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There will inevitably be a recession and a period worse than 2018, everything is pretty much at a standstill. The hundreds of billions being poured into helping people and businesses now during this pandemic will also unbalance the books and will need recouping over time.
I don't mind paying extra in the future to be able to restore parity due to what's happening now as long as its not a massive hit in one go to people's earnings.
Think he indicated the self employed would need to do their bit as well for what's being done to help them now..
But I think its everyone who will have to play their part in some way in the future to restore parity to the finances.. As always some will loathe the idea of taxes going up in some way but how else can the spending be recouped
Hi AKA. Back in 2008 VAT went to 20% on a "temp" basis, i see VAT being raised to 25% min shortly, scary or what. ATB Speedy
I wasn't implying that the world economy wont recover, as I said IMO, I think we're looking at a six monther.
The point I was trying to make was that it's going take a huge amount of world economy re-alignment with similar timing of emerging from the other end by other nations, I just cant see the oilers having long term impact - the most effective result would be the production of a vaccine and attack it from the front line back.
I agree there will be upsides to positions if played correctly during this time of volatility but a while to be anywhere close to normality.
What is your opinion on global recession at the back end of this episode and what do you think Mr Sunak was implying when he said that following the pandemic, we would then need to stand together as one nation to all help to "tidy up" the position? VAT, Income tax, NI etc, etc.
Take care
So the whole 1.3 billion of them will be sitting on their ar*ses with no money or work to go to or a means to put petrol in their cars or use public transport and the whole of their economy at a standstill without any hope of recovery?
Is that the conclusion after several months of lockdown and an no apparent furlough scheme in place..
They will recover in time like other nations.. Eventually..
Just wondering if China operated a reasonable furlough scheme that paid the workers during cessation of production - no, didn't think so. So what money will they have to utilise transport and the overall economy. There is also the case of if they start up production, who are they going to export it to.
Being realistic, IMO, C19 will peak and start to fall as the media predicts but if we all come out of our bunkers on the downward slope, it'll go straight back up again - the cycle starts again, so I think we're in for at least a six monther.
A final point, when the powers that be do their power point presentation and show the cases "reported" in China a South Korea, are we seriously believing this and with lack of testing, how many world wide cases are there really?
One of the biggest oil consumers China is slowly easing restrictions and coming out of lockdown and will ahead of others start to use more and more transport, and hopefully others follow suit once their own situation eases over the coming months.. BP has always relied on the price per barrel being high so in anticipation of deal which is how the market initially reacts to these things it will jump i hope and if it fails them tanks..
I am not in for long term, just will be aelling on the uptick and then that's me done..
Hoping for the best Monday.. I am about only a couple pennies down so not at a huge loss or don't have a great deal invested as am not one of the big players here but few hundred always comes in handy.. Profits a profit at the end of the day.. Only if banked of course
Indeed, there is always the possibility of a NO DEAL agreement between OPEC and the major oil players. I believe that as the coronavirus situation escalates and there is a continued lack of demand for oil due to a global lockdown. Economies will also be affected and a worldwide recession is just around the corner, as such I think that in the coming months BP will go down to around 300p a share. That is of course my own personal belief based on my 15+ years of investing experiences and personal opinion. Have always watched and read posts on the sidelines in LSE. However, I see this as a once in a lifetime opportunity. Savvy investors should be using their incomes, salaries to continually top up in the stock markets. Over a longer term span e.g. 5 years. A lot of these shares will see 50+% increases in capital growth with solid annual dividends too. GLA and as always DYOR! That is my 2 cents.
Russia being on board is obviously a major plus, making Saudi Arabia play ball won't be that difficult when push comes to shove because of the US's political influence over the country. The challenge remains bringing the US companies on board, which is a critical element for Russia, if that goes well it will be a massive plus. The share price should see some upside on Monday but i don't expect anything significant until a formal announcement of an agreement, after all there still remains the risk of no deal being agreed, which would obviously have a detrimental impact on the share price.
Yes they will... Second that :-).. Hoping for a jump Monday too.. Now that Russia are on board Saudis will play ball too.. Let's hope so after a painful week and I can bail out of here
Oh yes they will
Saudis wont...
Russian president Vladimir Putin has said that global oil output cuts of around 10m barrels per day is possible, but only if all major crude producers join in the reduction effort.
Oil prices have fallen by around half due to the collapse in demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic, sparking calls for cuts to supply.
“According to preliminary estimates, I think that we can talk about a reduction in the volume of about 10m barrels per day, a little less, maybe a little more,” Mr Putin said on Friday at a meeting with Russian government officials and executives from oil companies.
“Of course, all this must be done in a partnership. And I believe that when I talk about partnerships, everyone, including our partners, understands that we can talk about a reduction from the level of production that prevailed before the crisis. That is, we are talking about the level of production in the first quarter of this year,” he added.
His comments come a day after US President Donald Trump said that cuts of 10-15m barrels would be possible, and that he had brokered a deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia to achieve it. Questions remain over whether US companies would participate in a co-ordinated cut.
“You know that we are in close contact with our partners in Saudi Arabia. I recently had a conversation with the President of the United States of America. We are all worried about the current situation, everyone is interested in joint and, I want to emphasise this, co-ordinated actions to ensure long-term market stability,” Mr Putin said.
“In this regard, I want to emphasise: Russia considers it necessary to combine efforts,” he added. “We are ready for agreements with partners and within the framework of the Opec+ mechanism,” he said, referring to a deal between Opec and Moscow that broke down last month.
“And we are ready for co-operation with the United States of America on this issue. I believe that it is necessary to combine efforts in order to balance the market and reduce production as a result of these co-ordinated efforts.”