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Fundamentally - if a Major had drilled P#1, they would be encouraged by the results and continue their exploration campaign, be content to invest in the next drills, as the ROI potential is substantial, with much reduced costs for the deeper Jurassic play than GOM - 500m of waters as opposed to 3km, its just the way it is.
They understand that exploration is about feeling the way, using each drill to inform the next until strike. Farm out on strike would have been optimum, but farm out on much better CoS for next drill is not precluded and may even be expected once all data is recalibrated and analysed by BPC, issued to interested parties.
A considerable statement made by BPC is the unsolicited interest post drill result - oil companies they had not talked with previously in the last ten years when they toured cap in hand seeking a partner.
The only reason this could be is due to the drill results being compelling to the industry - and if that is accepted, then farm out may be more likely than the market perceives at this time.
All the $150m of analysis BPC have completed over the years confirm the HC prospectivity.
The independent Competent persons reports supported BPC view of multi billion barrels in the field - geologists and PE from Moyes considered expert view of the structures.
If a commercial strike wasnt achieved in one drill, it is to be expected as was only a 1 in 4 chance, being at the crestal edge of the B Structure, but was the best balance of Geological and technical risk, these risks were managed successfully, a WPS system was established.
Trap, seal, reservoir and source data was confirmed as positive in the structure, with migration yet to be established. Aptian and deeper Jurassic plays in B South and C fold are now the focus area .
Ongoing post drill analysis includes updating all models, recalibrating the 3D seismic - this will be new data issued, will inform Farm out discussions:
"The newly acquired technical data from Perseverance #1 will facilitate valuable updates and refinements to basin modelling, biostratigraphy and geochemistry.
Additionally, data derived from Perseverance #1 provides a modern-day well tie to recalibrate existing 3D mapping of the Aptian intervals untested in closures and structures elsewhere in the licence areas."
Fundamentally, the drill established HC, supported pre drill evaluation studies and CPR to a substantial degree, provides a clear path of analysis towards better mapping where the oil has migrated, proved that drilling in Santaren channel viable, and critically established the :
"deeper Jurassic play that produces oil in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico from an analogous play type (and which is the current focus for several companies actively exploring in the region)."
These are the facts as stated in RNS and CPR and are undeniable.
Trust CPR, RNS position statements and technical study outputs by the company - dont trust agenda driven de-ramping with little supporting evidence of any merit, misconstrued conclusions or outright made up negative spin which seems to dominate the BB at this time with 80% of posts it seems.
Any positive is ignored or denigrated, active searching of data to prove a position as negative on
WPS, historical drills, Jurassic target and GOM benchmarks, the revised CoS, semantic focus of standard exploration risks and so on and on.
There is news coming on multiple fronts, only positive news will move this to the next stage, to short this is very high risk. Is the truth a ramp? It is if inconvenient for the agenda driven.
Dont be mislead, but dont assume all is rosy either, there are serious financial aspects that need a solution, certain activities HAVE to go well this year for the company to survive and prosper.
GLA shareholders