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Harry you were a relative bore before you sold out and many understood your position but to reinvest and still spout the same rubbish - tell us - why did you reinvest - or have you??
How much I make is nothing to do with it and to repeat whilst many share the view over the phrase fully fully funded most have moved on except you made even more of a joke because you bought back in allegedly...
So I suggest itâs you who needs to wake up or do you make it a habit to keep sleep walking into financial situations you clearly donât approve of...
Are you actually human as you come across as a crash test dummy....
Thank goodness for Arry and his aphorisms - owever Arry the original quote ends â no need for tinkers hands â not â thinkersâ but it did stimulate me enough to research an alternative Arry, which i preferred - if ifs and buts were candy and nuts weâd all have a merry Christmas!
Harry, your rantings are simply boring now. Not sure why you are back here but all of your posts are just drivel; and you don't even take the time to correct them.
Harry old boy no one forced you to sell and no one forced you to return so ffs stfu ref the fully fully funded line - we are over it and moved on...
With respect...
Solarfire
Next 3 weeks will determine the road ahead imo
Hold Fast
Egg
Good post, could be the case why they stopped short of TD.
It just doesnt make sense, they got ten years to get this drill, and then dont finish it when they are so close, had the money to prosecute deeper drilling to IceMAx capability down to 5500m?
I do not believe their justification is the complete and only reason:
"Given that the totality of the reservoir sections evaluated to 3,900 metres represented the majority (approximately 70%) of the total estimated prospective volumes, the lack of hydrocarbons in demonstrably commercial volumes led to the decision to TD the well at that point."
Especially as they also say:
"Hydrocarbons were encountered at various horizons...... generally increasing with depth and through the deeper Aptian reservoir column in particular."
So 30% could have been gained = 400m barrels of the original target, when its commercial at 150m barrels at $60/b
The stated aim of the drill was to establish movable HC, a working system - which it achieved, it was always going to be plugged and abandoned -
- because they may not have expected this to be the best spot to produce from -
- because it was at the crestal northern edge of the very large B Stucture, a field delineation drill
But they claimed this drill could derisk the entire structure 80km long - how so if not plum in the middle of a commercial strike of a billion+ barrels?
Heres a thing - they may have suspected the drill wouldnt find commercial scale, they just wanted to know HC was created and migrated, find the extent of the kitchen - where did it go? further south, which they are working on analysing now with all their new data - that new Geo model is going to be very valuable for a Major to review in time.
Is a high risk strategy if true, but maybe makes sense to Majors, if your convinced the oil is there you go about it systematically, prove the working system then build up the volume and best production sites by further drilling.
They did give us a steer on this pre drill :
"This location has been chosen, based upon high resolution 3D seismic data, as the best balance of lowest technical risk, geological conditions and recoverable volumes at the crestal point on the northern segment of the very large B structure. "
So not the biggest potential area of oil as priority 1 - something that would not be understood, as is this drill result now, which in BPC view is a technical success and as they say:
"In particular, BPC considers that the results from Perseverance #1 may provide a strong technical basis for renewed farm-in discussions"
Thats not spin, it has substance.
The BPC strategy in all respects is about impressing a Major enough to invest, retail were just a means to an end to get this first drill, but to move forward and monetise this they need a farm in - all roads lead there.
Egg - " just a thought but could the drill have appeared to everyone to stop short and not have found anything commercial on purpose maybe driven by strategy when negotiating a farm in / out?"
Is trashing the SP part of that strategy?
In addition if a major is involved could they have made it part of the Farm in/out to stop short so as to give them some form of exclusivity???
Sounds mad but I guess nothing can be ruled out...
I wonder too if the government had some input....
All in all my thoughts remain unchanged that the results will paint a much different picture to what appeared to be disastrous RNS....
Tiburn - just a thought but could the drill have appeared to everyone to stop short and not have found anything commercial on purpose maybe driven by strategy when negotiating a farm in / out?
The info from P1 would hold all the data needed for these negotiations to take place and perhaps being classified as none commercial would take a little heat out of the controversial drill with the tree huggers... plus with no commercial values to disclose keeps the jewels hidden for a later reveal and could in theory help with the tease???
Just a theory but had P1 found commercial oil what could the negatives have been other than the well would still have been plugged and abandoned?
Solarfire - you and me both. I very nearly pulled the plug as we approached the first spud date, pre virus, pre CERP(voted against) and I would have made a tidy profit with a view to diving back in when the results were announced or as things turned out , staying out. Anyway I am still in and will hold until the end of this year,
Agreed Findme, many wells to be drilled this year and there is a financial plan. I have been a shareholder since November 2010 and I was against the merger. I was wrong about that clearly. New news updates within the next couple of weeks IMO.
Solarfire - The potential good news is not in the Bahamas as per the information we have at present. I too am holding.
Tilburn, you have made a lot of decent posts during this last week or so. Despite the severe disappointment of the P1 result, it is true to say that there is cause for optimism moving forward. The last RNS of 16th February details a lot and it's worth re-reading a few times to realise that we aren't toast yet. A lot of drilling activity planned this year and beyond. BPC has always been a high risk share to hold, more-so leading up to the drill. It will continue to be that way through the coming months, but since I am still holding all my shares, I am intending to go along with the management and hold. GLA genuine holders.
Pedro
Thatâs the new low today
Far as I know itâs not a new low , SP is been here after the duster basically now is retesting And it will bounce up And when it breaks 0.70 you can call it double bottom strong buy
Great stuff Tiburn, love the optimism. Can I ask, how much are you down on your BPC / CERP investment ?
Is it gonna make you happy if you know
P::ck
Agree Tiburn
Glide
All agreed
They dont care about the current SP, or retail support for further funding as we have been squeezed dry and all credibility has gone. They havnt told us what they are doing in real terms , never have - that $72m funding target only known once gained/sourced a case in point as they knew we wouldnt have supported that at the start. Its what they had to do to enable them to drill P#1 and they did it against all odds.
BPC play a very close game with their information (its all they have to sell) and are masters by now at spin, but it is spin with substance.
Think on why you invested in the first place
For me it was the scale, B structure: >2 bnbbl STOIIP up to 28 bnbbl as confirmed by Moyes CPR - not just a BPC view. The seismic also looks awesome, especially in B South.
Those reasons remain
This one drill doesn't disprove all the prospect zones, could aid in better establishing the next drill - does this sound like a duster to you?
"Hydrocarbons were encountered at various horizons, indicated by elevated gas chromatography readings detected continually during drilling, generally increasing with depth and through the deeper Aptian reservoir column in particular. Oil was identified from high oil saturation values from logs in a number of reservoir sections thus verifying the existence of a working Lower Cretaceous petroleum system and reservoir quality sequences in the Aptian."
@Tiburn
I hate to come across as talking down this share, cos I havenât sold, I am still invested, big for me. I am hoping to get a bit more back than 0.6. For sure.
But good grief surely Potter must understand that not all investors will be able to see something positive in the last 2 RNS.
I think itâs an obscure mash of â we havenât but might have, so thatâs alright then, everyone, meanwhile lets raise some more cashâ
Naively maybe, but I think BPC could make a better, clearer statement of what they found and why they stopped short of TD.
I can read a statement and see good or bad if it is written ambiguously, we shouldnât have to take 3 weeks to see nuances in an RNS. It should be bullet points. Then people wouldnât have run out of confusion.
Fingers crossed the additional data evaluation gives us something more to improve confidence.
ATB
Pedro
Thatâs the new low today
Find me
If BPC had said;
"Perverance 1 is non commercial, no working petroleum system was found, BPC will focus on Trinidad short term whilst we re assess the overall stratetgy"
Then I would have accepted the drill as a duster and would hope that CERP could allow for another drill in due course, hope would be low however unless some clarity gained on funding and some material actions to drill in Trinidad and Suriname.
But it didnt say that, it was pretty upbeat overall. The market however just saw "non commercial " and ran for the hills - sold to early imo
The drill data analysis will be extremely interesting.
There is no doubt that we are much lower than we should be, but that's just the natural overreaction of people and their short term fears. But it will recover, we've been here before but the landscape has definitely changed now.
I think Simon Potter does need to produce something very good for the next RNS to regain shareholders' faith in him. Hopefully what he said in the drill RNS was accurate and he's not just glossing over failure. If the data turns out good and a major comes along then BPC will indeed be transformed (as will the region). What did the drill actually discover? And how good is Simon Potter at political manoeuvres?
Petro - If there is anything good to come out of the P1 drill in the shortish term then the whole operation including the analysis of the results should have been kept "tight hole" then maybe the SP would not now be lower than ditch dirt.
I have worked on exploration drilling where this was the case.
Tiburn - Are you trying to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear??
Glide
Fair question
Because the entire BPC acreage is not proven as non commercial by this one drill
what the drill has proven:
"The Perseverance #1 well in The Bahamas has encountered hydrocarbons, successfully validated the structural model and the petroleum system, and drilled a majority of the potential reservoirs of interest, thus fulfilling the core technical objectives of the well"
The net conclusion of which is this:
"The validation of a competent seal, good reservoir quality, charge and the presence of oil points to significant hydrocarbon potential remaining in various independent, untested play systems and structures within BPC's extensive acreage"
which means this:
" The Company will proceed to undertake a comprehensive evaluation of the data derived from the well, as we believe the results provide a sound technical basis for renewed farm-in discussions."
@Tiburn
"The RNS is pretty clear - its not commercial but BPC found a working system, they are talking with Majors"
Why would a Major want an interest in a non-Commercial system ? Honest question from a Non-oiler