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Hi Mojo
I hope you and yours remain safe and well too. Great reply and one that I can not argue with. Certainly on personal/ business debt. Over a decade of historically low interest rates have been seen as the norm and used for long term calculations when buying a property. It will not take too much of a move back to long term averages to end many property owners dreams, especially as you rightly state, the over leveraged.
It will be an interesting 2022.
Have a great weekend Mojo
Mark
Hi Mark hope you’re well, I think the CCP will do domestic bailouts but, foreign bond holders are going to be left holding the bags. Also if the sum of money in question $260 mil is such a small amount and they’re going to struggle to pay I worry when the bond repayments are due q1 of next year that alone is in the 2-3 billion range.
In a lot of ways this can’t go on forever infinite amount of money printing has caused a big headache globally with inflation now the fed isn’t willing to extend their bond buying program and most central banks follow the fed. Something will give eventually and higher rates maybe the only answer the problem is though how many of us are over leveraged on variable rate loans or on short term fixed rates 2 years. These are the people/ businesses that will be impacted most by an evergrande collapse. Covid caused a massive transfer in wealth as did 08 .
I fear more of the same for 2022 there will be a massive shift in peoples net worth and the disparity between rich and poor will be ever clearer. There will be no more middle class.
Mojo. Maybe, it would not be in the interest of the CCP to allow a financial meltdown. They have the ability to manage/assist Evergrande debt. Its huge but not in comparison to the Chinese wealth fund
FT Article
Evergrande summoned by Chinese officials after warning on debt demand
Eleanor Olcott
Real estate group Evergrande has been summoned by Chinese government officials after disclosing that it could not guarantee that it had sufficient funds to meet its debt requirements.
In a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange on Friday, the world’s most indebted property developer said that it could “not guarantee that the Group will have sufficient funds to continue to perform its financial obligations”, citing liquidity conditions.
Chair of the group, Hui Ka Yan, said that Evergrande had received a demand for a payment of around $260m, adding that if it could not meet these obligations, its creditors could demand a faster repayment of its debts.
The developer has been struggling to raise funds to meet its over $300bn in liabilities. Evergrande has missed several interest payments on offshore bonds but has not formally defaulted because it met its obligations before the end of a 30-day grace period.
At a press conference on Friday evening, the People’s Bank of China lambasted the group’s “poor management”, adding that Evergrande’s woes would not impact market stability. The message was supported by the country’s stock market regulator, who told reporters that risks coming from the property group were controllable.
Guangdong local government, which summoned the company, announced that it had reached an agreement with Evergrande to dispatch a team to help resolve its problems but did not provide any details of the kind of help it would be giving the embattled property group.
Thankyou
One of my fav scenes when it comes to market movies great performance from Jeremy Irons https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UOYi4NzxlhE
https://on.ft.com/3pmseXz Here’s a gift link but only good for 3 uses.
Sorry can’t against the regulations unfortunately. Would be breaching FT rules. Gist is Chinese gov has sent in some people to sort the situation as Evergrande board has said they’re unlikely to meet the next payment. It’s a ticking time bomb Lehmans style looks to me like they’re buying time and trying not to cause panic before all the important people have taken out all their exposure once that’s done, it’s time to tell everyone the music has stopped.
Please can you cut and paste
Thankyou
https://www.ft.com/content/502ab22a-45b4-48e0-afc2-c0fb5e6ac58b