what do all these other countries expect to buy from the U.K. that they don’t already buy from us? I listened to the ex Australian prime minister laughing at our lunacy saying just that, a new trade deal has a small opportunity for Australian companies but nothing for U.K. ones
Aus. Much of what you say about the US wanting has some truth. There’s a but, and it’s a big one. Boris started in this direction once he became the Tory leader, pinning all his plans for Brexit on deals with Donny Trumpets, then came CV19 and both of them have managed to cover themselves in mountains of s**t. There is a very strong chance that in November the US will give Donny his due deserves and he will be on his way with all his big business cronies. Leaving Boris with a big problem having pinned all his hopes in doing deals with Donny. And there is a very big chance that that will happen given Donny’s response to his country’s problems over the last few months. Comcast know this and I bet they are already re thinking there plans for 2021 along with a lot of other big US companies hanging on Donny’s words for the last 3 years... to
"Fleccy - I’m afraid to say that’s utter nonsense."
Lol I thought that would hit a nerve, aren't you in the Irish Republic?
Fleccy - I’m afraid to say that’s utter nonsense. I’m really surprised you’ve not worked out how conned you were. Have you looked around you recently?
"I suspect U.K. telecoms market will be high on the list along with drugs, farming and food"
I doubt it personally. What i do believe is that a lot of the regulatory damage inflicted on BT is due to EU competition and state aid regulation. I can't wait for us to be free of EU regulation.
Fleccy you don’t understand. I’m saying Comcast & Liberty will likely be in the Oval Office campaigning to be included in government grants, U.K. tax breaks etc etc etc. You seem to be expecting a man like Boris Johnson who always sells everyone down the river, to not sell you down the river ? The U.K. government will be getting more and more desperate, do the maths. Outside the EU what exactly do you think their negotiating power is? The us and Australia already buy everything they want from us, EU standards stop that being true in the other direction (thank goodness). Outside the Eu only the us and Australia stand to gain increased exports to U.K. I suspect U.K. telecoms market will be high on the list along with drugs, farming and food
"Fleccy - the conclusions you jump to and the lack of thought behind them worries me"
"The US will want Comcast to have access. To government money, network opportunities, tax deals etc etc etc"
Comcast already have access, they bought Sky. Liberty Global already have access, they bought NTL and re-franchised to Virgin Media.
Are you saying that the US will request the UK government to advantage US companies to the detriment of UK retail and Pension holders?
Why would the US Government be that interested in Comcast and Liberty Global UK's operations anyway? I understand what you're saying, i just disagree with your reasoning.
Fleccy - the conclusions you jump to and the lack of thought behind them worries me
You miss the point about U.K. / US trade negotiations. The US will want Comcast to have access. To government money, network opportunities, tax deals etc etc etc
In the same way they want us drug companies to have unfair access to the nhs and it’s drug deals.......
"But they can prefer cable where available & Comcast can partner with Vm to help build more cable areas. I can’t believe this isn’t part of trade negotiations between U.K. and US"
Why would VM come up in trade negotiations. VM is a purely UK focused business, irrespective of it being part of the Liberty Global group. Sky is also a UK company run as a separate entity to its owner Comcast. Neither Sky, or VM trade directly with the US. As communication companies they may be mentioned as part of security agreements if they have overlapping communications infrastructure, such as Submarine Cables, but that's all.
"When discussing BT you talk about dept being cheap & the time is right to borrow, when talking about Vm and O2 dept is a massive problem?"
I'm not saying that the debt for a VM/O2 is a massive problem, i'm just stating that it makes VM/O2 a much more risky bet than BT. Here are some bullet points that i've used to form my opinion:
1) DEBT
New VM/02 tie up will start out with £18 billion debt, with plans to borrow another £10 Billion for infrastructure spend. Total Debt projected to be around £28 Billion.
BT has approximately £12 Billion of Debt with with around £6 Billion lease liabilities. with total Debt around £18 Billion. I expect leasing liabilities to reduce as BT reduce their property leasing footprint, as the original leasing agreements are coming close to ending.
BT's pension deficit was just over £1 Billion on the 2019/20 EOY results statement, but may increase slightly. BT's debt profile will be much better than the VM/O2 tie up in my opinion.
2) REVENUE
BT over £22 Billion
VM/O2 tie up projected to be under £12 Billion
3) COST SAVINGS
BT has a lot of cost saving opportunities with annual net earnings projected to be up by £2 Billion by 2025.
VM doesn't have the same outlay within it's franchise areas, but as previously stated, the new company is talking about an extra £10 Billion debt to finance an infrastructure spend.
Fleccy - regardless of choice sky makes they need an openreach based product to cover areas Vm are not networked for. But they can prefer cable where available & Comcast can partner with Vm to help build more cable areas. I can’t believe this isn’t part of trade negotiations between U.K. and US
Everything i can currently find is indicating that Sky are on the verge of launching an FTTP product via Openreach. I agree that no big announcements yet, but I suspect this is down to Covid 19.
https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2020/05/isp-sky-broadband-uk-could-launch-ultrafast-fttp-in-june.html
Fleccy - I’m not trying to influence what you do with your Bt shares. I continue to hold mine too. I’m just honestly saying what I think & how I see the risks. In past lives I’ve had dealing with ex us cable executives & know how committed they are to cable type technologies. I don’t agree fully with your assessment of the VM O2 tie up either, even though I expected a Vodafone / Vm association? (Still might be). I often read what you say on here & wish for continuity. When discussing BT you talk about dept being cheap & the time is right to borrow, when talking about Vm and O2 dept is a massive problem? My understanding from the press is the Vm /o2 deal isn’t expected for 2 years. After that I think we will see very aggressive moves. As for sky and Vm being competitors.... yes, but also, in so many ways no. The big decision for sky to use the U.K. cable network is in the other direction, sky will be directly accessing Vm customers with sky “cable” products, which I think will indicate a longer plan for Comcast to eventually own U.K. cable. All conjecture on my part, most of which depends on what happens next ? Let’s hope sky sign up to openreach
Ally like everyone else on here I don’t know, would be fair to say have no clue. But do enjoy speculating! The couple of things we do know are pension numbers should be floating around now, we know Saudi is investing in shares, might they be investing in network too? CPI & RPI Looks like it’s up for discussion again & we know U.K. government has started making announcements for post covid investment & finally as I said, a commitment from sky regarding whose network they plan to rent for the next 10 years is overdue? But I am of the opinion Comcast will want closer ties to a cable infrastructure.
"As I’ve said before, biggest risk to BT is sky / Comcast which is a cable company wanting to use virgin media’s cable network for its services"
I've read your opinion before Aus, about Sky wanting to use VM's network, but i don't see anything to back up that speculative view. There have been some dubious speculative articles around your assertion, but all evidence suggests that VM and Sky are in competition rather than moving to partnership agreements. All the current evidence points to Sky building ties with BT/Openreach.
The VM/O2 tie up is also overblown, it will be a company with huge debt in a highly competitive environment and a highly risky venture in my opinion. The market has a skewed philosophy when it comes to pricing companies and is placing a valuation on a VM/O2 merged company to perfection and valuing BT to almost destruction. I've spent a lot of hours looking at the narrative projected at BT and just don't see it. Any excuse the market can find to knock down BT's valuation, it takes it. I don't agree with the narrative built up around BT, so i'll just hold until the narrative changes.
Aus3009 - whats your thoughts on the high volume of shares traded yesterday?
Hopes for a sky / Bt merger / tie up is probably the most desperate and unlikely thing I have ever read on this board. The much bigger question is why Bt would hand over responsibility for advertising revenue to a sky company? & what were they thinking off & are they now accepting junior partner status. As I’ve said before, biggest risk to BT is sky / Comcast which is a cable company wanting to use virgin media’s cable network for its services where it can & invest in that network where it can’t. Did sky sign that BT wholesale deal yet? They are supposed to commit to using openreach back in April?
Major concern of mine around some of this detail.
SKY owned by COMCAST - substantial outfit
Bkk
“A lot going on Saudis , DT , Sky seems everybody getting their fingers in the pie
Is something developing here?”
The clues are in the shareprice!
Toff
Could sky bt merger
Would they
Would they be aloud
Strange times ahead
Alot going on Saudis , DT , Sky seems everybody getting their fingers in the pie
Is something developing here