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Bullitt, no need for apologies mate. It's great to hear other people's thoughts, and good education for the novices.
When I first started I was convinced there were secrets, then I realise the software sellers were charlatans and they didn't know the secrets either. There were several seminars and some expensive education before I realised, THERE ARE NO SECRETS. Just a lot of legwork.
Even now I continue to evolve, we all do and that never stops.
Couple of good points youve made in the last few posts there wyndrum, never enter a strange pub unless you know where the exits are and before you actually ask her to marry you ask yourself knowing what you now know would you still ask her out!
Hi bullet, I understand we have different ways of looking at things and that's obviously fine but my observation would be only that you site a couple of reasons why you would sell, again fine, but at the same you also said you have history of either selling too soon or too late.
FWIW (and please excuse if this sounds patronising, its not meant to be), when it gets to say 395p and you are close to selling. Pretend then that you are looking at Boo with a view to purchase. See if it meets any of your buy criteria and perhaps if it does it might make it easier for you to recognise if selling at 400p is the right thing to do? (Obviously it may well be the correct action, but its just a thought?)
I tend to look at historic valuations, how easy would it be to set up a business to to offer what (say BOO) do. If historic SP suggest that all being equal the share is cheap I buy on that basis. Year lows and understanding why are the starting point for me on legacy shares. New technologies or new markets are different and that is based on whether i think is is a good idea. Good value and when to sell are more about sentiment around the share from yhe current marketplace. It may be that i need the money for something more exciting. More of a seat of the pants guy than you would sum uo my approach i guess. Sorry all for this off topic insight into trading methodologies.
certainly its one of the hardest bits of the job, knowing when to sell.
fwiw my experience has been that if you don't know why you are buying you won't know when to sell. So eg, Boo, goes down a lot, seems cheap, lots of potential to go back up, so I know I'll buy!! Then it goes up but because my plan was so vague I have no real idea of where I should get out? I guess I am saying that you can make decisions to buy without so much thought, perhaps just a broad outline of what the individual might think is "good value" but by not clarifying the thought process at the beginning, its impossible to know at any stage if its still "good value" or perhaps now fully valued.
I always have a plan of where to get in and get out (both on the upside and the downside. I won't let a bad decision tie up my funds for a long time on the hope things get better). If the plan works out I review my position and decide whether to take the profit or, if the news had been better than forecast then I reappraise whether or not to sell. If I decide to hold I have a new plan. And that incudes potentially adding to my holding as well as deciding new points of exit.
Its not full proof (nothing is0 but I genuinely think the lack of a clear exit plan can usually be traced back to a poorly thought out plan and reason of entry which is obscured by the ultimate success of the trade. (imo)
Not a predetermined plan but i would have an automatic trade in place to take some of the emotion out of the process. Someone else did it. I normally regret selling too early or too late for a long time. Like most people the long list of 'what ifs'are remembered for a long time. I envy those who have nerves of steel.
Hi bullit, How will you feel do you think, at 397p and then it starts to go down to say, 390? Would you maybe sell at 390p and not risk 400p maybe not coming round??
(I guess I am trying to find out if this is just an emotional thing or part of a pre determined plan)
Feel free to ignore these questions
For me it is close enough to the peak before the Leics thing blew up. Historically I have hung onto shares too long and got trampled on in the stampede for the door. Will have done very nicely by then too.
may I ask bullet, what is special about 400p?
Chris, thanks. Struggled to buy or sell real time and lost money as a result still a profit is a profit. BOO different proposition and fundamentals support the current price range. My fear is once £4 is reached my bottle will fail me. GLA
While on the topic of future investments may I turn your attention to PRD. A small Oil and Gas outfit utilizing new EOR technology across the industry.
Stock has increased 300% in value since March on the back of 3 transformational projects.
I am personally invested rather heavily and if you check out the BB you will see intelligent discussions of potential 100 bags to be made. This will no doubt catch the eye of the wider market shorty and now is the chance to get in early to make some serious returns IMO. DYOR
SYME in and out +33%
you must be minted from that deal then
Again after boo it’s boo. Look at the weekend soreness of those who sold out to early and tried to spread fear then just keep seeing it rise rise rise.
Any thoughts on XPP?
SYME worth a punt as when cash is tight and there is inventory equity release makes sense. Easy to replicate and no real barriers to entry in that market so risky. VLS as commeted on by Chris - my experience with avaition fuels is that the quality of the fuel for aircraft is the highest and engine manufacturers with quickly point pingers if engines fail.
I like alternative fuels ITM, CERES and IP companies such as KETL and IPO.
BOO of course.
Your call - like I said, worth doing your own research on.
I’d never touch anything that Justin Waite fanboys over, skin was one of those. Avoid.
SKIN (integum) and Modern Water have some interesting plays at the moment in partnership with Avacta - worth checking out.
Always fun to have some penny stocks. I've got a few - pure punts, but you never know. I'm hoping HEMO does well - plenty of bio-medical irons in the fire... just takes one. Got VAL as well which is up this morning.
Solid start from BOO - reconfirming its resistance in the mid-3teens.
SYME - effectively crowd funding for plant and machinery to the manufacturing sector... little risk in that end market! Badging itself as a FINTECH company, but effectively an Asset Backed Lender. Can't see it long term, but nonetheless, if someone owns those shares, makes great reading this morning.
Nex is a very good prospect as economic recovery begins
Worth a look imho and I would say much stronger balance sheet than fgp
Rahul, Whilst a second corona wave might be inevitable what’s not inevitable is how governments will manage it. I agree that banking construction and travel are all venerable to the kind of restrictions we faced when wave 1 put us into lockdown and they remain venerable even if there is no wave2 as the economy falters and job losses and business failures and inevitable loan or mortgage failures affect the industries most vulnerable to such things. However I question whether govt would go back into a lockdown that would effectively bring the economy to its knees. I believe that much of the expected cost of Covid wave 1 is priced into the affected sectors and a reluctance by governments to treat a second wave the same way should mean that banking construction and leisure/travel are as cheap as they will get. I bought into some of these sectors for that reason which means I’ve either got in at a good price or I’ve successfully caught a falling knife that merely halted its fall just long enough for me to grasp it! I’ll look back at my decisions at some point and either call myself a successful contrarian investment guru or a complete tool for trying to second guess Covid and the market two tings which in all fairness I knew Nothing about! I do have balance in the portfolio and my recovery punts are smaller in percentage terms than my buy and hold forever shares but my personal view is if I’m not prepared to take risk based on my own interpretation of what I see I might as well just buy a tracker or put all my funds into investment trusts and let someone else make the hard decisions. I hope I’m at least a little bit right but hey I always hope for that!!
I’d avoid banking, construction and travel sectors because of the 2nd corona wave which is inevitable.
hey saint-tropez
sorry to ask but I can't find any info on phase 3 trails for VAL and COVID
any change you could post a link please ? :)
Nice article Steve