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Meant to say July!!
Bullit.............I do understand your concerns.......and it will be very interesting to see how this pans out tomorrow. My own belief is for the SP to rise rather than fall...........As previously stated the big investors will have read the report before it was released....I too am pretty certain of this........according to LSE there were 55m of sales and only 53 million of purchases.............that is totally wrong............the SP would have not risen as it did....particularly in the afternoon if things were not perceived to have been positive. You are correct about the bad press.....they have a point to prove and have done their best to suppress the SP since it was first reported in September......unsuccessfully!! Boo is a huge Company that is where it is because of the vision of the founders.............I have no problems with them been billionaires.....I bet you that they worked more hours in the year at the start of the Company than the average man does in his lifetime!! They deserve the rewards........not liked by the press though..............!! All I know is that I bought initially at £1.87 and sold at £2.80 to watch the SP rise to over £4.00 regretting every day on the rise that I hadn't held....................then came a great opportunity to buy at between £2.00 and £3.00 and couldn't believe my luck......didn't ever think I would get back in................On Friday there were some huge buys (posted by kttykitty)..................almost certainly IIs.............even a chance tomorrow of getting more RNSs............either from Boo or IIs ... Just hope we are right and you are wrong!!! Could be congratulating you tomorrow.......but I suspect you will have to pay more to get back in.............good luck!!
Just to say as well, I am going to be very surprised if you get a buying opportunity in the 300s on Monday.
@Bullit funds will have a stabilising effect on the SP, will not block us from getting to any price if they are not re-entering yet.
The only thing this needs to get to a massive SP now, is good results and signs of growth for the future. Welcome to capitalism!
There is but one thing that could block us from lofty heights, that is a visible effect of the ESG stuff on sales.
Remember as a private investor we are the last to know - the analogy is this, imagine working in a large multinational company in the post room at what point would you find out it had been bought and taken over... i would think long after every other person of influence in the company found out before you !!!
@Manc - the funds would of had sight of that report 72/48/24 hours before 10000% - the buying was due to the green light that report confirmed it wasn’t known and part of the business model. As expected - some areas, can improve = Boohoo oh yes we will do all of that and more, green light to funds and investors the coast is clear full up
A significant volume of trade during Friday after the report was fully available to be read. Would the funds not have already pulled out on reading the full report on Friday, rather than being swayed by the gutter press over the weekend?
400p will be reached on Monday IMO and we should be in 420p range ahead of the results...500p post results if all is well. All IMO if course!
The report was released in full because the company has done NOTHING wrong. Yes it could have been proactive against bad practices bur not their responsibility. IMHO. It is a great buy before results which Would seem certain to be STONKING.
Incorrect. Some of the funds were out some kept reduced holdings (Aberdeen Standard Life being one) . No good keeping repeating stuff it is just my guess and as a shareholder i can ramp as well as the next man but human nature says that people tend to walk away from a bad smell rather than towards it. Love this to smash estimates but that wont change a thing.
@bullit sorry mate but you are a classic doom merchant, your six related boo related posts are very clearly split into two camps - clearly when you held and since you sold.
Incorrect, the funds were out the second the allegations were made.
@steve I enjoy reading your balanced posts and like you i try to be open to othet peoples views. Every newsapaper of any readership had articles this weekend about BOO. I dont doubt that results will be good and that the target market will have been buying during the lockdowns. The people who shape the SP are not the likes of posters on this board but the instututions , pension funds etc. The posibility of them reducing holdings is real now that the bad news is in the open. People saying it is priced in - well i would love to know what they thought the outcome was going to be, as we are all no doubt surprised by the full and frank report being released in full. I for one too risk off the table before the weekend in anticipation of some negative press. I will be buying in early next week if i am wrong. GLA
@Arnold - sure. I can email it to you?
I think a Monday retrace would probably be healthy, however I am also way to willing to top up again if I get the opportunity. So wouldn't bank on it happening.
Very obvious money is very much on the table for all traders to see, the news and social pickup for this stuff has been far from noticeable outside the woke and the newspaper readers, neither of which being the target demographic.
Pawnking, would you be willing to share the JPM note?
Would be much appreciated if you would!
To repeat an earlier note. Interims - anything north of £800m revenue at interims will be stellar (42% top line growth). The key for me will be the US revenue growth as this will bring Boohoo to a more international investor pool if it continues its USA growth. At the last year end and interims, USA revenue growth was c. 60%, so assuming a slightly lower revenue growth as it gets scale, with 42% growth that is £157m revenue, not far behind the £210m of ASOS.
Recent financial performance:
Q1 31 May 2020:
- £367m revenue (up 45%)
Year end 29 Feb 2020:
- £1,235m revenue (up 44%) and EBITDA £126.5m (up 50%)
- US revenue: £263m (up 58%)
- Active customers 13.9m (up 31%)
- Average basket £43.50 (up 6%)
Interims 30 Sep 2019:
- £565m revenue (up 43%) and EBITDA £60.7m (up 53%)
- USA revenue: £111m (up 62%)
- Active customers 13.0m (up 30%)
- Average basket £43.26 (up 7%)
I've read through the 52 pages of the JPM Broker Note a couple of times this weekend. Well worth a read - very detailed comparison to ASOS and what ASOS do to audit their supply chain tier 1 to 5 and how BOO needs to improve their audit processes. They also go into a lot of detail comparing to Inditex.
Their DCF target is 550p and then discount to 415p for the ESG issues, which hopefully will be largely addressed, so whilst their discounted target is 415p... their DCF target is 550p, which is very encouraging given they published pre-RNS. I think we will be all time high on Weds 440-450p. Monday may see some retrace IMO... all about Weds!
Any retrace will provide yet another opportunity to buy well below the price it will be COB Wednesday as all the other negative articles have provided. Sold 20% of my holding on Friday and will happily reinvest the proceeds back into Boo if any form of material retrace occurs. I do think this unlikely however.
Bullit of course the times were going to go hammer and Tong for it - but there was little else for them to do. Why is the SP going to retrace, the opposite has happened, the powers that be are satisfied with the response. If there was going to be pain you would of seen it Friday and then bleed into next week. A 15% rise is hardly a rejection of the report is it? Who do you think will now sell 48hours before results on the basis of an article in the times.... for what it’s worth there is also a lot of balanced reporting on the outcome across media outlets this weekend
I expect a retracing of the SP and much of the improvement this week being eroded. Results are likely to be very good and things will improve. The opportunity to buy more will be there early in the week I think. Not good news in the Times with 3 separate articles asking questions. If you believe in the business model this should be a bump in the road.
If I had been mauled by the media in such a manner, I'd be furious. I wouldn't resort to petty back biting here and there. I'd pull everything in, wait till I see the whites of their eyes and then let them have it.
That's why the companies silence never bothered me, I could feel something brewing in the background.
And in my opinion my friends, we're going to be seeing reply that very soon.
Kitty.
I always maintained that there are people far cleverer than us working on this, not to mention the masters of social media.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if they haven't got something lined up just as you have suggested. There could be an absolute media barrage one the numbers are out.
Going to be watching every one of them until Thursday on L2
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