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No I sold recently, I see them sat as they are now with a BOD draining the remaining funds and trying to drum up interest in far fetched projects that won't benefit anyone but themselves. Sorry to be so negative but when you look at how the BOD destroyed shareholders value in the last 4 months I'd not ever trust them again.
There's no farm in to be had here, the smart play (if) a major was interested is just to wait for the licences expire then buy them. Why on earth would the want to effectively take on a company made up of people who just drawing a wage and have done so for over 10trs now with nothing to show for it? Add in the fact that drilling i the pristine waters of the Bahamas optically looks awful and any issues could be horrific and I think it's clear to see that drilling in the Bahamas is an extremely bad play especially when considering this well was a duster.
Nelly you hit the nail on the head with this "until we have further update on the technical analysis of P1 finding, no-one here knows how much oil was or was not found." Infact no one knows much of anything until the company choose to spill the beans. What is getting difficult is deciphering the wheat from the chaff or more to the point who is genuinely posting their honest opinions and not trying to manipulate this one way or the other. Like I've already said I've topped up on the hope we can get back to 2p just with the ex Cerp assets before end of the year. Anything else positive regarding P1 or P2/farm in or out/Majors/Super Majors would be a massive bonus and hopefully far exceed my initial l target of 2p. At this moment in time it is a gamble as we haven't been told officially if / who they are in discussions with or what exactly was or wasn't found and how those discussions shape the future plans for BPC. I understand the risk and the gamble I have taken. Now Where's this RNS?
PDUK, until we have further update on the technical analysis of P1 finding, no-one here knows how much oil was or was not found. It might not have been enough to fill a car. It might have been 100 million barrels. The market has not been told. You have no right to misrepresent the findings as zero oil found.
Technically, this well was always pre-determined to be a 'duster' on the basis it would never be used for extraction, therefore, never produce a single barrel. That didn't stop people from buying the share, on the expectation that further wells would be drilled, to extract a commercial find.
Do you really think it is the norm, for a drilling company to rock up, drill one exploration well and say "right boys, we've hit. Let's spend $5 billion on setting up extraction infrastructure at this exact location"?
As for this being a free forum, what difference does that make to sentiment? I can get free news from BBC radio. Does that mean the news is not true, because I didn't pay for it?
Any forum can influence the sentiment of anything, if enough people say the same thing, enough times, to enough people. If you do not understand that, I think you need to go back to school.
"In fact, by the time ExxonMobil had acquired rights to explore the 6.6 million acres Stabroek block, 22 wells, from as far back as the 1970s, had already been drilled by other companies on the coastal shelf outside the southern boundaries of the block. All were non-commercial."
"Generally, you drill the biggest, best prospects first when you enter a new area, which is what we did with Liza-1, The “world class Liza discovery” of 800 million to 1.4 billion barrels of light crude in 2015 showed that drilling that prospect first was the right call"
So 22 dusters over decades, then the massive Liza strike in Guyana, then more recently two more dusters.
What I found interesting was the drill data analysis:
“The success of Liza-1 helped us to reduce the uncertainty of some of the elements for the broader area. It also helped us reduce the uncertainty for the elements of reservoir, trap, migration and seal in the area close to Liza-1,”
I will admit that I am not a fan of S Potter. He doesn't come across having any interest or empathy for shareholders. The way he presents and interviews & writes the RNS's is like he is beyond reproach. I don't know what his track record is for oil discoveries or production increases of Wells he managed but, we are stuck with him for now so.. One can only stick this in the bottom draw & hope.
RE: NellyB I think the other replies have covered the "duster" terminology. The result is what it is. My opinion doesn't change that. I think the reason they stopped the drill short of TD was because the data was crap & the logging only showed more of the same. I don't believe they have now analysed the data and have found a better drill target which another company wants to farm into. I think the licence will be surrendered; which oil companies do all the time if the oil isn't there in commercial quantities. CERP didn't finish testing all the zones in the Saffron well so let's hope they can open a few zones which can get production to that 2500 figure S Potter keeps mentioning.
Just a consideration. Not commercially viable could mean "Not Commercially viable on its own" We may find reserves allocated to this well with the full analyses, just not enough to develop a field. Excuse my bad memory but I recall a mention of something like 200m bbls being quoted as break even, so if there is 100m then its not commercially viable as a stand alone but as pert of a bigger picture it would be meaningful. Perhaps I am being over optimistic, but hope that next RNS with full analyses will shed light.
NellyB, again, you're another one who doesn't understand the basics. You can drill ANYWHERE in the world and encounter hydrocarbons. Bearing that in mind, if it is not commercially viable then it is a duster. It really is that simple.
Cheap entry? If you also believe anything said on a free forum makes a difference to the SP, I'm sorry but you really are thick. The SP is on its ass because of the recent RNS releases.
NellyB for the removal of any doubt P#1 will be be classed as a 'dry hole' ,now how you want to spin that it's up to you, but it was always deemed to be that.
The fact is it didn't find oil that flowed commercially, but if the data that they get back from it is useful then maybe it might add value to bpc but only if it can increase any hope of a farm in from another company and accept a big reduction in ownership as I don't think bpc can go it alone again.
Over a massive area, 4700 miles 3 million acres. Vast areas to discover, and also fully funded, 2500 bopd is over 5m a year at current oil prices. They're already in talks with a number of potential farm-in major's, so I expect some updates very shortly. There's alot going on at the moment.
I have never read or heard about any company that farmed into a licence after a duster result. Surely #P1 was the best target area to drill in the entire licence acreage. I find it hard to believe that there are companies lining up to Farm In. I accept its completely possible to drill another well within the licence & BPC may find what the 3D Siesmic data says is there, but I am not convinced S Potter is being transparent about it. If #P2 requires $30m to drill & Uruguay also needing similar funds, I could see the pathway if #P1 was commercial. But they won't be able to fund those projects with 400-2500 bopd.