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OK Starchild....but all of that is noise...
What does this mean in potential SP in a years time..please advise.
Willibobs
The RNS is pretty clear - its not commercial but BPC found a working system, they are talking with Majors
If people sold out on drill result then im sorry for them, its personally taken me 3 weeks to fully understand all the nuances (as best I think I can ) and ive come back full circle to the stated position in the RNS - this is still in play, Gneiss fielding Major interest - do you employ an expensive consultant for show when cash strapped? They are doing testing with cash that could have spent on deeper drilling as they had already established a working system, the main goal of the drill.
Tiburn Like you I'm hoping P1 ticked enough boxes to tempt a major or 2. If it did, I don't understand why Potter wouldn't of alluded to this on the RNS? He knew the RNS he was putting out would result in a sell off. Or was this part of yhe plan for whatever reason? There are going to be some seriously miffed ex LTH's if Potter announces a farm in/out and plans for P2 with one or more majors on board. I feel there's something brewing? I just hope you're right Tiburn.
SC
Awesome research
Makes sense - they are into week 3 of drill data analysis now, evaluate the logs, understand API and reconstruct the Geo model - all brand new data.
Stated Mission Aug 2020:
"Perseverance #1 drilling and logging – establish the presence of moveable hydrocarbons"
It wasnt the drill number 1 priority to find 1B barrels as its key success indicator - that would have been great of course - but their target was more conservative, just find a system with movable HC.
It must have been the context of the pre drill discussions with Majors aswell, as they wouldnt expect a commercial strike of 1 b barrels on one drill - but would need to see evidence of a working system.
I look back at justification for the P#1 site in RNS Nov 17th
"This location has been chosen, based upon high resolution 3D seismic data, as the best balance of lowest technical risk, geological conditions and recoverable volumes at the crestal point on the northern segment of the very large B structure"
Notice it was at the crestal point or top edge of the northern edge of the very large B Structure - i.e a field delineation drill, start at edges and work in was always the intent, not go for what they think is the biggest target slap bang in the middle of the B Structure and massive commercial strike as the drill number 1 goal.
This is a long game, BPC expect to manage the exploration campaign, Majors are expected to pay for the next stage. It shows immense confidence in what they have - and is a message sent.
They were balancing lowest tech risk of drilling, local geological conditions (find working HC system) with a commercial volume find, but in this context, commercial volume was third in the priority or balance of the three goals.
Drill result RNS
"The Perseverance #1 well in The Bahamas has encountered hydrocarbons, successfully validated the structural model and the petroleum system, and drilled a majority of the potential reservoirs of interest, thus fulfilling the core technical objectives of the well"
That last "thus fulfilling the core technical objectives of the well"
So if pre drill target and drill result correlate, its no surprise Majors are interested - its their interpretation thats key going forward.
Technical
1. 80m shares were traded yesterday plus 17m on Aquis. c100m total, c330m since the 16/2 RNS.
2. There were 135m new shares issued yesterday to pay suppliers and conserve cash for ex-CERP development. At what price we don’t know. I assume only a few suppliers were involved to lower admin and that the invoices offset was at 0.5p/s. How much 135m overhang (if any) is left, we don’t know.
3. The last trade of the day is closing price and easily manipulated. Below are the last 3. So for £17.50 a MM or DMA trader, lowered the SP by 16%. Some days it works the other way.
16:38:57 0.50 3,500 Sell* 0.50 0.60 17.50
16:36:46 0.60 3,500 Buy* 0.50 0.60 21.00
16:35:16 0.60 4,000 Buy* 0.50 0.60 24.00
4. The closing auction at 16:35 is also easily manipulated. It was 0.562p.
5. Use a 2nd level console for £24/mth. At 20% MM spreads it can make a difference of 5-7% by having real-time data and transaction sizes.
Sentiment and politics
6. The occasional vent is expected and OK, but I believe it is a waste of energy for any (real) shareholder to BOMBARD a BB in anger. It doesn’t help the SP go up nor does it bring forward an RNS. It feeds trolls and BPC haters, while helping short sellers who post here to manipulate this BB further.
7. It is in the interests of PRD for BPC to have a low SP and fail. I base this on what PRD attempted to do during the CERP merger and certain posts on this BB since the 8/2/21 BPC drill result RNS. I say no more. Be fun if they attempt a hostile leveraged bid despite only having a £15m MCap today.
The Percy-1 drill
8. Refer to Aug 2020 presentation slide 9 https://wp-bpcplc-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2020/08/12221803/BPC-Management-Presentation-August-2020.pdf ‘Near-term Milestones: Perseverance #1 drilling and logging – establish the presence of moveable hydrocarbons.’ ….. Now refer to slide 26 bar chart. Note….. ‘US$5m potential incremental SUCCESS CASE logging/sampling’.
9. Now refer to RNS table 1 ….. ‘Drilling Duration: The duration estimated to complete the well is approx 30 -45 days….’ ( Source https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/BPC/drill-rig-contract-signed/14552335 ).
Key points: The intent all along was to drill for 30-45 days and only extended to 60 if commercial quantities had been found. Rather than waste money on an academic exercise, with little financial up-side, BPC has now chosen to spend a few million analysing the results because oil WAS FOUND. Why would BPC waste money doing the Percy-1 autopsy either if they felt there is little or no chance of ever getting a farm-out? Because Percy-1 was NOT a duster and our acreage is worth $$$. Especially because of https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-Sachs-Sees-75-Oil-In-Q3-2021.html
I expect an RNS this week or next on the tech results.
IMHO. DYOR. GLA.
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/