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Just prior to the merger BPC had a ~£58m mcap and CERP had a ~17m mcap i.e. a combined mcap of ~£75m
At a SP of 2.22p the merged company now has a mcap of ~£75m
I'd suggest the market has just settled at the correct level i.e. ~2.22p
Star - super input - well researched.
Thank you for your very hard work!
GL MON AMI.
IK
XX
Despite the fall the amount of buying going on is a very positive sign in my eyes.
Red381, You make a good point re schroders. BTW, just as I posted, a delayed SELL trade for 3.5m appeared as I predicted. I believe another one for the same amount is on its way. This spooked retail investors into selling as well.
OK, it's not the end of the world. Trafalgar want to dump 90m shares and Schroders MAY be selling 70m as well. This will cause short term pain, but then it will end and SP will recover. Whoever times when to buy, will make a very large profit.
Starchild
My post first thing this morning was on track. RNS just out...Trafalgar sold 8m more shares yesterday. Furthermore based on the sells approx 7m vs 13m buys today, I believe there are several million shares sold by Trafalgar this morinng with delayed reporting.
in my opinion this is totally daft, unless they have an indemnity from BPC to make up any losses based on the Lind loan replacement.
Starchild
In just 3 days
Monday high 3.20
Currently 2.30
I am new to this board/thread but this stock is looking like a day trader too. I own stocks but its constant yo yo is not good for the blood pressure.
"Useful idiots"... That's the term used by Lenin referring to the Cambridge University Trinity College spies.
(c) when Trafalgar has disposed of its shares, the brakes will come off. (d) this may happened sooner if point 4 above happens.
Another blue sky, jam tomorrow remark from the mergers ace cheer leader.
This is what happens when you get involved with an outfit up to their eyes in debt and who suffers,
I did a quick analysis (not a deep dive) of ‘sells’ on Monday and Tuesday, of 1m or more. Source: https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareTrades.asp?shareprice=BPC&share=Bahamas-Petrol
IMHO it is Trafalgar Management ( re the Lind CERP loan). Reasons:
10-11 August there were a total of 50,000,000 trades with the SP hitting 3.2p Monday.
On Monday morning Trafalgar got 106,466,976 shares (see Friday’s RNS), and sold 5m shares Monday which is why yesterday’s RNS major shareholding disclosure only listed Trafalgar as holding 101,466,976 shares!!!!! This was a major reason the SP did not stay around 3p Monday. On Tuesday, I estimate they sold between 10m-13m more shares in chunks of 1.5m with some exceptions (5m, 2.5m).
Assumptions:
1. Trafalgar are a financial institution and not an investor in oil explorers. They want their loan repaid and not hold BPC shares to spud.
2. I estimate the shares given to Trafalgar for £2.1m + 10% (refer to section 11 of 11/6 merger RNS) meant the 106m shares were valued at c2.4p.
3. Anything more than 2.4p is a bonus for Trafalgar however they are not stupid and will unlikely dump during low trading days or if the SP is below what they got paid for.
4. If a financial institution comes into play from today onward, they may strike a deal via shore-capital (BPC’s broker) to buy these shares in bulk. If not…..
Key takeaway
It is not a good time to sell, as the seller will be competing with Trafalgar’s sells.
It is a GOOD TIME TO BUY (a) because of the artificial situation described above. (b) expected news flow (c) when Trafalgar has disposed of its shares, the brakes will come off. (d) this may happened sooner if point 4 above happens.
IMHO. DYOR
Starchild
xxx