BT Share Chat (BT.A)

BluePete & GBern, I totally agree with you..

Keyboard warriors trying to tear pieces out of other, when in different surroundings you all could be mates down the pub sharing jokes and a couple of beers.

Alternatively, you insult each other and laugh at each others losses or disagreed conclusions and spend most of your time creating a post to try and belittle the other. It actually ruins the BB thread for others, so in fact, you are also very selfish.

Some of you posters should be in Politics, as they all seem to be back stabbing Barstewards as well

BT as a virtual monopoly has destroyed its value over years and now due to inept BoD not forward thinking but only thinking of their own rewards the share price sits at a previous unimaginable low.
When the divi is cut the share will sink again from whatever range it trades at for a period. Almost certainly a given now.
I struggle to understand all the sniping and insults about who is clever and made this profit or that loss on BT or other shares. If registration on these forums/chit chat sites used the same money laundering ID requirements (real names and location) the gobsh*tes (cue gobsh*tes) wouldn't say boo to a goose and perhaps there would be fewer but more level headed posts, but also it would be pretty thinned out as well.
I'm sure my post won't make much difference to those throwing insults at each other ,but many of us who visit this forum prefer some genuine news or ideas about the share price. I just don't get the constant score settling. Perhaps not having enough to occupy might be part of the reason.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/08/18/village-takes-bt-plans-remove-phone-box-saved-nazis/

On a more serious note press reporting more sell offs, Holland this time reported to be £100m

Fleccy,

It very much depends at what price you bought at. Very few private investors bought at 60-70p most private investors bought at bought at the last public placement at £4.20 or bought at levels above £3.

Sadly whenever they will choose to sell they will have lost a major part of their capital outlay. I bought at 203 and 180 I might have a chance to recuperate my losses but I am a realist and the way I see it I am losing money on BT. Thank god I have money in other holdings which are making very good gains.

"You must both be losing thousands of your initial capital investment."

AUS is correct, you only crystallise a loss, or gain, when you sell.
Avro, your thinking is skewed, all I've missed out on is an opportunity
to acquire more shares, with my capital, which would have payed higher
dividends and provided a greater capital gain down the road.
It's pretty clear that you reason things out differently than me.
Where I see a missed opportunity, you see a cash loss.
I don't agonise over sitting on a paper loss, I just see it as part of investing
and either invest more, or invest elsewhere and don't worry about it.
Cutting through all the rhetoric, equities outperform over time, so not withstanding
some cataclysmic event, my investments should reap rewards in the future.
The current situation, in relation to UK focused stocks, like Lloyds, BT and many others,
is that Brexit is causing huge outflows, by international investors, as evidenced from UK funds.
I live in the UK, so the value of sterling is of no consequence to me. Fear of a sterling collapse
is driving international investors to shun the UK, but I believe that Brexit is overblown and
irrespective of Deal, or No Deal, international money will flood back after the initial shock subsides.
At some point, post Brexit, UK stocks will be seen as a bargain, so i'll just keep ploughing money in now
and wait out the negative sentiment. Like they say, no reward without risk, but I see the risk as being low.
I've yet to see any investment strategy from you, apart from broadcasting negativity.

Avrohom I’ve obviously missed out several colourful adjectives for both you and village. The obvious response to your clowning around is it’s simply none of your business what I or anyone else does with their investments. It’s also true to say unless shares are sold there’s no money lost. In terms of my strategy (not that it’s any of your business) is working out okay. During the falling share price I’ve concentrated on increasing the number of shares without adding capital I can increase share numbers for free hoping for a recovery & get increased dividends or convert the difference to free cash whilst maintaining same number of shares... so no in my case you’re not right, not at all, but you can carry on making a fool out of yourself if you like trying to clown around other people’s business, you’re right about one thing, no you don’t understand, may I refer you to my previous Brexit supporter description, so it’s okay I expect very little from you.

Just because Lamtree and myself got it right. That does not justify calling us nutters,idiots, lunatic and fools. Aus and Fleccy both of you who have got it really badly wrong. You must both be losing thousands of your initial capital investment. You seem to get comfort by getting a small dividend. I personally can not see the logic of your investment strategy but I respect your choices and do not insult you.

. . . and divi payment day - and so the shackles are officially removed from BT's ankles, leaving it to run free unhindered.

Free to return up to the pre XD day SP?
- Or as in most (but not all) previous years, free to continue on the measured down trending route it was on, before being so rudely interrupted?

In attempting to answer that, I reveal Exhibit One your honour (swishes away a dust cover from Exhibit One to reveal an OVERSOLD CONDITION. The jury and gallery gasps in horror, as the prosecutor continues:

Yes, BT technically entered Oversold Condition on 14th August m'lud, and you know what that means? It's supposed to "rise" out of it, once the oversold condition exhausts itself. So how close is the oversold condition to exhaustion in relation to the natural "push" on being released from XD period on Sept 9th?
I'd say a perfect match - for a price rise. If not, then the market really, really, hates BT with a vengeance.

Consider:
It only entered Oversold Condition barely 3 trading days ago, so is young and characteristically BT likes it's oversold tumours to grow for at least a fortnight or two before lancing them, so Sept 9th fits like a glove!

Omens are A1 - for a lift out of 160's if still at this price juncture (or worse) from Sept 9th onwards.

Thank you, I rest my case, your honour.

---------------------
The Judge's summing up before passing sentence:

It's tempting to say XD period is responsible for the temporary O/sold condition, but it measures the SPEED of the drop in price movement, not just a decrease, and the SP was speedily wilting quite badly right up to the last day + add the XD period and it hit the tipping point - and over it went, leading eventually to this O/sold condition (extreme bearish sentiment).
I believe if the SP had behaved similar to last year's corresponding XD period there would not have been enough speed in the SP drop, to trigger the event.

Last year's XD period did not trigger any O/Sold conditions. There was one right in early May 2018 and when it came out of that, it led to the greatest bull run since Jan 2016, right through to the last day of Nov 2018, but there was no O/Sold presence observed in last year's similar XD period.

So it's a 'potential' double whammy positive.

1) A natural lift is due after exiting XD period
and
2) A further natural lift (but not always a big lift) after coming out of O/Sold condition; and as of Friday it is admittedly only a weedy, embryonic, oversold condition developing.

However, if the SP holds here (and no lower, further drops) until Sept 9th - the O/Sold condition will peter out dismally and the SP recover only modestly.

Final summary of the latest brokers analyst updates for Q2 v Q1 only (in isolation from comparing to previous year's actuals).

I guess with each update everyone is looking for a floor. Instead of depressing decreases, the name of the game is look out for the 'same condition' as the previous year, for starters ie., not more decreases (not expecting increases so soon) just a same as last year trading result - That would be a start on the road back.

Based on Q2 forecasts that situation has not yet hoved into view, as even beating analysts 'downbeat' forecasts would still not result in this current year even just matching the previous year's trading result - let alone come in higher.

But a small kink of light, maybe, if you just compare the analysts thinking on BT qtr by qtr.

Q1 Forecast for Revenue was = £5.589BN
Q2 Forecast for Revenue is = = £5.769.5BN

Q1 Forecast for Net Profit was = £420.5m
Q2 Forecast for Net Profit is = = £498.5m

----------------------------------------------------

- So in essence, the analysts overall, see Q2 as a fiscal improvement over Q1. Not much to go on, but battered long term holders might take some comfort from the fact that Q2 is not forecast to be less than Q1. That's something at least.

(The bearish sentiment the market is displaying, comes from extending those to full year results which shows forecasts coming in less than last year's actual trading results).

I think the analysts have been too downbeat in their forecasts as Q1 'actual' trading results came in above the midway average forecast expectations, particularly net profit.

I'm holding to the charge that next Q2 actuals (to be published on 31st October) to once again (as per Q1) come in higher by some margin over the analysts forecasts.

Thought I'd have a break from letting peoples tyres down.

If you leave this planet broke having just spent your last penny and had a great time along the way I would say that’s a fantastic achievement fleccy and so much better than leaving behind a pot of gold you and yours could have enjoyed in your lifetime (and of course those left behind are ok).
I‘d also suggest that anyone who’d rather choose to spend their moments sending hate mail to someone they don’t know and who actually might be really good people find something better to do with their time.

Not that I plan to waste too much of my Saturday looking for any sense from our lunatic village idiot, but I will take the opportunity to clarify what I’ve said in the past, that being I think people have the right to do what ever they want with their money without fools like you telling them to do otherwise. As Brexit voter and supporter I can’t really think any less of you than I do, regardless of how hard you try. By that one action I already know exactly what you are & none of that includes the ability to correctly process information or truth into an opinion worth listening too.

yes well done aus with your spelling,yet year after year BT has plummeted and I do not see how a profitable business(your words not mine)can see its share price decline into the abyss.
And yes we all know you stated that you enjoy losing money(weird to say the least)but no sane person enjoys losing money.

Fleccy,you will leave this planet broke.

Iamtree, if you could back up your rhetoric with any solid data, then people might listen to you. The problem with your posts are that you just say that they'll keep going down, "the trend is your friend" and suggesting the market's never wrong, when there are plenty of occasions when the market gets it wrong, which usually leads to huge reversals one way, or the other.
Backup your statements with something tangible, because all I see happening with BT, is market sentiment at rock bottom for no visible reason, other than the market is forcing BT's price down for its own motives. I'm a contrarian investor, the more negativity towards BT, the more I want to invest without any concrete evidence that the drop is deserved and it doesn't really matter how ow it goes, because i'm sure it will pay me back, down the road, either through dividends, or capital, or both and since i don't have a time limit on return of capital, I can wait.
My motives are clear, I believe in my investments and put my money where my mouth is, i'm not sure what your's and Avro's motives are.

Village, sometimes it’s difficult to dream end to your kind of dumb. BT is a profitable business, I even spelt it out to help you.. you know the £2bln bit

So basically avoid buying shares in profitable companies Aus?

Our resident village idiot & Troll is wrong again!!! I’m kind of betting there’s not going to be any examples of those posts from me. BTW, BT is profitable, some where round the £2bln mark.

Lamtree, have you received your prize for the worlds most boring forum comments yet?, it appears you're going for second and third place as well?

Whos the rest of us? and ,'predictable fall?'',,,I keep getting told by you and fleccy just how profitable this company is and you predict a fall.
You just couldnt make it up where this boards concerned.

Whilst you’re all arguing amongst yourselves, the rest of us have either increased holding or created cash, by maintaining their holding. I’ve added couple of thousand extra shares without having to spend any of my money or reinvest dividends. It’s really not difficult to improve your position for a future recovery or bank the difference. A Predictable fall is fine by me right now. Sell, drop then choose your buy back option for more shares or same number & take cash.

Married and straight but an exception to being shafted by BT.

"physiological barrier"
Eh?!?

Must have been thinking of footballers physio treatments or something

- psychological barrier!!!

Out today (the 16th Aug) broker's analysts forecasts for Q2 ending Sept 30th (Actual results achieved to be published on Oct 31st) and by definition the H1 result.
(All forecasts revealed on BT's site).

Very latest broker's analysts forecasts for Revenue are (There's 15 brokers in all, but for this Q2 update only 10 have produced a consensus forecast whilst only 5 went further and included a net profit forecast).
- Throughout there are highest and lowest that are totalled to reveal median and mean averages. To get one single answer, I've taken their two totals of "median" and "mean" and divided by 2, so for instance revenue median is £5,777m and mean is £5,762m ergo: £5,769.5m.

Revenue for Q2 = £5.7bn (£5,769.5m)
--------------------------------------------

Q1 Actual result was £5.633bn so the very latest forecast as of today, is to achieve a higher revenue performance in Q2.
(Q1 revenue was 1% down on last years Q1 actual).

((Also, I make the Q2 forecast slightly below last year's actual Q2 revenue)).

/

NET profit for Q2 = £4.985bn (£498.5m)
------------------------------------------------

Q1 actual net profit result was £505m so Q2 is forecasting a small decrease in net profit.
I thought the Q1 net profit forecast unusually downbeat and said so at the time. The actual Q1 result "destroyed" the analysts gloomy net profit forecast. So staying on the same track and expecting Q2 net profit to beat analysts forecasts.

So where does that leave the, brand new today, very latest full year forecasts? >>>>

----------------------------

Current full year, very latest Revenue forecast is for = £23bn (£23,007m)
Last year actual was £23.459bn so no change there in a continuation of y-o-y declines in revenue forecast by the analysts.

Current full year very latest NET profit forecast is for = £2bn (£2,008m)
Last year actual net profit was £2.159bn (£2,159m) so the first year in a couple of years, to cease the increasing y-o-y increases in net profit.

As said, until the Q2 results come out on Oct 31st, I'm a little more bullish on net profit beating analysts forecasts as they have a bad habit of underestimating net profit.

At least £2bn net profit is an improvement on what the Q1 indicated for the full year. Something I suppose.
Net profit has not fallen below £2bn - for 3 years or so!

Below £2bn net profit is a physiological barrier that would further impact sentiment IMO, just as sub £20bn revenue would, and sub 200p has the SP.
- So, it's on the cards for no sub-£2bn net profit this year at least!

"I was getting worried that Fleccy was not going to be able to buy any more bargain shares."

Worried about me? That's cool Avrhomo, but you need to know that i'm married and straight, so you'll have to continue your on off thing with lametre

Ses the window licker.