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REDDINGTONR,
I'm all in, having backed my views with my cash. Despite the disappointment, I'm focused on long-term. I’m also reminded of an oft-quoted comment by market trader & top economist Maynard Keynes going back a 100 years ago. Quote: “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
Little has changed since then. We see periods when sentiment drives markets more than reason. When emotions like fear dominates, many stocks get badly oversold. When euphoria takes over, many stocks get overbought.
But over time, both extremes see sharp corrections. I remain confident of a VG profit here within a personally acceptable timescale, ie. well into 2021 or even 2022. - GL.
Keep em coming, I thought I got a steal at 198, but downward pressure appears relentless, not wishing any trouble, but an event leading to supply shortage would be helpful just now when it’s knees with OK results.
A final buy from me at 198.56 using last Friday’s profits on BARC. This reduces my average to 226.
Some will say more “dumb money". Maybe? But these are not for short-term trading motives but a premeditated longer-term hold.
If I reduce the final average even lower via DRIP adds before meaningful recovery probably in 2021, even better.
But as ever, to each their own. - GLA.
Also just took some at 201.30..last money I have for this is at 1.75 but really hope it doesnt get there and the same I've set up dividends to re invest
Made a smaller add today at 201.58. Same reasoning as originally & patently braced for a long-term hold.
As mentioned earlier, will also DRIP feed from dividends for as long as BP’s SP is below by original mistimed buy at 233.33. Hopefully I can bring down my average to well below 220.
Posted here to keep any buys within the same thread. - GLA.
NewKOTB,
Thanks. Valid points. Indeed it's diverse & becoming increasingly so. Whatever happens over the next few weeks isn't nearly as important as this stock's longer-term potential for when global economic forecasts start to improve again. As they will do eventually. Just need to ride things out. - Regards.
Apologies, I should have said Energy demand will be higher. Thanks for the reminder.
Why does everyone keep going on about Oil ..... BP business model is so diverse that in fact the volatile nature of commod's will aid BP not hinder imo.
Sentiment is driving the SP's across the board, all fueled by the MM. They know this is their last chance to create fear and drop the markets. Once US elections (regardless of the winner imo), Brexit are done and more importantly a vaccine is available watch the indexes power on.
Easy return to +380p by Q2 2021 ....
aimo
The fact is, the World still needs Oil and Gas and will for the next 10-15 years.
BP like every company effected by travel is taking a battering, until people start using airplanes, cars etc again as part of their work/social life the share price will take a dive. It is all supply and demand.
I have topped up massively in BP and will continue to do so if this decline continues, maybe in 5 years time I will cash out all my BP Holdings but until then batten down the hatches and wait.
GLALTH
Hi Marfthew & IceyDicey,
Thanks to both. Broadly agree. I know "support" at 233+ was meant rather than "resistance". Easy to mix them when posting quickly without an edit button.
It's a hard call for when the global economy fully recovers & with it demand for oil. But eventually we can expect a return to growth as evident from longer-term historic cycles.
I think it's also fair to say that while some Western economies are indeed going more green, the largest growing economies, like India, China, Vietnam, et al, will still see oil in huge demand. That'll continue for years yet.
No doubt we'll see further cuts in oil production too if it's needed to support prices if they drop too low. Shale production also recently falling sharply back in the US . No longer as profitable.
So all in all, I think whilst a 500 target seems academic & far from 100% certain, from a longer-term view probably not all that far-fetched. - ATB to both!
Good buy price but don’t think the previous price of 5.00 plus is relevant. The business has changed a lot and will change more with the switch to, “green energy”. The previous highs we have seen were based on the oil demand being stable and growing. With oil being phased out it’s hard to know how much demand we will see and for how long and also how long our transition to green will take. For sure we will spend a lot of money changing the infrastructure and gearing for the new direction. Many shareholders here are institutions and
Such/pension funds etc who saw BP as reliable and safe for recurring dividends etc. With the direction of the company And more importantly timescales to green now being unknown this isn’t the safe banker it once was. Profit to be had for sure, but suspect more for trading then long term. I still think this will go lower and will top up once/if it does.
I’ve bought at 2.33 also today. Strong resistance there, it’s oversold on the dailies and I’m expecting a jump up in the next week or so to the 20dma which seems to keep happening every time it hits the bottom of the downward trend channel. I will probably get out at that stage as I’m trading the channel right now. But long term anything around this price is a good buy
Bought at 233.33 about an hour ago, mindful that its previous long-term closing low was 233.70 on 18th March after the initial sell-off. It's gone lower after I bought but no-one buys the exact low. But I wanted to switch funds from a UK-specific stock into a global one. It'd been on my mind a while.
Used funds from taking a huge loss on LLOY as, whilst nothing is 100% certain, rising risks of a No Deal Brexit & possible negative interest rates will hurt recovery throughout that sector. Also, recent loss of 26+ L/T support there a big disappointment.
BP also won't recover quickly. However, as the global economy eventually recovers, so will this. It was over 500 earlier this year & over 550 over a year ago. So as a longer-term hold, ie. well beyond 2020, I think a target closer to at least 500 seems doable. - GLA.