We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Same feeling as you I sold the Friday before. The reason being as soon as the press get a sniff of a new lockdown or variant they terrify everybody. I to thought £4 by Xmas.
Well it was only this week I thought we would be looking at £4 Christmas not now but I did take notice off the new strain be announced days before they decided it’s a bad one so I sold all my oil stocks day before crash but didn’t sell my banks oh well.For me air travel is going to take a hit but oil demand destruction for this will be low as they have still never recovered.As long as all other travel and business can carry on OPEC will manage oil supply to keep price stable.This is not going to hit £2 like last time £2.60 entry if everything goes as I think it will.
Second useful link at tabs 3 and 4.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/11/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-19-November-2021-weekly-file.xlsx
Shows exactly where the problem is. Tab 3 allows you to factor the serology hospitalisation and mortality data for those with and without conditions.
Bottom line, they have known for some time that Covid is trivial to most. If it wasn’t, they wouldn’t be happily letting nearly 400,000 young people presently catch it every month.
Well worth a look at the latest serology data for the U.K. anyone with a significant shareholding should read every page of this report and think very carefully of where their portfolio risks lie (good clues about potential policy responses in there).
Bottom line, despite 69% of U.K. population being double jabbed, >99% of the population (17 and over) are seropositive for Covid.
It has fascinating data about the scale of present infection across the U.K., over 170,000 0-17 infected every fortnight. It has hospitalisation data in there too.
So, from the data illustrating the impact of Delta on efficacy, this new variant is going to have to be an absolute Frankenstein monster for it to be considered a major threat.
I can foresee travel bans til Feb though, just to try and keep case rate low. I think if it spreads, there may be requests not to spend time with family/households on Christmas Day.
I’m concerned about The impact of European Covid rates at the mo, Holland, Germany and non Swedish scandis are now having their butchers bill as a result of locking down too much coming back to bite them (compare Sweden’s change in case rate to Denmark’s).
I can’t see global oil demand taking a long term hit. And I think OPEC will maintain current production on weds. A cut would demonstrate panic. Maintaining current production shows that this isn’t something to get worried about yet.
Epedemiologist mate of mine reckons they will have prelim data in a week.
Imperial college are a disgrace for using the words they did in the initial public data release. “Horrific” is a word that needs to be reserved for the Express or the Guardian. Not to address something that is causing so much global anxiety.
Same thoughts as you Jeff, I couldn't read that article but found this one, I'm not a fan of telegraph but seems ok. Mild and unusual, I hope those are the words that are prominent today, but I do t trust newspapers to about this from the rooftops as it's not fear based.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/south-african-doctor-raised-alarm-omicron-variant-says-symptoms/
Has the world gone mad.... We know very little about this variant or the impact of it on vaccinated individuals. Yes it's of concern but how much TBD. Masks should never have been removed in the first place given the little overhead on peoples lives. This virus is not going away and it will work its way through communities. This is the new flu. I hope Monday is a bounce not a crash but who knows... Friday was awful for my portfolio given I am long here...
Definitely dipping sub 300p this week.
Mask mandate is the clear indication which direction this going. Essential travel is up next Imo.
2 cents for the weekend
Opec reaction to covid possibly will hold back on releasing more oil into the market to support oil prices. I don’t think it will make much difference with the uncertainty faced at the mo. Really depends how much the rest of the world reacts to this new variant.
Covid is a threat the market has gotten used to and probably pricing in worse case which is a lockdown. But as quick as they can price this in any whiff of it being a non issue then things will tick back up.
I think covid though is not as big an issue as the one I mentioned before one that’s going to tip the entire world into chaos next year is evergrande. It is a huge black swan event you need to watch out for. With almost 8 billion plus due over the course of the next 12 months I predict a collapse by March-May sending shockwaves through the market and the rest of the world. Covid pshhh you haven’t seen anything yet. Tin hat folks winters only starting.
https://www.ft.com/content/e0a447f9-b4c2-45dc-bfc8-755b284d18d2
Debt calendar dates for those interested.
It will likely lead to another big round of qe endless money printing to save an already failing monetary system.
Anyway good luck wishing you good health and good fortune.
Another point, wasn’t there a large stash made in Q3 that was written down for accounting rules, as the strike price on gas contracts was well up in the futures market?
With gas and oil contracts traded on futures, doesn’t this mean that BP will, at least on paper, rake it in according to arcane accountancy rules, as customers are now locked in to the futures price they agreed?
Will get an indication of what Biden expects to happen next, depending upon whether he tops up the strategic reserve in the next few weeks. Any increase in stock should be a bullish signal imho.
Strategy will be to close down some other stuff
To build in some moolah to catch any drop here. A bad gamble on my part on airline stocks last month will be closed at a hefty loss and used to build the pot here and at RDSB. Fundamentals haven’t changed. Roads still really busy and will remain so. Demand may not pick up and I’m fully expecting OPEC to pause or even reverse production increases on Weds. All this has done is justify their production increase plan… . was tempted to half the pot on Friday, but think price volatility and a descent headroom on average entry gives me the confidence to ride this out.
I won’t be touching airline stocks, ever again. Twice bitten, doubly shy.
Up on Monday down on Friday expecting more news next Saturday or Sunday easy play.
Sorry, licker*
Hopefully locker, really hoping one of the more important govs don't do something stupid and encourage more fear mongering
Goldmine sachs and other analysts saying worst possible case priced in. Expect bounce
US was up o.8% after hours from UK close, oil dropped a lot from us open to close but SP didn't drop a lot more, which I was not expecting. Could be a harder correction after people have seen how low oil has gone. However hoping to see oil price shoot up before open as the % drop was not justified, I can't call this one, was a odd day and I think Monday will be the same. Might be quiet until opec, which is Wednesday??
RED
Any views on the Monday open ?