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loving the research Molokai. I second the view on Caribbean Rum served on a beach (watching the sun set)
I don't think that $250m is unrealistic. I was working on £250 - £400m which is greater than the 7x but reflects the overshoot expected, profit taking will eat at that so timing of the profit taking will impact the overshoot. Why higher? because at this stage whilst we are a potential 1 hit wonder if we get black wet at the bottom of the hole our only pay master is the royalty to Govt. My preference all the way has been farm in, I still live in hope of that ahead of first drill but suspect it is more likely now to come in at a higher rate de-risked after the first drill.
I would not be surprised under those conditions to see a return of share holder capital - tax minimised benefit...
Drift to 7p as we get the various news flows we all know about.
Then a small sell off by the weak hearted/ hedges etc.
Followed by 12p pre drill.
The above predicated on no JV..
In we get pre-drill JV, which is my prognosis,we will see 25p again pre results.
All of the above takes increased issuance calulations into account.
GLA.
Circa 11p - consistent with past price levels v shares in issue, notwithstanding that we'll be operationally way more advanced than at any of those previous references.
Most of us have lived through the heady times of BPC, 20p+, and also the very lows. 0.5p.....In 2014 we had circa 1.2billion shares in issue and in a few weeks we'll have circa 2.2billion shares in issue, so we really dont know what to expect. I'm anticipating a rise that will bring our mcap to $250mn...sometime during the drill campaign. This is totally my opinion based on my study of aim wild cat explorers, wishful thinking, tea leaves, greed and an insatiable appetite for caribbean rum... served on a beach...(not Southend beach!)
Come to think of it, Bonum, didn't we go from 0.5p to 7.8p (at least intraday), which is more like x15 ?
Anyway, it all bodes well for the price when (if) we start getting some good news RNSs.
We went from sub 3p to arnd 26p plus I think.....?
The real trade price has been slowly creeping up anyway, as we await more definitive News to underpin said Re-rates.
Brynjon - I like your 7x calculation/observation, and agree that we in different territory.
On the one hand, we're probably closer than ever to a drill, even without a farm-in partner. On the other hand, a farm-in partner would give us greater chance of multi-well.
So, pre-drill, we might be looking at 'only' 3.5x multiple of current sp? Circa 6p?
Historically the major re-rates were around 7 fold. Back in the day with many less shares we went from 3p (my buy in price at the time) and rose to around 21p. So x 7
2018 saw the share price rise from under a penny to around the 7p range. So x 7
Both were without a drill bit under the sea.
Former was on speculation of a tie in as was the second.
We are in a different territory today - yes there is still a little bit of speculation of a tie in (Farm out) but we are going it alone.
Therefore we have nothing to compare today's situation with in the company's history.
We can all get a lift from our own personal speculation, however, the joy may not always be shared - we are a bunch of pessemists and optimists - some have blue sky thinking others may think if you expect the worst you will never be disappointed.
We have seen both sides and both may be correct - we just do not know - so we all have our own thoughts so let us see what the reality is in a few weeks time.
Stay safe all ;>) o(*@*)o
That was me going easy :)
Heard & understood
Have a good day all & lay off the sauce if you’re gonna post ;)
It should re-rate significantly from current levels, even before the drill bit hits TD and the outcome of results thereafter.
Everyone will have different expectations of the magnitude of such a re-rate, albeit given what we potentially have and tendencies of share prices to overshoot (in either direction), I'm certainly looking for it to be a good multiple of the current level.
We shall see soon enough.
here here Bryn and Jim.
regards Fatal and the riceman, Fatal, take a step back from your post, re-read it from a critical persons point of view and consider the way it is worded. You raise some very valid challenges, however, rather than raise them as a direct challenge to the board invite the wisdom and research skills from the board to support a critique.
Riceman, go easy on Fatal, he is a LTH and has some very valid reasons to be critical, even if they are not always supported with or provide reference to the reasons.
I think we are all broad minded enough to accept that the share is still a risk. If it were not then the SP would reflect this and be significantly higher. That said, if, and it is still a big if, but if we get the drill in the ground and hit the mother of all plays then those who have stood over that risk through the years will feel very well rewarded, both financially and emotionally/mentally.
If we drill and find nothing but an empty chamber at least we will still have a pot to relieve ourselves in.
....a 'collective' rather than a singular drama queen ;)
Have a good day all
...is a collective of people scrutinising every possible piece of media available relating to BPC to help us all make a more informed decision on what we do with our money.
That does not mean we should take what is posted on here as gospel, we most certainly shouldn’t, but if the poster has done their job well it shouldn’t be difficult to go away and verify what has been posted or understand the basis of their post.
In this way, with as many eyes as possible, we can be first to any news or better understand what is available.
BPC can rightly be criticised for their past performance and contempt shown to their shareholders but that was in different times, times have now changed and with access to what will be at least US$27m (as stated in Leno publication) we are on a collision course to drill an exploration well within the next 5 months. I challenge anyone to prove to me otherwise as all evidence currently available suggests we are.