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hi nss22, its in that trend presently, if it stays in that trend and reached 346 mon 17th, i'll probably sell everything and try to buy back 5% or more cheaper a few day later, the trend its in is pointing to a pivot intersection of a downwards support/ resistance and an upwards resistance, 346p in a week, trend is a friend until it comes to an end, it may not get there by then
I want to be the first to admit I dont understand any of what you say but well done you it looks like great analysis and i am sure the other chartist will jump in later.
So just the simple bit for me please.........
"The bottom of that channel was 313 on friday, 317 on coming mon, 321 tue, 325 wed, 329 thu, 333 fri, 337 next mon with 9p height of channel might give 346 pivot touch, but something would likely have to get brent to $73 approx, maybe the dollar will go above 1.4 as some are suggesting or something else...
Are you saying this is where you expect the price to hit on these days ?.
Please keep your reply simple your dealing with an idiot....
and the last thing that might be worth mentioning in terms of timing is that the gold price dips steeply for 2 weeks 19 months before aug 2021, then rises for 4.5 months, so im guessing a move to above 400 by august with a dip later in august for 2 weeks followed by further rise in bp for 4.5 months might take towards the goldman sachs price target of 470p, brent approx $100
the 310 you mentioned may be the steep rise from past few days, the bottom of that channel was 313 on friday, 317 on coming mon, 321 tue, 325 wed, 329 thu, 333 fri, 337 next mon with 9p height of channel might give 346 pivot touch, but something would likely have to get brent to $73 approx, maybe the dollar will go above 1.4 as some are suggesting or something else.
ceders, im not seeing 310 as a support from nov low, from the lows of nov2020, theres a floor of 303 if 3 lower sessions from 26/4 are taken out, but i think the relevant channel up from lows is through 25/11/20 and 25/3/21 as tops of wave 1 and 5, wave 3 is higher than this as often happens, drawing the channel up from the lows in nov 2020 this puts the floor at 278 currently which is why im a little concerned this might be a wave B rather than minor wave 1 of major wave 3. The gold price leads oil by 19 months, ive tried to use this to work out timing of whether this is a wave 1 of major 3 or wave b, 19th feb 19 to 28th may 19 gold fell before, lowest brent price was $36 on 01/11/20 lowest bp price was 189p on 28/10/20. This drop in gold price is from 4th sept 19 to 2nd dec 19, 6 months 5 days later, so would expect to see bottom in brent and bp around 4th May 2021. The trends for oil are much steeper upwards than last time, and bp price is positive rather than negative slope after nov lows, brent seems to now be in a channel since 21/3/21 which looks like wave 5 up, i had originally counted 3 sets of 5 waves up to march high in brent, but the second one connects to the first one and doesnt have a deep corrective wave pattern, so im guessing wave 5 for brent from lows started 21/3/21, if there have already been 3 sets of 5 waves up for brent, we could be facing a c wave in brent which would pull bp down heavily, theres one elliot wave analyst talking about imminent sub $50 brent from lower wti, but i think this looks like start of wave 5, if its a wave c coming, those long will have to wait a few months for recovery, those on margin might get burned, but i think its start of wave 5 in brent, and start of a second new set of 5 waves up for bp, if im wrong, well soon know. If it is a wave c, im guessing the downside might reach the bottm of that channel i mentioned at 278 presently, might meet it after decline of around 80% of wave a somewhere around 290, the difficult thing is that it looks like there has been an abc correction from 5 waves up in bp, but the abc could be an a wave, and we could be in a b wave, but i still think its far more likely were in a wave 1 of major wave 3 up, it looks like brent might have 4 months to run, this might take it to 90ish, and another 3 months of bp rising would take it above 400p, it looks like bp is roughly $brent *5 -25 in pence, so $90 could be 425p. Interestingly the shallow channel up from march 2020 lows intersects top of steep channel up from nov 2020 at around this 425p figure around the time that brent could be coming to end of wave 5, bp would possibly be ending wave 5 then. will see if bp goes to one of the pivots of 346 or 350 in coming week or 3 weeks respectiviely, this may be top of wave 1 of major wave 3. There would easily be time for waves 3 and 5 of major wave 3 and another set of 5 waves for major wave 5.
incredibly your 262 does sit on the lower trend line at the date you mentioned if through the lowest points, i agree its unlikely to go there any time soon, its imfossilble that im fossilised, im very much alive, my username reflects i dont fit in with the current idea that CO2 is necessarily a bad thing, its food for all the plants and crops. Theres a rumour going around that many users are the same person working in a foreign call centre, several believe this, have a nice weekend
Fossilised, iv never shorted in my life, although I currently have zero exposure to any stocks. With regards to my 262 prediction, this was just a random number that I predicted on a random date. In fact I don't believe it will go that low. If however the sp reaches 295 I'll be back in
youve taken the absolute lowest points, ive drawn support of primary recovery channel from march 2020 lows slightly more vertical as goes through more points, also ties with the 4/2/20 and 6/9/20 highs, i think this is the recovery channel from the lows, guessing the steeper channel rising from the lower october lows may overlap that channel and when the tops of each meet, i suspect that will be a major temporary top, would be over 400p in coming months if so. 2.32pm...... he he, sounds far fetched i know but because the resistance and support lines cross it can give an approximate date of direction change, give or take a day or so and the actual top in advance. 262 so quickly is extremely unlikely as steeper than even the shorter moves recently, i mentioned the two possible 346 and 350 pivots as actually heading in that direction presently
love your userid, guessing this is from shorting to 262 often
bp still in channel after close but hitting a minor resistance line down from pre covid data, last three days tops roughly tracing this, might be heading for 350 pivot 25th may rather than 346 on 17th may, if doesnt roll over into a wave c down for some days
Long term Bp its only up from here but 2021 is a rollercoaster and good for short term trading , good not fantastic, I've being over to Dark and up 5% today from 3.21 trade. My position is I've 4 decades of trading in front of me. Yet to get a bloody nose over time and trading is exciting and calculated. Dyor imo