Advance Energy #ADV are actively tracking oil & gas deals - expect an announcement 'within months'Watch Now
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PageofCups - Yes I agree: curious and very intriguing. I think the first rule of investing is to believe in the management. I have never met any of our BoD but, seeing the obstacles they have faced over the last few years and how they have nevertheless tried to steer a clear (and hopefully improved) path, even through the headwinds this year, I think we will all be glad of their tenacity. Well I hope so anyway! Onwards.....
People should remember the IceMAX has not long since finished drilling off Cyprus, I don’t think the Titanic would have suffered the same issue if its maiden voyage had been to Ayia Napa.
Stena are more than just a contractor here. They have a VESTED interest as well as idle rigs.
Yonny. I'll keep my fingers and toes crossed aswell. Can't get my head around ICEMAX being used. Harsh environment rig commanding highest day rate yet saving 15% on drill cost??. Times must be hard for them..or they're looking after themselves with that drillship on any JV with BPC. Getting exciting.
Hi PageofCups - Yes, indeed, I still believe that BHP would tick plenty of boxes for us (though I wonder if that is just wishful thinking on my part: let’s keep fingers crossed!) I was spooked on catching up reading the board today by the earlier talk of Repsol. That I would be concerned about. I know they have done good, but I have never trusted them since the Namibia drill (2012 with Tower? - can’t remember: so many of these small oily gambles over the years). Whoever or whatever our route turns out to be I shall just be glad to get spudded before any other world event (contrived or natural) affects us. Glad to see you are still keeping your finger on the pulse of this: your posts this week have been great.
I knew you were good but didn’t realize how GOOD!
Thank you very much for that commentary – very much appreciated.
On the 15th April 2013, LTHs will remember this News from Simon Potter:
"2012 was a busy year for Bahamas Petroleum which recently culminated in significant progress for the Company. We have worked relentlessly to progress towards our ultimate goal of drilling an exploration well to evaluate the scale of hydrocarbon resources.
"Last year saw the election of a new Government in The Bahamas which subsequently provided clarity on the good standing of the Company's licences and our compliance with all legislation, regulations and licence requirements. 2013 has already got off to an exciting start with the Government confirming that, following adoption of revised environmental regulations by parliament, Bahamas Petroleum can undertake exploratory drilling prior to a referendum process, which will only be held once commercial hydrocarbon reserves have been established. This clarification on the referendum will assist the Company with its various discussions that are taking place with potential farm-in partners.
"Over the past year, we have been actively de-risking potential well locations and commenced initial planning for the start of drilling, notably by tying the extensive in-house core, chippings and log dataset to interpretation of the newly available, fully processed 3D data volumes. This work not only improved our understanding of the geology and thus detailed prospectivity but also provided us with a sufficient level of confidence to proceed with a FEED plan which provided an initial well design and identified long lead items and schedule for the drilling of an exploration well.
"Our focus is now firmly on developing this fresh political mandate into progress with potential farm-in partners and thus drilling preparations over the next 12-18 months. That drilling will proceed under strengthened and modernised regulations is to be welcomed as this will provide the Government, as well as the people of the Bahamas, sound assurance of a solid environmental and safety framework consistent with international best practices. We are closer than ever to realising our goal of exploring the hydrocarbon potential of the Bahamas and look forward to the near-term future with excitement and confidence."
So this is why LTHs are skeptical. If the well is drilled then good. But the BG could still pull the plug with yet another excuse.
GL all. Read the RNSs from 2010 on BPC's new website.
Tiburn - TVM for excellent recent posts; Interestking - good to see you back in full flow!; Bryn - TVM for common sense. Starchild - TVM for your constant support when the rest of us very LTHs had given up: quite right that the bulldog’s name would be inappropriate - the only name conceivable in any naming/re-naming of our field if successful, must be the ‘AB’ or the ‘Alan’.
Tiburn. your post was very good as it explains in relatively simple language, some of the observations found in this 8 page scholarly article by an Aussie expert, Balakrishnan Kunjan.
It discusses Cos vs percentages and how it is assessed. Worth a read but you need a few cups of coffee first, as it's quite detailed.
Was against the merger and still would be.
The merger has happened, so we have to view the investment accordingly.
A ‘staggered buying’ approach was utilised, the last being a good top us with the greater reassurance that the ‘breakout’ brings.
I expect this to be a multiple of current levels on rig mobilisation, with a price progression reflective of past precedents here with such (the sharp move, very short consolidation and further push, a typical example).
I hope those observations are more useful and pertinent to the actual investment case, then discussing Hitler and his regime.
Perhaps we could have stock relevant Napoleonic references next! ;)
De-stress & enjoy this Sunday
Another thought on a rolling programme of drill, prove up and sell a licence, move onto next block target.
We have heard a lot about P#1 and its location - " In total the B structure extends for between 70 and 80 kms, has a mapped areal closure over 400 km2 and has an aggregate most likely recoverable resource potential in excess of 2.0 billion barrels"
What they havnt issued from the data room is the number of total target drilling areas, we have 3 drills identified only, they must have evaluated many more sites over the years whilst they waited for a Farm In.
It would be emergent of course aswell, as each drill results delineates the next target better etc, but even so, the corroborating evidence identifying all target drill zones from the multiple different types of analysis would be comprehensive and cogent.
New investors could benefit from reading the Sept 3rd 2019 RNS, it expands on the 35% Cos markedly and imo provides a lot more surety than that 1 in 3 industry conservative standard means of assessing the potential for strike.
Four corroborating studies:
1. Seismic Attribute Mapping - Self Organising Maps (SOM)
The Company has thus undertaken a seismic attribute study of its 3D data, making use of leading-edge industry technology. The objective of this study is to better determine the fracture and fault network local to proposed well locations.
2. Geophysical / seismic interpretation
The Company has successfully undertaken a detailed evaluation of seismic amplitude, attribute and velocity from the Company's 3D data.
3. Paleogeographic reconstruction
This study has corroborated the likely presence of a Late Jurassic oil-prone source rock and active petroleum system in the Santaren Channel, which is the precise location of BPC's licences and the intended drill site. This Late Jurassic source rock is analogous to the Smackover interval producing in deep-water Eastern US Gulf of Mexico, and has also been calibrated as the source of nearby onshore Cuba oil production.
4. Cuban oil sample analysis
Through a reciprocal technical cooperation agreement with the Cuban National Oil Company ("CUPET"), the Company accessed 3D seismic data adjoining the BPC's licence areas in Cuban waters. In addition, CUPET provided to BPC oil samples that were subsequently independently analysed to assess the age and chemistry of the source rock linked to onshore production in Cuba.
"In short, the Company considers the results of these studies to be significant, in that they may directly indicate the presence of hydrocarbons in the structure(s) at the intended drilling location(s). This adds to the already sizeable body of evidence, derived both internally and from independent advisors and experts, in support of the Company's view that technical risk of the prospects is relatively low, thereby increasing confidence in a successful outcome of the exploration well(s)."
Multiple targets, rolling programme.
Just use the ‘block user’ facility (as per my previous post), rather than working yourself into a hissy fit. ;)
Have a good weekend
Petrodollar / Bonum
If you repeat something often enough, It will eventually become the truth. Joseph Goebbels used this propaganda trick to great effect. His statements were often lies. I am not insinuating that you are lying, but your repetition of the same message day in day out, is as tiring as reading the bickering between IKrapp et al. We had to endure your ‘staggered buying’ approach, then post merger your desperation to bring the share price down. Now you’ve reappeared again as a bull, which I like and agree with, but please could you come up with some tangible information other than how much you expect the price to rise from these levels.
Give it a rest!
I will be your wingman any day!
We used to have fun on this board until we inherited a bunch of merger folks!
Now then come on down if ya think you’re good enough!
P$ - just easily bored these days. I spent too many hours reading these BB's which is time I will never get back.
As for attempting to censure folk - that will be a no.
I do, however, get extremely bored with the inane name calling between a lot of the newer posters here. It did used to be very straightforward here with on topic chats with the occasional cheery chatter about life in general and was not so full of the current state of play with lots of name calling etc. It was dare I say it civilised and most of the sensible ones from the iii and advfn boards migrated here for that very reason.
Instead my use of the filter has turned my attention away from the schoolyard stuff. I am very chilled but occasionally I get a little frustrated with the many claims of what will be within the next hour kind of @rap.
I have added a few more to the filter in the short term to ensure I will remain quite chilled.
The frustration of lack of updates is of course getting to most folk and I would rather my time spent on the board is spent reading stuff which may be useful - like most folk would love me to stop "preaching" I suppose.
"we’re all grown ups" - I am not always sure of that - I do know some have been grown up for a lot longer than some haha!!
I'll be on my best behaviour as I won't be privvy to the stuff that 'huffs' me.
Stay safe ;@)
Maybe you need to let yourself unwind a bit more often Bryn - most of your posting seems to be about censuring other people’s contributions, based on what you deem is ‘acceptable’ posting or not.
Let it go & let people post what they want - we’re all grown ups and can ignore or block whomsoever we wish.
If you wish to keep preaching about posting etiquette, that’s also your prerogative of course.
Luv ya fella - always have (how many years? )- always will.
Glad we had one of you keeping us safe!
Good words Interesking - we do hear a little bit of the negative impact as we are in the time of Climate Change Matters and it is the done thing to reject things fossil fuel related - however, as you quite nicely put it - the Bahamas does need this, perhaps more than I need to make a few bob out of it.
Oil has been power for many a decade and the world still fights wars as a result. The placid nature of the Bahamas makes the area a very safe and secure domain to explore - bar any mechanical or man-made mishap. I do think the latter is the one to be concerned about. We currently have no warlords making claim to the area, so hopefully by this time next year we will be well on the way to having 3D seismic or even 4D seismic reports in Uruguay waters.
Pleasant dreams all and have a very safe, if socially distanced weekend ;@)
Exactly. It's the best CoS well. I think from memory it's going through 4 potential payload areas. So my thoughts were they drill through 4, then hopefully multiple are oil baring, increasing the CoS of the next drill targetting that fields sweet spot and banking some (hopefully) significant P1 reserves.
Hadn't realised the third drill was for a different block.
I agree with IK, i see it like a big win or nothing. If there's oil the hype will kick in an begin to derisk/increase CoS across the rest of the blocks as they drill more wells...it's the financing of how they do that which could potentially unlock the £1+ returns IMHO
And quite right too.
This is one of those that can make a difference IMHO.
I’ve permanently got my finger where the sun don’t shine these days.
Best wishes to you.
I know it is one or the other i was trying to get a general fix as to how one might value such an asset and do accept that is very much finger in the air and see what happens.
Tib exactly mon ami.
Mate as I’ve said many times I am not on oilie.
However I do know Finance/ M&A/socioeconomics etc and the numbers that are being aimed @ go far beyond trying to guesstimate what happens to The SP. I.E. price per barrel.
As I said t’otherday and several times previously –“1 drop of oil”will explode this like never before. This region has been a sacrosanct tourist/finance area.
The geology bespeaks it. The desperation of bankrupt nation/s bespeaks it.
The will has never been there before because tourism and finance made everyone wealthy or comfortable. I speak from experience of having had oversight of a Bahamian financial offices.
And I am not being patronising – I love the people there and have many friends.
BUT they are being crippled as per World events. As are many Carib Nations.
I can see 25p on success of any magnitude.
If we hit target of 1.77 – 1bill plus everyone will be talking - the next well and the next well and then buyout.
Stick with it pal and don’t get transfixed by the detail.
This is BIG or it is NOTHING.
Assuming we find 1bn barrels what would be fair price to get for that per barrel if oil is at $40 per barrel. I was thinking somewhere between £5-7.5 per barrel or is that being ridiculous.
I remember SP saying in an interview that P#1 wasnt the biggest target, but best CoS
so bigger targets for BPC to develop later