The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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I think a lot of the price erosion expected is the 120M 1.27p shares in conjunction with the over half year wait for rig mobilisation.
That will almost certainly have a significant impact on the shorter term SP movement, especially after the recent move from sub 1.5p, imo.
Atb
While i do agree with your sentiment of be careful on this one PandT. I do have to somewhat disagree on the rest...
- dilution is 5.5% so i cant see this bringing the SP down the way you say it will. I think alot (maybe not all) of the reduction is already built into the price as its already public info
-farm in- who knows whats going on in the background. I keep swinging between camps, do i don't i. Currently sat in the i would prefer to do this thing alone then farm in for a much greater price.
- partially agree with the updates over huricane season. There will be some as we build into it however this will tend to be within a month of spud
-SP pre spud. I dont see why this cant hit close to 10p region. I have my own personal target which is 8p. But given previous price movement. This does suggest we could get close!
My final thought is the dilution. As mentioned above i believe alot of this is factored in the price already and we will see some retrace but not massive.
Just remember that without this dilution we wouldnt have the funds to drill, so for me its just another step closer to the drill that is ticked off the list!
Have a good day all
Interesing article for those short on shares.
https://www.indifferentlanguages.com/words/thursday
This is going to keep rising leading upto pre spud, regardless of what people post on here.
Agreed on the basic sentiment of your post Pumpandtrump if not the specific price projections.
I think on rig mobilisation leading to actual spudding, we can reasonably expect a somewhat higher share price than the 4-5p you state, whilst completely disregarding some of the rather absurd figures being bandied around (referring to relative market caps of BPC at those prices v bona fide major oil producers).
However, some of those figures are still bandied about here regardless of the aforementioned, real life comparisons......??
The 120M dilution shares will likely have the 25-30% knock on effect on the price, especially considering the massive uplift over the last week, from short term trader recommendations (refer to Zak Mir).
The family group aren't investing in a property or business with established revenues, so it's bizarre to say they wouldn't realize 'immediate profits' off a derisking strategy but hold for the result of a drill - most here will judiciously derisk before drill results but presume the Family group with 120M 1.27p shares are outright 'gamblers' - that's pure BB mentality.
We also have the over half year wait for actual rig mobilisation and a 2 month further wait onto 2021 for drill results - do we expect no price erosion for the vast majority of that time period?
Some would argue it's going to go to 10p by the end of the week and sit there for all that time, lol.....again, pure BB mentality.
I have a considerable holding here and sitting comfortably in an ISA. What the price does in the meantime is no real concern looking forward to 2021. However, neither would I be unrealistic on actual shorter term movements.
If we see a price erosion over the coming months to circa2p, which I would suspect will be the case, I'd pick some more up - at least that's a lot more realistic than those stating 120M shares @1.27p about to be dumped into the market 'won't have an effect' - that's just silly - as is the expectation that a 7month 'hanging around' for actual operations, won't further erode the price.
I hope that presents a balanced and fair perspective.
Atb & have a lovely day all
Pumpandtrump,
That's definitely managing your expectations matey. A pleasant change from the ebullient expectations. Cheers.
I am confident that:
We will spud
The dilution of share will send the sp down around 25-30%
There will be no farm out
There will be hardly any updates over the hurricane season
This will not touch 10 or +10 pre spud
I do however believe that the sp will be between 4-5 pre spud, if you can weather the above trembles there could be quite the pay off if we were to strike oil!
Sorry if some posters do not like reality but I have been investing in oil for a long time and have heard all of the stories before. (Learnt all the lingo in the DES chat)
Be careful on this one peeps, they will have you believe that it is a certain multi bagger and be nowhere to be found when this is back at 2.
IMO