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Neil37 – let me first of all say that I’m no expert so what I’m about to say should not be taken in any way as financial advice!
You say you are keen to safeguard your inheritance. Well investing 100% in a single stock is (in my opinion) extremely risky. As you are 59 years of age time is probably not on your side should the BP share price suffer a major setback. I base that statement on the fact that I am 65 years of age so invest accordingly. Having retired early at 61 and, with the exception of my workplace pension, I manage my own portfolio.
You seem relatively new to investing, and so whatever you decide to do I would suggest you keep it very simple at this stage.
I would definitely diversify. An option for consideration if you want to consider investing in a couple of funds would be to split your fund investments between one tracker, or index, fund and one managed fund.
Two I have been happy with over the years are Vanguard FTSE Global All Cap Index fund and Fundsmith Equity fund class T. Invest in the accumulation version of each fund ie any income from the holdings is automatically reinvested. If you want to take income regularly as you say both offer an automatic drawdown facility ie monthly, quarterly etc. In this way you set the amount of income you wish to take and when. Invest directly with them not via a 3rd party platform. Here's their websites: www.vanguard.co.uk & www.fundsmith.co.uk
As global stock markets have been volatile recently you may wish to drip feed your capital into funds over a period of time. However, I would say that having money in funds is probably less risky than having it with BP. Ensure you use your stocks and shares isa allowance each year and if you also set up a sipp with Vanguard you can invest £2,880 each year, also in the same fund, and HMRC will top it up to £3,600. There are other rules here which you should be aware of.
I’m not saying don’t invest in BP (I’m still here) but with what you’ve said having all your capital invested here seems, to me, to be a very risky strategy considering your objective is to protect your capital.
Nothing I’ve said should be taken as advice just some information for you to explore. Feel free to come back if clarification on anything I’ve said is needed.
Good Luck.
Bp has a cycle of around 25% from triple witching and the next results. Study this and make money....
Neil
Glad you are listening to what is being said, there is a lot of risk being in only one share as you have found out.
Won’t give advice, but will suggest what I might do in your shoes.
1) set a target price which may be £4.75 or a bit lower to take a bit off the table.
Probably take about £40,000 off table and put into some fund.
Zac knows more about them than me , and would certainly listen to him with usual caveats.
This would allow me to dip toe in the funds market and learn a bit, before any large placement of funds.
2) I would then set a new target price to sell next portion of shares.( possibly £5 )
At same time I would be thinking if I had any ISA allowance I could transfer some into while still a loss.
3) Since from your timing you have been in all the way down to bottom, would be leaving about a third as an investment to hopefully take advantage of BP future sp.
4) when you do sell your larger amount by then you will know more about funds and returns , but probably should have more than one, again it’s risk management.
Never be afraid to ask a question it’s not nice learning the hard way and we all still make mistakes.
There is a huge knowledge on this board and many as you can see are only too keen to help.
I am more risk averse than Zac so would probably avoid the risk of being in a foreign currency as the pound could go anyway, but that’s one of your choices that you need to be sure of.
Good luck and enjoy the process ,it’s meant to be fun
zac0_4, Thankyou fot your opinion & advice, really appreciate it, Bp is the only investment i have had, the money invested was from Inheritance so naturally i am keen to safeguard it, i am not over familiar with investment products and my opinion of Independent Finacial Advisors is they generally have their own interests at heart, pushing your money in a direction that is their own interests. So should i sell BP and have 200k what is possibly the best options, ideally i would like a quarterly/6 month income stream, would it be best to split my money into 2 funds? Further lessening risk? Anyone reading too, I would like to listen to advice, please add comments, my personal circumstances, aged 59, still working 20% tax payer, willing to lock away 3 to 5 years, obviously upon advices/opinions i have to DYOR Thanks in advance
Brilliant thoughts of meoryou! Thanks
Reinvest your divis too, it really mounts up
Tinker
This time they have not front end loaded the buyback so we are seeing a different profile of sp movement.
You would assume that the high due to buybacks will be at least similar to last time , but hopefully more permanent as buybacks will continue at volume all quarter this time.
Ideally this buyback will lay a much higher foundation for next quarter buybacks
Unless we get some world event which is really negative.
Just when you start to think you can rely on history repeating itself it always changes.
Neil,
We seem both to have bought into BP for the same reasons and at just the wrong time. My average is 480 and I’ve had a virtually permanent paper loss since I bought. Meoryou has pointed out that the early stages of each quarterly buyback programme send the SP up to peak levels before dropping back. I would hope we’d reach about 470 in this quarter and if you’re anxious to reduce then you may get that opportunity without too severe a loss in the next month or so. Longer term, I think there will be good rewards it’s a question of whether personal circumstances make that sensible. Good luck anyway.
Tinker
The majority of the earnings growth isn’t planned to be achieved from the switch to renewables which accounts for $2-3b EBITDA by 2030.
It looks to me like much of the earnings growth comes from convenience and mobility. Remember we bought Thorntons in the US and opened our first Jio BP station in Mumbai last year (inc Wild Bean café). These businesses offer an opportunity to tap into high margin sales outside of fossil fuels and will contribute up to $10b towards earnings (alongside EV charging), by 2030.
Things seem to be running nicely. Past performance isn’t a guide to the future and all that…
Companies don’t normally have a chance to do a major change of direction at a time when they are making massive amounts of cash.
Normally you need to change direction because your market has changed, so you try to change to survive, at a time when sales are down.
BP is in an unusual situation where it had made a major pivot in strategy at a time when oil price and profits are high.
This means it can choose what it wants to do and can address both its number one priorities and it’s number two priorities and it’s number three priorities all at the same time ,( these being debt, share buyback, and investing in renewables).
Time will tell if management have chosen well
BP won’t come out of this decade the same way it entered it.
Massively reduced debt (possibly net cash), massively reduced share capital, a growing dividend (quite possibly above the pre-covid dividend), and growing earnings out to 2030.
Personally I don’t think it will be valued as before in the long run.
“ . . . maybe as the winter sets in & if oil prices increase maybe we can hit 475, i would personally be delighted with that, i would bail out & diversify . . . “
Neil, your above statement says it all to me. In my opinion you’re carrying way too much risk for a relatively small reward!
You’re holding close to £240k whilst readily admitting you’ll “bail out” if you get 11% return from here. The risk doesn’t match the reward! I would quickly diversify a large amount of your holding. There are plenty of global equity funds offering a much safer, similar, return from here.
This is a cyclical stock that's so dependent on the price of oil. It could turn down quickly. As I say, for me, too much risk for the reward you’re after.
As has been stated this is only my opinion. Good Luck!
Neil
I have the mind set that once a decision has been made it’s done and you just accept how it goes , it’s the time up till you have made a decision that is stressful.
We all feel that the moment you sell sp suddenly goes up by a chunk.
I don’t loose sleep over being invested in BP .
If you have been looking in for a while you will know some of the very excellent posters on here.
Keep posting everyone’s opinion means something.
Even (or maybe especially) if it’s different from mine.
It’s always interesting being invested in BP
Good luck Neil
There are some really nice people on this board.
I am very bullish. Xwhen it comes to Bp
So for me £5
Which will be achievable in my view within 6 months
I will be selling some on the way up ie £4.50
Who dares wins
:))))))))))))))
I'm definitely going to continue to hold. I remember that period very well and hopefully that's all in the past. I tend to agree with you about the profitability of our green operations, and ideally would like to see Bernard expand more on profit expectations for our green energy investments.
Jakers & Meoryou, thanks for your input, well, casting my mind back to quite a few sleepness nights in July 2020 when it hit 189 was it? I guess with any shares what ever the decision to sell or buy, you seem to have the mindset what ever you decide will be wrong!I'm kind of thinking just keep holding as a longterm thro 2025 & keep taking the dividends to balance my own personal books so to speak of. It kind of goes against the grain to feel a loss, saying that, if you offered me 400 when at 189 i'd have given my left ball for it! Not convinced at the moment of all the green parts of the business, Bernard seems to think the figures will stack up, re buybacks, surely at some point it has got to start having a greater effect than is seems to have at the moment
Neil, welcome on board. As Meoryou has said you will find many opinions here, but remember that's all they are just opinions, and your own is as good as everyone else's. I'm in a similar situation having bought in at £4.81. Realistically I don't see this share getting past 4.70/4.80 near term. As it has been said the oil price will be pivotal, however I am of the view that oil will remain north of $80 for the rest of this year, and that will generate very good profits and ensure our dividend. I wish you well with your holding.
Jakers
Hi Neil
One thing for sure is you will get a wide range of views here.
1) firstly personally I am surprised how hard this share seems to find staying above £4.
I personally feel that with the profits they are making sp should be £5
2)It’s really all about the oil price over the next 12 months.
If you believe oil will stay high( close to $100) then £4.75 seems possible.
If you believe the next recession will kill oil price( and I do NOT believe this) then you will be looking for a price that lets you get out as safely as possible.
Since you have all eggs in one basket, feel that your risk maybe needs to be trimmed with a few sells as you hit whatever milestones make sense to you, just in case.
It’s all just an opinion and whatever other advise you get make your OWN decisions and do your own research
I thought I was a bit too heavy in BP , but am not as bad as you.
Good luck
Hello all, a total newbie here, have been observing this group from afar for 12 months or more,currently holding 56,000 shares @474p, so currently have a paper loss, however, took dividend of 14k in 2020 (divi cut mid 20), 9K in 2021 & 5K this year to date, so overall a little up, naturally like all of us fear a change of government in 2 years & getting Windfall taxed heavily, thinking of bailing this quarter with the strong buybacks, as you have all seen several brokers seem to rate BP anything from 450 to 600p, i cannot really see personally over 500p, maybe as the winter sets in & if oil prices increase maybe we can hit 475, i would personally be delighted with that, i would bail out & diversify, i have put all my eggs in one basket, as things were good with a decent dividend & who in our life times could have predicted a Global pandemic followed by a War in Europe, just wondered what other opinions are on this board, if only we all had a crystal ball i know, thanks in advance, Neil