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Wolf at last someone talking some sense on here
Pab
So we’ve got Kallu, the seasoned investor who has successfully managed his portfolio through three recessions, follows the mantra of Charlie Munger, applies his five filters to every investment.
Yet only appears to have one investment … and wait for it …. spends more time on here than with his fellow ARB investors.
An experienced investor with no diversification who believes that online is finished and bricks and mortar retail is the future.
Pull the other one.
errr, nope. try again eh.
Meanwhile keep on dreamin
Kallu, if you went to a school where people spouted drivel that went unchecked, it explains a lot. I think you need to put your big boy pants on.
When did grading a level of nonsense against another benchmark of nonsense become bullying. Have I missed something in the news or something. Is this now what constitutes bullying?
My apologies Kallu, youre right. We are at peak internet sales, and the markets are always efficient. Is that better?
You've almost topped Kallu with this drivel. Not quite, but close.
Why are you looking at the market price to decide what the value of the company is? Man alive. The market is there to serve you, not inform you. Let me guess, your one of these people who thinks reading tea leaves and chart patterns going to tell what a stock will do next week.
Mool
The market used to rate this much higher than the current sp, it has dropped quite a fair bit and stayed fairly static since.
The stock market works on sentiment as well as supply and demand to a great extent.
Market currently says 260 not 400 odd like some say, generally those who have paid higher thn the current sp.
I would suggest to you that the market has revalued the company based on earlier mis valuations as you say, hence the much lower level. The market didnt have it right before but has clearly adjusted.
Primark has strong competitor Matalan not often mentioned here
What about nav per share?
More interesting today sales £1.5 million purchases £3 million. Sp goes down. Same thing happening at Entain today
And for the record I've never said people will only shop online in the future. My comentary has been on the obvious trend towards online, and speculating about what this may look like in the future because it's a fun thing to think and speculate about. I think high end retail will always be in the high street, but for mass market sales the distribution and data benefits of online, is a superior business model, not to mention the fact that the biggest businesses in the world are invested in continuing to improve efficiency and technology in the area of distribution. I'm sure they will find ways for instance to lower return rates over time and make delivery even faster.
I accept boohoo has challenges, what business doesn't? It's you who for some very odd reason (and with a big dose of conformation bias and cognitive dissonance) want to talk about Primark like it's the perfect business, and has no other future other than being a massive success, yet its share price and sales have been in decline for 4 years. The future is not pre-written. There's a range of probable outcomes, but tho say online retail has peaked is positively delusional.
I thought you were like a joke account when I first read the nonsense your were posting, but evidently your just a nut case.
@daytradenovice -
You say "The fact of the matter is this company is (currently) worth 260p a share, exactly as the market values it"
Well... kind of the point in the stock market is trying to work out where the market is mis-valuing companies
How do you value a company and estimate whether it is good value or not beyond looking at the current price and saying it must be the correct price?
I look at
Return on Capital 25.3%
Return on Equity 25.3%
earnings per share growth of >30%
forward PE estimate of 22
then check analyst reports
Kallu, what you know about analysing anything I could write on the back of a postage stamp.
If you want to bet me directly on whether we've seen "peak online penetration" or half the other nonsense you spout I'll happily take your money.
Small fluctuations in data over a 3 month period does not make an investment thesis.
You seem to miss the very obvious fact that Boohoo is very small vs the total addressable market. Both it and Shein have been taking share off incumbents for some time. The fact new these businesses are employing the business model they are, and positing massive growth rates, should tell anyone reading this what the reality is here. The traditional fashion business model has very little moat, which is why Shein and boo have been able to come in and do what they've done over the last few years. The fact is the likes of boohoo and possibly Shein (depending on what we find out ref esg with Shein) are ahead of the curve in the industry. Sure they are going to compete, but given the head room for both of them so what? You are surely not that much of a crank you think Primark is without competition?
OK - well, good luck!
Analysts have the first four letters in the word for very good reason.
If you value a company simply on their often vested guesstimates then you should just chuck your money down a drain and give up.
The fact of the matter is this company is (currently) worth 260p a share, exactly as the market values it - uncle doug has even less of a clue than an analyst because he bought in higher (as usual)
If you dont understand market forces then please make me a visit, i have a lovely wax crayon in gloss orange that an analyst thinks is worth £20 for sale, its yours for the absolute bargain £15. No takers? i wonder why.
Thinks are worth exacty what someone else will pay you for them. In this case 260.
*The differences of opinion regarding the business on the board should be welcomed, but those trying to guess what the market will are best ignored.*
I agree with the above; although, I wasn't trying to second guess the market, I was suggesting that the analyst predictions look a little frothy compared with where we are.
There is a concern with Shein, but basically it's a combination of all these things you have mentioned . If you add that to the macro market jitters and sprinkle in the logistics issues, you can see why Boohoo is where it is.
There's simply too many speculators taking about short timeframes. It makes me laugh hearing about how a stock "hasnt performed for 9 months". The differences of opinion regarding the business on the board should be welcomed, but those trying to guess what the market will are best ignored.
The general consensus beyond this BB seems to be that at 260p this is a steal. However, the market just doesn't seem to buy that. Perhaps once this court case is dismissed (which I believe it will be) and they sort their ESG out, then this should head north.
Perhaps there's some concern that the growth has stalled due to Shien and other competition.
Here's the analysts price targets since March:
400.00 New-coverage
12-Jul-21 RBC Capital Markets Outperform 380.00 410.00 Upgrade
18-Jun-21 Liberum Capital Buy - 380.00 Upgrade
15-Jun-21 Numis Add - 420.00 Reiteration
06-May-21 Barclays Overweight 530.00 530.00 Reiteration
05-May-21 Berenberg Bank Buy 460.00 460.00 Reiteration
13-Apr-21 Berenberg Bank Buy 460.00 460.00 Reiteration
29-Mar-21 JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight - 480.00 Reiteration
12-Mar-21 Berenberg Bank Buy - 460.00 New-coverage
uncle doug's prediction of 450 doesn't seem too far fetched - also considering the business does
Return on Capital 25.3%
Return on Equity 25.3%
has earnings per share growth of >30%
and a forward PE estimate of 22
I think the current price is what's rubbish, and being around £4 would be more likely based on usual measures
here. Clearly an unloved business with a rangebound sp.
To think that deluded uncle doug spent weeks predicting 450, hope he didnt suck anybody in with such rubbish. GLA