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fair enough milkman
I think you've proven you know nothing about boohoo
- mark down model
- test and repeat
- KM expanding lines and test and repeat here
- can't understand basic economics of a market place
- margin in the wholesale are the same and then they weren't
- platform is just the website (not in the relm of boohoo and the equity story)
- lead times (you just didn't know these and got them all wrong)
- data and kpis (what is this?)
- NWC (again sorry what's this)
ohhh but I know the cameras they use
Are you still ceo of regatta? Huge swerve in all of the above. Funny how i can answer your points but you can't answer a single one of mine (20th time - too scared to be exposed that you don't understand shares? Do you even know what you've bought?)
@Danman, THE BIG PICTURE for you is me, lol, results day was epic, much thanks.
ha this is great but I agree Windy it's the small things is all he can focus on as the big picture is lost. he does think this is a "ragtrade" the same as topshop or even a market stall. "shares are cheap" but "impossible to value" what drivel. Why don't you admit you don't understand shares or value? You're gambling. I agree read 42traders post. "educated guess" but you can't be making an educated guess as you can't value a business or even understand it's business model (you're a supplier not a pure play retailer - you're the farmer who takes the milk to the factory you don't know how the yoghurt is made, advertised, sold and delivered. How it's growing at 40% is bewilderment to you ie you thought test and repeat was the same as topshop - do you even work in the modern world?)
Also again in 42traders post you again misunderstand 25% is great but read that the market was expecting 29% hence the sell off. it's about expectations. Also again in your post re the new brands. This is fine. But like it or not you're compared your thoughts vs expectation. Management are saying margins will be lower on the new brands (obviously they are aware that items will be coming from turkey - it's a forecast so they are baking this forward) but again you're happy to disagree and think margins will be better but this is you comparing to expectations. The thing you critique me for
So go on then let's say margins are better in the new brands. Make your comment relevant to the shares (this is where you fall down as again you don't understand share - these aren't appreciation token - this isn't crypto) so what would the value uplift potentially be from better margins or growth in the london brands?
yes this is possible to calculate and therefore you'd be able to know if shares at 310p are good value or at 400p or 500p. Atm you just know 400p as that's the highest it was before - 30 years experience - wow
@Windy aka , if you want answers to Daman's questions, then look no further than posts by 42Traders, just scroll down a bit. Sums it up perfectly, best posts of the day.
Mmmmm Windy aka , i'm not sure about you, you're actually dragging yourself into this, not many posts and only seem to be when Danman and me have message board tennis, your also very subtle, in putting him down saying he's always being right and saying i hope Rag gets one back on you , lol, one day and backing him, like i say all very subtle and concentrated.
So Windy that's my take on it and of course you don't agree, no issues, whilst there why don't you slap a valuation down, all better still don't get drawn in, yawn.
I'm not getting dragged in and this is the last I will comment. But I think you've sort of answered yourself really. That you look to the minutiae such as extra sizes but Dan is looking at the big picture. I think this might be why you both don't agree but when you're looking at a £4billion business I fail to see that extra sizes in Burton is the driving factor of success here. I think when you look at it and I did tune in yesterday to Carol (quite a lovely lady I'll add) made a lot of noise around how the platform was enabling those product range sizes to go through the roof. So again I think this helps with you and Dan as you see the output but I think Dan is telling you the big picture of how Boo is getting there.
I don't see platform as just words I think it's clear that there is something here as the high street chains have been eaten by boohoo's speed and low costs. Those advantages come from somewhere.
But to say my final piece, I think that you don't venture a clue on value suggests again you don't understand shares (I'm a novice too so I'm looking to learn more and not saying I'd be better) and I wouldn't class being rude and then dodging as finishing a point as I said I think you've looked a bit daft here and exposed that you're not too clear on the big picture when actually it's those items which have a lot of us here excited (and got me to Next). You also can't make a claim that a share is cheap and also no clue how to value in the same sentence. That's a contradiction. You're also referencing the 25% growth which is the expectation and you're comparing. Again read below you say Dan is wrong for this?
I've not enjoyed the ride here although so far as I'm on losses since last results but I feel more confident now and yesterday the results were mind blowing and I enjoyed the management team.
Windy out
@Windy, sorry fella your wrong, i simply never quote Dan ever, what i do however is respond when virtually every single post he mention's me, if he did not mention me then i'd never mention his name again , happily, i will not be bullied on line and having worked in this trade all my life i have a right to defend myself. with trade knowledge. This is an old story I don't think you are aware of the History, you cannot reason with Dan, i do not start the jibes but i def finish them tho because he has less banter than an Egyptian Mummy.
He wants a future valuation from i haven't got a clue, why, because on one else has either, spring last year the value was off the chart, everyone saying its over valued yet still it climbed, i was aware of underground chatter and bided my time, i bought heavily into Asos when the market tanked. BH is not for the light hearted, the Company has grown out of the Manchester Wholesale scene, which is not shall we say as kosher as it should be. I've no clue if he owns or not at mo and don;t really care but perhaps he wants to look at his own u/s of the future value of this share, because he was happy with it own when it had less t/o and was one dimensional with less chance of growth, yet today as far as i'm aware he doesnt own, he was valuing it £4.50 or £5.00 at one point but now isn't. So i addressed valuation and now you seem to be pushing me as he is on the Platform (website) call it what you want it's just words, i have already been down that rabbit hole with him and i'm not doing it again, if you really want to know then go back an loom at my previous posts. What i concentrate on with this share is the day to day noise, i work with this account , i posted y.day that they are moving into ES (extra sizes) not many will pick up on this but it's doubled the size of the orders, this added huge revenue for Asos when they did this, easy incremental business. Its is the minutae that will make up the revenue because this is what is builds the Platform not the word Platform !!!!!! I invested when the cracks appeared, still some small ones but if you want to see the potential then look at Next because i can tell you Next are looking at BH and are concerned. Now yesterday was results day and as Danman insisted on calling me out again i had some fun with him but i'm NA for a while now, currently this share is ridiculously cheap, a 25% increase in revenue to 2022 is perhaps why but i think this is just the Mancs going in very very low end to then say they pulled a rabbit out the hat, Q3/Q4 we will see fireworks.
Sorry boys I think I might mediate again here. Old Windy will bring some order. Although again frustrating this is helping me understand more. Rag I think here you're acting like Trump again which you accused Dan of but you're just dismissing and making silly inaccurate points which Dan is addressing and then you offer no alternative back. Your point re the bullet points which you missed and how you acted did make you look rather childish.
I will say I'm learning more and these debates are useful, I really appreciated the platform debate (the clip on the Founder - great film) was really useful and I've added to Next which this morning I feel very happy about.
I never wanted to back up Dan as I have found him frustrating and belittling in the past but rag you are x10 in the below and were the other week. So I think rather than keep putting Dan down for points you're shown to be incorrect about (I don't know how many times he re-cut the platform thing for you but it was quite clear you didn't know what it was in the modern context) you should instead offer something back in relation to what you're trying to talk down. Why not walk the walk and provide a value? I think this might settle these points sooner and we all move on
Windy out
@ Daman sooooo sorry fella , you didnt have to be Miss Marple to realise, this is Rag.
Its sooo easy to find a concensus and opions on EPS so i take with a pinch of salt and add to what most are not privy to, a direct line to BH, is stood me very well btw Burtons are buying into ES (extra sizes) very overlooked and bang on thier demo , its doubled the size of their orders, your welcome, again !!!
If you really want to know EPS suggestu to just google it and cut n paste , accountants on here will love you.
Well cut and paste or not (you added comments to a cut and paste btw)
But again if you think you have a method of valuing the business then share? As you again criticise but can’t offer anything else?
So do tell us or is it more hot air? Just like the platform stuff
Apart from cameras what have you added?
Errrrr Danman , not sure how to tell u this.
What i learnt is to literally scroll down a few posts and right click on my mouse and do this thing called cut n paste.
Thanks to all too many to mention who enabled me to shine in Danmans eyes , i will be forever grateful for many reasons.
This eps thing is a piece of p#ss.
Yeah you’ve learnt a lot youve learnt the basics of p/e valuation (don’t worry all the funds who invest the billions in boo use it too. It’s not really an accountant thing)
You’ve also learnt what a platform is! Lots on this again today from JL
You’ve learnt about boo’s test and repeat being quicker and data driven vs the way topshop did it by stores
You’ve learnt boo’s lead time is faster (3-4 weeks) vs asos (6 weeks - from the mouth of the Ceo in the investor update few weeks ago)
You’ve learnt value isn’t just from being in the “ragtrade” it’s in being a scalable platform (JL and next ceo on “being the next Ocado)
You’ve learnt a lot! And I learnt that asos have great cameras
Thanks Danman that means a lot coming from you, i learnt my lesson, looks like im finally an accountant , awesome.
So your months and months of blurting was for what? To finally understand how professional value a business
Next I’ll ask you how you think the P/e is low as you can’t just factor growth. Atm you’re getting an easy ride as you’ve learnt earnings multipled by the multiplier
What gets even more difficult and this is lesson two is how you justify or extend the multiplier!
But again you’ll struggle to do this without reading the rns, looking at expectations, KPIs and outlook
But you’re making progress
Sorry go on why am I dummer than you thought? You’ve used all the tools us accountants use to value the business
You might get a different end answer (look at analysts they all have different end answers) but the methodology is the same
I’m saying here you’ve learnt a proper methodology rather than the “used to be £4” and you’re using an “accountants” methodology
So I’m not sure why I’m dumb but for all your disagreement for months and months you now value a company the same way as us “accountants” and fund manager and everyone else here
You’ve finally caught up. I’m proud
BTW you valued it at £4.50!!
@Danman OMG you dumber than i thought !
Yes i'm extremely proud, lol.
Rag you can mock all you want but you just used every metric you critised me for. So it turns out it's not accountants who value boo this way. It's fund manager, management and it's even you
You look a bit daft now but it's cute as a few month back you didn't even have a clue what a p/e was (remember you wanted a more "normal" one - wow!)
Next you might tell us the platform is worthwhile
So you've basically spent all that effort to then just prove me right. You poured over teh rns, the stats, what management had said and then considered your thoughts against expectations. Everything you said "accountants" do as guess what? the rag method of "used to be £4 so looks cheap is how idiots value a business"
Are you not proud of how far you have come?
T4G give me break we haven't had banter like this for weeks and weeks, in fairness Daman went off to mining, i was quite worried i thought he'd fallen down a shaft !!! besides it's results day anything goes !
To be fair you have upset me i thought i posted some good earnings stats, Danman even called me an accountant, boom !!!
@Daman Sachs i forgot you got it wrong, i sound like an accountant, not looking like one, that's you fella, i tried to help you by getting you into a pair of 14 Wale Cords but you turned me down, big mistake you'd have nailed it down the pub sipping your Pimm's, bet your thanking me for those height increasing shoes though, your welcome.
@Danman, no pleasing some, lol, lol, in my pocket wee man.
BTW Good Luck to Chelsea tonight.
"compared to guidance" - ha love it
Management sentences and using expectations. Its awesome
You're sounding just like an investor now. Come along way from "used to be £4 so it looked cheap"
This is a great moment. Rag is now looking like an accountant! Even referring to margin outlook and everything (i remeber when you weren't too keen on margins and how boo had to maintain this)
God p/e's and everything - what a day
yeah bullet points (you'll see all the sentences start on a new line with a "-"). quite a useful thing. Also an accountant read the investor presentation it's full of them as those in management and those at funds use them as punchy ways of communicating. Fleagate can make you laugh but I profited and you lost. So what is there to laugh at?
So for all the talk that i use numbers, graphs, expectations and management's comments to value the business and that made me "clueless" and an "accountant" it turns out rag has used numbers, graphs, expectations and management's comments to value the business
What a hypocrite! You just used the same method you took the mick out of me for! you've turned into an accountant
Awww bless. Welcome to the family (also consider in Oct you didn't know what a P/e was - cute)
Hah ha hah come on now Danman bullet points, lol, your such an accountant, too clever for your own good, fleagate, still kills me to this day.
Ok share value, now i think i've nailed this but there does appear to be a massive amount of debate and many varying opinions but i think this is a fair summary of where we at.
My personal view is that below starkly demonstrates that BOO shares are priced completely wrong, given the growth track record & prospects and in particular my own insight not just to the trade but BH and the teams.
Consider these latest forecasts:
FY 02/2022: Revenues £2,194m, Adj PBT £185m, Adj diluted EPS 11.81p (PER of 26.8, at 316p per share)
FY 02/2023: Revenues £2,741m, Adj PBT £240m, Adj diluted EPS 15.31p (PER of 20.6, at 316p per share)
Also Broker consensus is currently 10.7p EPS for FY 02/2022. BOO normally comfortably beats forecasts, which are raised throughout the year. Newness not yet hitting down hence I’m working on the assumption 12p+ is more likely for the current year. At 326p per share, the PER would be 27 times - which is a bargain, for such a strongly growing business, with almost unlimited growth runway internationally, and with multiple brands not to mention make up.
And just to add I don't know what the short term share price will do - we've seen that it's extremely volatile & unpredictable, hence why I ignore it , but i know you lurrrrrrrv it, u never used to but i think your much more comfortable with less risk and D/T, so stick with it, you should at least get your Friday night takeaways paid for.
Anyway i digress, here's a quick summary of previous guidance, which we can use to measure performance today against:
Trading Update, 14 Jan 2021
4 months to 31 Dec 2020: 40% revenue growth
10 months to 31 Dec 2020: 42% revenue growth
Guidance for 12 months to 28 Feb 2021: 36-38% (raised from previous range of 28-32%), adj EBITDA margin c.10%
Medium-term guidance: 25% p.a. revenue growth, and adj EBITDA margin of 10%
Stockopedia shows broker consensus for FY 02/2021 of: 8.47p
And so today we see
Revenues: up 40% - ahead of guidance of 36-38%
Adj EBITDA margin of 10.0% in line with guidance
Adj EPS 8.67p is a beat against broker consensus of 8.47p (2.4% ahead)
Adj EPS of 8.67p is up 47% on last year
Strongest growth geographically was in USA, at +65%
New guidance for FY 02/2022: 25% revenue growth (of which 5% from newly-acquired brands) - note that guidance tends to be raised as years progress.
Current trading - trading in first few weeks of new financial year has been “encouraging”
Returns rate - benefit from a lower customer returns rate in FY 02/2021 is expected to “begin to unwind”
Carriage & freight costs - significantly elevated, expected to continue
I cud go on but i've nailed it, however if you really want to get hard then check this out Danman you'll love this, chart porn for you.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/BOOHOO-GROUP-PLC-16023307/financials/
How'd i d
They were all on separate bullet points. bullet points are used when you're making separate points. they don't read on
bullet points are quite common in business. Sorry if they have confused you
Also your point isn't even correct if you were to read my points as one big paragraph (it's not it's bullet points) then the two comments before were about forecast and outlook (growth from new brands and the associated forecast margin compression). This is as i base value on forward not backward. Backward is just how you track what the art of the possible is
So sorry this item 4 now you've got confused?
Also a huge swerve on how to value a share. Come on have ago. you try (and due to basic misunderstanding/ lack of common sense get it wrong) and criticize but offer no other answer. So how do you value the share?