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Brent is down ahead of API report at 45.50 no big deal. My stop loss is at 3.00. Look at Exxon today , one day before ex-div +7% up. Trust your judgement, profit is profit. GLA.
i think its more likely to go to that sort of level aswell but on a negative note, in case it continues to bounce off circa 309p, this is on a line with 4 daily highs/lows over past months, and is parallel to a line of 4 of the lowest daily lows currently at 270p, im giving thought to looking to possibly sell some/all temporarily soon, i own tens of thousands of them, not on margin nor with any stop losses, technically its still bouncing down from the steep downwards resistance line at around 309p, its not that i think it will reach 270p, but if it doesnt go up through that resistance line, i wonder if it might retrace back to 270p, the sp500 is pretty much at historic highs, it may well continue to go higher, if theres the big stimulus you mention, (the us election is coming), perhaps probably, perhaps much higher, but its possible it may retrace, its just moved up the same number of points approx in third 5 wave up so far compared o the second 5 wave up from mid may for 3 weeks, it then retraced 50% of that rise, im guessing the point where sp500 and shares in general enter abc down is more related to stimulus, i saw some inflation data of one country today at well over expectation, high inflation expectations could cause central bank policy makers to limit easing, in the end the fed is a private institution and it holds debt not shares, it would have better assets if there isnt lots of inflation, i suspect future inflation could halt the easing and limit share prices, but I suspect youre right that a big stimulus is coming and investments will rise more towards November.
I will exit around 313/314 as well, that would be a 2.5K profit, not bad for a week of work :). Said that we could see new high, Exxon and Chevron are already 7% up, oil is up because of the week dollar, expected third draw this week, ex-div in a couple of days, potential 2T dollars stimulus . You could have a stop loss at 3.10 when we pass 312 and see where it goes, but I think I will cash in and enjoy a nice steak with the government 10 pounds off. Not sure if we will see 3.13 today or tomorrow. GLA.
ive had a look at chart for recent highs and low turns and I suspect price is presently in a slightly downwards sloping channel from 285 to 313, I might sell today hopefully temporarily if it touches 313, my guess is it may bounce off this. This is roughly the range that ceders mentioned also, he may have seen this channel, or its roughly the high and low of past week or so.
Should have a good chance to break up 320p given that FTSE might reach 6300 again this time, even better, 6500
5 waves and abc relate to sp500 not bp charts to avoid any confusion
if it passes 309 approx, it looks like the next upwards sloping resistance may be presently around 319p though over time this line is sloping higher, this used to be a support line weeks ago in that lots of daily ranges sit on the line, I think ceders 320p upper estimate while oil is not above 45 may well be pretty likely, but twice it has spiked up to the top of the wide channel in past months since the crash, and it isn't impossible it could spike at 383p at the top of that channel, even iag, easyjet and carnival are all rallying presently, I suspect there will by US stimulus until the election around November, and im guessing this present likely third 5 wave move up could be at least half way through, so guessing bp may retrace several percent with the third abc retracement once it finally ends sometime between now and November I would guess.
hi lenin, no one knows if it will go up or down but there are algorythms that trading computers use which can indicate where price may pivot, if goes up or down, these often appear on lines at same gradient to existing support/resistance lines relative to a previous pivot point, interesting this morning the 309p is at the resistance of the steep downward channel top since early june. I think what ceders has said could well be roughly indicative, the channels arent totally horizontal though.
Hi Lenin , title is misleading, we are just commenting on short term pricing. Pricing range seems to have changed from 2.90/3.20 to 2.85/3.15 after earnings, still a very profitable trading range with reasonable risk.My view is this stock will not stick above 3.20 until OIl price is firmly above $45 which may not happen until Q1 next year.
So in simple English you are saying the B P share price could either head towards 350 pence or as low as 239 pence ...Or to put it even more simply you are saying it could go up or down from its current share price .....Err ..I am not sure if the expert forecast you make using your charts and algorithm makes anyone wiser .!!! You might as well throw a coin in the air and say heads the B P S P will go up or Tails the B P S P will go down !!!!!!!!......
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hope so. computer algorythms have a role in price moves but it looks like the low of today is exactly on line parallel to that between march and early aug lows but deviated by that from the low of session the day before the march lows relative to the march low, i wonder if this may act as support, given stimulus info may be released in future, or if may even touch the fractionally lower level at around 285 which exactly corresponds to deviation from this line of the 3 daily lows (2 from march and 1 from Aug) that are the closest closes to the lows of those two months. Interestingly moving this slightly upward moving channel up from lows gives a present range of 286 to 330, and resistance of this intersects with 7 daily highs/lows so may even act as a future channel top, if it doesnt continue to fall lower. sorry i cant post a pic of this, a pic is worth a thousand words. There is a historic support line that became resistance that is exactly the same gradient between lows of march and aug, so this must be how the algorythms moved to the aug low. If Aug low doesnt hold, the large channel of past months may suggest a move to 239
Good US job report, we are going up.
Market is pricing in bad US July job report, if better than expected we should have a rebound today.
yes, i think you could be right, its closed pretty much exactly at the 296 support, hopefully it moves up soon, it should do in the long term i would have thought, its easy to buy and hold for pension but with this much volatility, selling tens of thousands of shares and buying back a few pence cheaper a day or two later has a big effect. Its one of those companies that everything can go wrong with an extreme event, had position on 7500 shares back with the macondo blowout, that was volatile, but i suspect the climate change litigation could pose a bigger problem going forward than this type of event reoccurring, hopefully this will be rejected in courts, there is already a lot of tax on fuels which benefits many, theres a lot of evidence that increased co2 is helping plant and crop growth, and no definite proven link between co2 and warming as far as i can see, im guessing oil and gas will be extracted for decades until unviable, though i wonder if a biden gov may try to stop some production & speed up renewables quicker than the market wants to move....eu are looking at bank restrictions
Glad I did not buy yesterday, 2.95 here you go,... the market has tested the high now the low, it is normal behaviour. The stock needs to go lower in order to pass 3.15.
I think you could be right, guessing spiked over 300p as many tried to buy after less than expected div cut announcement, 1/4 times rdsb is only 285p, I wonder if more downside ahead, hopefully not, 296 hasn't held intraday, 2 days ago us court gave more credence to litigation over climate change, some say all the actions could exceed market caps of all majors combined.
Think this did well to hold above 300p yesterday.
The market in general seemed positive to the results, but the wider mainstream media were happy enough to splash their typically sensationalist headlines to point all the bad, but with a small footnote about the divi yield still being enticing for investors.
Expecrted a drift back under 300p today and now the news is all out in the open, feel this will most likely settle in a range around this level in the short term, following poo and exchange rate movements until any additional news lands.
has just reached 296, if it doesn't now go up from here, guessing it could be potentially heading to 275 though wouldn't have thought so. before covid, ratio of rdsb to bp was 4.5, its now just under 4, rdsb div cut of 66% dropped rdsb price from 1450 to 1200 or approx. 17%, and pulled bp down 10%, to a ratio of 4, bp has cut div by 3/4 of cut of rdsb, guessing ratio of rdsb to bp share price shouldn't perhaps be below 4, though ive heard bp cost of production breakeven can be lower.
and if it does bounce up from 296 today, guessing it may go up to top of upwards sloping channel from march lows presently 275-320 approx., in coming days if sp500 doesn't roll over in an abc in coming days. im guessing effect of stimulus may be muted and already priced in as alleviation against all the negatives of economy being partly closed down. guessing will take something very positive to move to 383 at top of wide months old channel again, has topped twice so far
had a closer look, the lower of the two resistance lines was 315, so it looks like it bounced down off that, this is still since early june in a very downward sloping wide channel presently 240-315 in width, it hit the top yesterday, it may move up out of this soon back into the almost flat slightly upward wide channel 296-383 width, im guessing support is 296 presently, though if the sp500 peaks soon, it looks like it may be well through its third set of 5 wave up from march lows, and might even retrace at least 200 points in abc wave, like it has for the past 2 sets of abc waves, this could pull it below 296 again. Guessing a stimulus plan could pull up oil price and market in general though, if it goes ahead in near future. Do wonder if all the climate related litigation against oil firms being planned could have downward pressure on oil and gas shares also.
looks like there are a couple of resistance lines , one sloping up and one sloping down presently intersecting at around 320p, wonder if it will bounce. Im guessing bp and rdsb are probably likely to gain quite a bit over years to come, oil prices usually rise for periods, but there are some concerns, one is the drive for litigation against oil companies in courts globally for literally trillions, more than all of their market caps, this is partly why govs are declaring climate emergencies, I personally don't think there is a proven link between co2 and warming, though I think there should be a massive tree and plant growing plan globally if were burning old buried plant matter, and also the move to renewables, I wonder if this could outpace the population growth globally, I would have thought bp and shell would be better placed for geothermal rather than hydrogen, I wonder if hydrogen will turn out not to be commercially viable. theres also a glut of shale that can be brought on line in future which could keep oil price limited will below the $100 mark. I think the div advantage fpr bp over rdsb helps raise price but there are I think other things that can lead to a higher yield for bp going forward. I don't know if you've researched the litigation climate change concerns going on, ive got a 4:1 ratio of large holding bp:rdsb. I may sell at 320p and try to buy at a bit of a discount as this may be a resistance level. I also wonder if sp500 is 2% from a top. Also biden winning is going to reduce support for oil and gas suppliers I would have thought, though this may be increased taxes, less subsidies or it may reduce supply and raise prices. Interesting to see what happens.
At 350p the yield will be a minimum of 4.6%, which is still more than RDSB. Discount can no longer be justified.
BP has more proportionately more exposure to oil rather than gas as compared to say RDSB so recovering oil price should translate directly into higher cash flow in H2.
Green strategy should pull in "ethical" funds. We might become the darling of the Greta fans and be rewarded with a sector premium (for a while).
Best
Happy