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on my watchlist for a bounce but i think that will only come after a few more days and a lot lower price than this, I would feel very nervous about buying in @ this price and i feel Monday especially could be another bad day here after the weekend to sup up the numbers.
well the BoD being forced [ish] to sell millions of shares @ £24 each to meet institutional demand seemed to have been good for the BoD and bad for the Instys........ Still unloved, maybe more so now.than ever......Taken this off my watchlist,....... B
Sorry, care to elaborate why that would be required?
Any Chance this could finish on £9.00
This one really in hot water...
I have heard a whisper that a rescue rights issue could be on the cards...
Real shame, looks like another casualty of COVID.
Hmmm,
I have to admit, I'm not surprised by this morning's news. One of the major considerations here is that the poor trading simply isn't just down to people going to the pub or on holiday instead. The fact is that, throughout lockdown, there were many business owners hemorrhaging cash that are entrepreneurs by nature and looking at how they could make money in what was the current covid environment. There's no doubting that this sector was hot and the barriers to entry really are very low indeed; a social media presence and a small warehouse to film and store vehicles. These types of competition based companies are 10 a penny now, and it almost seems as though almost every car-related 'social influencer' has set one up to cash-in and inevitably, this has and will continue to have an impact on the pioneers in this sector like BOTB.
This is not a short-term hit here, but part of wider market movement that has significantly more competition now than it did pre-covid. The downward trend here could just be beginning now, as the ever-increasing competition continue to expand their customer base.
If we're being honest, it's been a great run here at BOTB, from the airport days (where I was a keen player), but the PDMR's played a blinder in selling 60m of shares @ what was ultimately the peak period for this sector and BOTB especially. It's hard to see this ever getting back to those levels again and ultimately the numbers and profit-margins will continue to get squeezed as the new and significant competition acquire more of the market share.
Best,
Nate
Special dividend of 50 pence paid out a few weeks ago would have reduced the cash
With the shocking news today I may be confused but am I right in saying that the company had £11.8m cash at the end of April but now down to £6m. Where's it gone?
Apologies if I misunderstand. Time to stick my head in a cold bucket of water.
This is the time you regret calling yourself the best of the best
If so, what a bad week it has been. I am invested in HE1 and I know how hard it is once trust in the management has been lost and when the SP crashes by 50%.
Stay strong
https://app.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-fri-13-august-2021-placeholder-853654?order=createdAt&sort=desc&mode=threaded
(SUBSCRIPTION ONLY)
Best Of The Best (LON:BOTB)
I’ll rush to get this out before 8am, as this share is widely held by readers (and by me!)
Background - briefly is that this supercars competition company went entirely online (it started in UK airports), and started delivering stellar growth. The shares were a big multibagger. However, more recently the gloss came off BOTB shares when management sold about £60m of shares in a secondary placing at £24 per share, after a lengthy period when the company was up for sale. About 2 months later, a disappointing trading update hit the share price, which has settled around £15,
Trading Update (profit warning) - today
Best of the Best PLC (LSE: BOTB), the online organiser of weekly competitions to win cars and other lifestyle prizes, provides the following trading update for the 15 weeks ended 8 August 2021.
This is the start of FY 04/ 2022.
The company had previously (on 16 June 2021) said that trading had softened, since lockdown ended on 12 April 2021.
Guidance slashed - a lengthy explanation is given, but the key point, and it’s horrible, is that profit for FY 04/2022 is now expected to be 57% down on FY 04/2021.
Actual EPS last year (FY 04/2021) - 122.5p
New guidance for this year (FY 04/2022) - 52.7p
Finncap’s last note was forecasting 142.4p EPS for this year. The RNS says new guidance is 62% below market forecasts (there’s only one forecast, I think), which arrives at 54.1p, very close to the 52.7p figure above.
EDIT: revised forecasts have just come through from Finncap, as follows;
This year 53.3p
Next year 64.1p
Its revised target price is 1400p - which is certainly not realistic in the short term, but could come about if trading recovers in due course, who knows? It seems that BOTB is a lot more unpredictable than we realised.
What PER to use? I'm leaning towards 15-20, implying a valuation of 800-1066p, that's what I think it's now worth for the time being. Longer term, who knows, that depends on whether trading recovers or not.
PatrickL makes a very good point in the comments below, that revenue is forecast to only drop from £45.7m to £40.0m (still more than double pre-covid level), but it's the operational gearing that's the killer here. that leads to a forecast 57% drop in profitability.
End of edit.
Cash balances - over £6m at 12 August 2021, so no issues with solvency or liquidity.
What’s gone wrong? A lengthy explanation is given, but it boils down to reduced customer demand (people spending money on other things since lockdown ended), and higher marketing rates resulting in lower marketing activity.
My opinion - this is a stinker, much worse than I was expecting.
Unfortunately, I think the share price probably halves today, to £7-8 (am writing this at 07:38). I've already decided there's no point in trying to sell, because there won't be any buyers until it's found a level much lower, this share tends to be very illiquid.
Assume the brace position
My reading of the situation is that the 'distractions' highlighted in the RNS are not going away - they will get more pronounced; e.g football , other lotteries , holidays , pubs etc. This is a great business but not worth current valuation imv in a post lockdown world.
Taverham good decision I think. Not nice to crystallize a loss but sensible here. Can see this going lower. Might be an opportunity for a bounce in a few days.....
Sold most of the rest of mine for £8,20 which I think is a good price. It will have to fall below £7 to tempt me back.
Yep, not many going to try and trade this one with a 16% spread, MM’s taking the mick here
What a wild and unattractive spread %
£7 today?
Shes going down.......
Barnet peter cautioned on this back in June and he was right to do so, Pleased I sold 30% of my stock here over last month - just wish I had sold more!
Definitely going to get rocky today!
Anywhere south of £6 is a buy in my opinion - however where it will end up today is anyone's guess.
I just see 'ouch', fear for shareholders here today
Wrong timing MozzaBezza. Hope you sold out as this is heading to £4 IMO, which was the prepandemic value.
Earnings were forecast to be £16m, at 62% below this figure you are looking at just £6m... this is surely heading back to £5 - 7ish a share, slightly above pre pandemic levels but nowhere near where it has traded. I saw a couple of twitter posts last week that were claiming this was a buy as there was a bowl forming on the chart, I thought at the time it was complete nonsense as for a bowl to sustain you need sustained positive sentiment, clearly that isn't the case here at present.