London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Bynari, Very good find if you pardon the pun, re your post on CERP BB earlier today https://tinyurl.com/ybhgrk6f. Although the interview was from 2013, everything still applies. It took the BGov until Feb 2020 to give environmental approval, so I don't think its fair for some folks to lay the full blame on the BoD for delays while they were simultaneously searching for farm-in partners. BPC has now spent c$100m vs $50m in 2013 proving oil is there (or as stated in the interview, trying to disprove it). I also found the part of the interview at 5 mins 30 seconds interesting about news flow for 6-12 months leading to spud..... significantly increasing BPC SP.
Starchild
Laalee did you just get a call from Bully? My post below in case you didn’t see it.
Bully you have spoken shi* on this board from ever since I’ve been a member on here. You quote figures that are entirely false to try and mislead this board and deprive investors of a decent share price. You only present false negative views. I had blocked you for a while but I wondered if you were still spreading false rumours and it’s clear you are. Lse will clock onto it and will either ban you or just delete your posts. Especially if you are spreading fake news, there’s Facebook for that mate. You are the sort of person who spreads news that drinking gallons of silver will save you from Covid. Clearly false as like are your other posts. You have also either employed a team to back you up or you are posting under different aliases. Give it a rest mate, most people don’t listen to your rubbish. Get on with your day job and go and deramp another share.
zzzzzzzz
Bully you have spoken shi* on this board from ever since I’ve been a member on here. You quote figures that are entirely false to try and mislead this board and deprive investors of a decent share price. You only present false negative views. I had blocked you for a while but I wondered if you were still spreading false rumours and it’s clear you are. Lse will clock onto it and will either ban you or just delete your posts. Especially if you are spreading fake news, there’s Facebook for that mate. You are the sort of person who spreads news that drinking gallons of silver will save you from Covid. Clearly false as like are your other posts. You have also either employed a team to back you up or you are posting under different aliases. Give it a rest mate, most people don’t listen to your rubbish. Get on with your day job and go and deramp another share.
Star, many on this board see that you consider anything that opposes your views on the proposed merger as negative when other posters may consider their opposing views, reality.
Both you and Bully are deep into the technicalities and financials of BPC. For me and I think I speak for a few others, just want BPC to get on with what we have been waiting for, sh*t or bust, for the last ten years and what would have happened pre CV19, and do not want the added complication of this merger proposition. I mean where did it spring from.
Bully's Fake news post 3. He 'forgot' to mention RNS 1/6/20 that superseded the one he quoted.
RNS 1/6/20 bottom of page 2 with my CAPS for emphasis....: https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w11dm9w ……
‘As announced on 1 May 2020, the investor has previously converted, in aggregate, £3.165 million of the amounts drawn down by the Company into new ordinary shares. The Company has now received a conversion notice in respect of the remaining balance of £1.535 million, at a conversion price of 1.27 pence per share, and, pursuant to the terms of the Facility, the Company will proceed to issue 120,866,141 new ordinary shares (the "Conversion Shares") to the investor. Thereafter, there will be NO FURTHER CONVERTIBLE NOTES REMAINING ON ISSUE and the Company will have NO debts owing under the Facility and NO material debts owing to any other parties. The Company considers an essentially DEBT-FREE balance sheet with retained cash holdings to be an advantageous position as it looks to develop its funding strategy in a changed market landscape, ahead of drilling in late 2020’.
[My bottom line: Warning: always DYOR, check previous posts by clicking on their name, and assume the person posting has a conflict of interest including me. Why would anyone want to say negative things about a share they purportedly own, unless they don’t]
Starchild
Bully's post is again misleading and stating as facts what are NOT facts.
1. CERP shares 800m post merger in BPC equivalent NOT 935m
2. 200m Warrants irrelevant until 2021-2024 IF SP soars. Refer to my post this morning .
3. Rest of his 'evidence' is totally fabricated stating as fact the BoD have committed to the need to issue 1.8b shares making the total 5-5.5b. Refer to my point 3 from this morning. And he has used misquoted RNSs from May/June as a precedent that if a CLN is executed it will be at around 1.2p!!!
Bully: stop this mis-information. Assuming you have any shares, I suggest you sell them if you are so worried about mega dilution and don't trust the BoDs who unanimously voted in favour of the merger . I suspect and allege you are just shorting the stock for personal gain at the expense of others.
Bully1985’s post is misleading. My commentary in [ ]
1. Let's talk about the shares in issue - you say there are 3.4billion in issue after the merger. [correct, INCLUDING shares to pay off Lind debt. See point 5 ]
2. This ignores the convertible loan options and other options and warrants currently outstanding. [As at merger date there are NO BPC CLNs that can be triggered. Outstanding debt: NONE. Cash in the bank: approx. 10m BPC + c2m? CERP]
3. When the loan is fully drawn down it will have created convertible shares of approximately 1.25billion @ 1.28p. [WHAT LOAN? WHERE DID he get a figure of 1.28p from relating to future CLNs if any? NO RNS has been issued stating this will happen. Refer to BPC email received last week and my commentary on the BPC BB 9/7/20 0309 AM. It discusses future funding options and future dilution.]
4. There are currently a further 200million share option or warrants outstanding @ 2.34p average. [These are part of the directors and staff incentive packages, many of whom have worked with reduced pay or no pay. BoD options and warrants are usually triggered when a company is doing very well, otherwise there is no point triggering them! They are a common incentive for public companies worldwide, with the exception of dictatorships where the incentive to perform is to avoid being imprisoned or getting shot. ]
5. There are also further shares issue for the repayment of the Lind loan facility to come (although can't find any exact figures - assume another 500m shares) [This is FALSE and the assumption WRONG. Lind debt will be paid off by Trafalgar with 80m shares NOT 500m. These 80m are included in the 3.4b total in point 1 above. ]
6. So assuming no further dilution you are looking at closer to 5.5billion shares. Given the reduction on the current SP of these share option and warrants they will be sold into and the surpress the SP for a long time. [Bully’s bottom line maths is based on misleading exaggerations and as such the calculations irrelevant and WRONG ]
7. on the subject of dilution BPC asked for further issuance of new shares for the BoD (laughable given their current options) and for further shareholders so unlikely there will not be further dilution. [Refer to point 4 re BoD incentive]
[My bottom line: to have a difference of opinion is fine. To scaremonger based on fake information and exaggeration of the known facts is NOT. Bully should sell his shares (if he has any) and go off and short another company]
Starchild
Assuming for simplicity there are 3.4b shares in the combined BPC/CERP after merger, using figures as stated in recent presentations which talked of a combined market cap of £125m this equates to a SP of 3.67p. However for the sake of this exercise, let’s be conservative and use a combined market cap of c£100m and 3p per BPC share as a bottom line base, on the morning after the merger.
What will affect this 3p baseline until year end are two sets of future news: BPC news relating to events leading to the Bahamas spud and CERP news on everything else. For simplicity I will use the following assumptions:
1. BPC news post-merger will affect c75% of the overall SP and market cap; CERP news c25%.
2. BPC news expected will likely deal purely with the spud, and in February 2020 experts predicted 8p. For simplicity, rather than a prediction on my part, let’s assume this figure is 6p post-merger, not taking into account CERP news, but taking into account 800m new CERP converted shares.
3. CERP news expected post-merger (courtesy of LGO-fan 8/7/20) includes
• New Contract for Goudron with far better terms, allowing for more profitable BOPDs
• Test results from S1 (MC), and turning this into a producer
• Start drilling S2 ASAP
• Successful CO2-project
• Concrete Plans for WNZ
4. LGO-fan also predicted possibility of 5-10p SP had CERP remained as now, un-merged, based on above news.
Key questions:
(a) How much will the £100m market cap (3p/share) increase based on the above scenarios leading to a DEFINITE Perv-1 spud?
(b) How will the SP change based on positive or negative CERP news?
(c) What will happen when other institutional investors in addition to J Finn and Mersey pension fund, have a flutter based on the huge ROI potential of finding a middle eastern sized oil field 1st qtr 2021? (Remember a small flutter on their part, equates to a typical private investor’s life’s savings)
All constructive feedback welcome.
Starchild
xxx