BT Share Chat (BT.A)

The 16:42 trade had a trade type of P SDIV, SDIV stands for Special Dividend Indicator apparently.

Very strange trades, why would someone pay more than the market price?

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type
15:53:31 GBX 165.755 468077 775861.0314 Off-Book
15:53:16 GBX 165.755 1108258 1836993.048 Off-Book
15:42:06 GBX 165.755 1576335 2612854.079 Off-Book

Noticed a 3 million purchase at £1.65 after 16:30 - nice !

I wouldn’t read too much into supposed analyst assumptions. I say that because the article says they update their DCF projections every day. If they’re doing that I suspect a set of algorithms prepares 98 % plus of the “analysis “ unless they have legions of analysts which seems unlikely to me.

You are right fleccy but BT are still in dept and SP also reflects confidence in a companies management and there ability to lead the company.
Will not hope for £5 by Christmas and with interest rates due to go up Bt SP may be interesting.
But if dept can be held under control then BT should do very well for long term holders even if its going to be a few years , my view is dividend is good and BT sp is a gift at £1.60 both for an income and long term return, all this is just my view but my only advice to anyone would be dont take my view or advice, DYOR, ( fleccy know you know more about BT than i ever will so good luck)

Handjob you Buffon :) it’s an email from the CWU today

The fool was repeating an old union post from a couple of years’ back. Should have gone to Specsavers.

Here's an article from Simply Wall St:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bt-group-plc-lon-bt-125309003.html

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/telecom/lse-bt.a/bt-group-shares/future

The Simply Wall St (BT.A) web page analyst forecasts don't appear to take account of BT's projected cost saving's up to 2025, so I assume the Analyst projections are indicating any annual savings up to 2025 will be channelled into FTTP/5G capital expenditure. The article goes further and lists "10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast", with the Free Cash Flow estimated to decline post 2026 to 2028. The decline in Free Cash Flow estimate makes no sense to me, as BT are forecasting annual cost savings of £2.5 Billion by the end of 2025 and 25 million homes passed with FTTP at the end of 2026, so am I wrong in assuming capital expenditure will tail off post 2025, with even more cost savings post 2026?
Does anyone have any thoughts on this? Because to my mind the analysts don't take account of BT's projected cost savings, the drop in capital expenditure as the rollouts progress toward completion, or the reduction in pension payments and other cost savings derived from having a more efficient/simple network structure.

Grs24 - where is this posted?

, “BT are now in talks with the CWU on pay now so let’s see how that pans out,”

Nice to see a positive comment, eh

My sell price is £4 fleecy, very optimistic I know and will take a while to get there if they do but we can all hope eh I’m in no rush to sell, BT are now in talks with the CWU on pay now so let’s see how that pans out,

Cut from 260p

Don't pour cold water on your funniest post yet Fleccy! However, would say that the government needs to take the shackles off BT (i.e. Ofcom) and encourage the company to flourish, instead of holding it back at every turn. Still reckon a bid is coming soon (mostlikely combined, from Altice and DT). We'll have to see.

"what would be a fair price if you were buying BT? THATS A QUESTION"

It's a subjective question, dependant on your personal feelings and investment window. Currently the market seems focused on Growth over Dividends, so what's your personal preference? Can you tie up your money for years, and wait for capital profit later? Do you want to reinvest any Dividends, or use them for income now?
So called growth companies, like Google, are apparently valued at 20+ xP/E according to the market, whereas Telecoms is currently down in the dumps with companies like AT&T at around 6x P/E, and BT at around 12xP/E, according to Google. BT is currently heavily investing in FTTP/5G, which is clearly eating into their bottom line, but they've forecasted £2.5 Billion annual cost savings by 2026. Looking forward, BT's capital expenditure will reduce dramatically, the pension deficit repayments will tail off, and the debt lease liabilities will reduce as Exchanges are closed as FTTP progresses.
As I said it's highly subjective, but my personal view is BT's is worth more than twice the current price. It wouldn't surprise me if BT exceeds £4 before 2030, but this is my personal view, DYOR.

Jeffeiries BT buy recommendation target price 250p.

what would be a fair price if you were buying BT? THATS A QUESTION ....

Have a nice day Fleccy. You c’on back ye hear.

To add to my last post, had the UK Government/Regulators focused on allowing UK companies to grow, it would have been the likes of BT looking at taking over Darktrace. No wonder we're the laughing stock of the World.

"Some humour at last Fleccy."

In reality it isn't funny though. British companies don't have a chance of growing into international giants, the UK regulators are quick to jump all over their home companies, whereas the US regulators are extremely good at jumping all over foreign companies. BT's a good example of how you diminish your national companies, allowing foreign companies to move in while you hold back your own. In the name of competition OFCOM have diminished BT's strength and revenue opportunities, allowing foreign (US) companies a discounted foothold in the UK. VMO2 is owned by Liberty Global and Telefonica, CityFibre is owned by Goldman Sachs and Antin Infrastructure Partners. BT have been forced to open up their infrastructure to allow foreign investment discounted access to their infrastructure, thereby diminishing BT's ability to grow outside the UK.
Look at what India did with Vodafone, changing laws retrospectively and chasing them for tax which wasn't legally due. Jio started up and the Indian Government implemented policies making life easy for Jio, while making life extremely difficult for the competition, making it impossible for the competition to profit; Jio is now number One in India, thanks to massive help from the Indian Government. Vodafone India merged with Idea and stiil couldn't profit, so the Goverment now own a stake in Vodafone Idea. Vodafone wrote off their Indian business and were willing to walk away, due to the regulatory position in India, which I suspect the Indian Government didn't foresee.
If Google, Facebook, etc had started out in the UK, the regulators would have been all over them and prevented them growing into global giants, whereas US regulators have all but allowed the Tech Giants to takeover anything and everything, allowing them to grow into their current behemoths. What appears to be happening now, is any innovative UK tech companies are leapt on by US private equity as soon as they start to look successful, what a weak bunch our politicians are. A good metaphor is fiddling while Rome burns. While every other country implements covert protectionism, we just bend over and get shafted.

hold and pray

Some humour at last Fleccy. Well overdue. Keep it up. There's a good lad :)

Yeah Ted Baker and Darktrace, both targetted by US firms. We really have become the 51st state. Thoma Bravo is a US private Equity firm, and Authentic Brands is a US brand management company.
My Grandaughter was over at the weekend and we have a small outdoor playhouse which she turned into a cafe, she made a pretend burger and when I asked her the price she said 5 Dollars, incidentally everything in her pretend cafe was 5 Dollars. We may as well give up, change for Z to zee, and sit on our f@nny's instead of our @rse.

A few UK shares having takeover offers today... Uk is so cheap .. there will be no UK companies left soon.

Yes you sound like a leftie bot Loan Vanker. Most lefties are into that kinda thing. As they say in China, you talk lubbish. Lots of patronising, socialist leaning lubbish. As Boris so rightly said, when the turde moves, the turde moves.

Handymandy.
Most noise? …third and last post on BT, hardly as noisy as your good and so clever self. You keep on yapping and not listening. Again choosing to put your own slant and bias on what you think you read in other peoples comments. Perhaps I am a leftie bot. I would reiterate but no point.

FWIW Telecoms do well in this cycle. BT and anything very UK centric and may offer an opportunity but the risks today are high. Lots of political twist and turns to come first and I have little confidence in the US and UK governments to do the right thing. …ie cut index linked benefits and pensions and make productive paid employment truly pay at the lower end.

If they do the UK may be ok…if they don’t then any business which is UK reliant for earnings will struggle.

Good luck all…