The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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2002/03 Shell/Conoco USA customers in place
2004/05 Woodside Darwin Gas/LNG ready to go
2008/09 Shell lets go FLNG
/
2018/19 50/50 split on Sunrise , everything else inside new boundary 100% TL
/
2019 YOU are the experts , bid round launched, local minnow SG assisting since 2016
surprise get the only other known discovery license Chuditch and offer 100% RTO to
Baron, nepotism related Dr Butlers on each BOD, FAILS take 33% SG 25% Chuditch
/
March 24th Sudden raise to take 85% SG 63.75% Chuditch
March 25th 3rd Timor Leste Oil and Gas Conference attended by 42 Internationals , 228
other companies and another 1,500 registrations for the online IN-VR sponsored event
/
Main presentations previous co-host of the 1st (19 attendees in total ) and 2nd Confrence
SGG High resolution seismic and the secrets revealed
SundaGas , The Chudicth discovery and the wider license developments
/
Raise the day before the event, then more recently feathered the nests of the SG crew
and then themselves recently with Cheapo OPTIONS
Making themselves very rich on the back of an expected sensible decision by a Politician
on a license already previously , drilled , discovered ch-1 well and mapped much bigger
by a frustrated and stranded Super Major SHELL
Hard work if you can get it lol
:))
Can safely say the are in the same boat as investors in waiting for that decision but have
masses of options they do not need to pay for , unlike you and me, if it does not come lol
as said back then , they want to develop all sectors but as have said a few times where does
the funding come from, the Beaco Tasi Mane if they do not get something like China paying
under the BRI they have membership of THEY ARE SCREWED
They factored in the 2 band aids of a possible 30mbo/e extra reserves each MAX at Buffalo / Bayu
on re development drilling and came up with , increasing annual budget planning for Education
Agriculture , Tourism etc (non o/g) they would run out 2028-2038
The Sovereign wealth petroleum fund which had been withdrawn was also returned to the US
Markets to try to add to investment income (like us looking for a 10 bagger lol)
In comparison Sunrise/Chuditch 2,600mbo/e the 2 band aids Buffalo/Bayu 60mbo/e dwarfed
in potential future revenues and taxes
11 new gas charged offshore licenses + 2,600mbo/e v 60 mbo/e to just keep the lights on
seems like a real no brainer, forget (for now/shelve hope for BRI/other) Tasi and take the bird
in the hand option, all license have a % to T/Gap the gov owned NOC revenues + taxes on top
Do no pass Tasi GO and save up to $20 Billion , as for 20 years none of the Local players Woodside
or internationals and the China BRI have shown an interest in paying for and then running it
Oz Gov who generously agreed in 2018 not to issue a license the other side of the new maritime
boundary and siphon Sunrise off from their side and split 50/50 (sits across the boundary) then
later to 70/30 in the Islands favour even if piped to Darwin for processing
All have stated the same not financially viable to go across the deep timor trench to the Island
then Shell invented the on site SUPER BARGE FLNG 24/26 wells feeding which was even more
profitable, so much so even Woodside opted in for FLNG, despite having purpose built their
own Gas/LNG facilities at Darwin for Sunrise by 2004/05? with Shell/Conoco customers waiting
since 2002 already
The game has changed and Gov NOC T/GAP now have rights to 56% of revenues/profits and they
get 70/30 taxes , the default still present operator Woodside still favours the high margin FLNG
Cannot for the life of me see what else the rest of the world can give them and Sunrise still
remains STRANDED and on Woodside books at $0.00
They said FID by 2022 , 56% plus taxes , So much for the words in the 2019 launch of the bid
license round ""you are the experts WE will not interfere""
Time to walk their talk lol
:))
You should have its pretty much the same as several posted and the charts etc same as those
released in the many pages of 2021/22 budget presentations back in April lol
you must be getting , can't remember it that , can't remember memory failing thingy
are you now clearly remembering things from when you where 5 lol
:)
This one pretty good for news on the regional OZ players like Santos/Woodside
you will see very common entries for EARTHQUAKES, no worries they have 50-100+
every year, usually epicentres to the North East of the Island
We are in between Bayu and Sunrise and neither have been affected by them in the
past 20 years, so no reason to suspect Chuditch to be any different, drilled in 1998
and present and correct in 2012/13 when the original Kyranis 3d psTm survey was
done and processed
The new snail paced reprocessing of part 800 sq km (vice entire 3,571 license) in psDm
is part of the psc requirement and SPOILER ALERT , will do the same show Chutidich
was still present in 2012/13 with prettier depth perception than the original
The TGS 2020 2D Cubed (presents like 3D) and covers the entire 50,000 sq km of on and
offshore Timor Leste and as its website states , yours on request to the industry (with a
fee I presume) likewise the entire 9,034 sq km Kyranis 3D
So a bigger player wont be waiting on us for a partial and with the advent of AMAZON's
advertised AWS data crunching service can do the entire license now in A DAY
Woodside ceo tasked his team to bring a 12 month process down do 12 days, even he
was stunned , when the AWS with its equivalent processing power of a stack of laptops
4.2 km high , did the entire Sunrise 3,200 sq km in "" 90 Minutes ""
Tech has taken a giant leap forwards , saving companies up to a year on projects , Woodside
did it late last year and others have followed
The only thing the big players are waiting on to knock on Boil's door is a path to monetise
the assets (currently none) and the 4 involved in the original Sunrise JV , Shell, Conoco
Phillips , Woodside and Osaka spent over $400m by 2010 with processing costs still to add
FLNG super barge , new pipe etc etc
Chuditch mapped by Shell much bigger than current catching up Boil/SG figures which only
cover one side of the license, Shell ""it could be as big as sunrise"" mapped 5 tcf gas and
massive upside to the South West
Sunrise ended up probable reserves of 8 tcf gas and 240mb condensate , valued in operation
earlier this year at $64 - $75 BILLION , Stranded nowhere to go on Woodside balance sheet at
an impressive :(( $0.00 UNTIL permitted GO SOMEWHERE
Make no mistake IF / WHEN that clarity - Green Light given , its not just Woodside balance
sheet that's TRANSFORMED
This really is a minnow , holding a Super Major's asset, nothing our feathered nest directors
can do or influence , ALL in the hands of a few Politicians, the 20 year impasse / force majures
etc etc roll on , or they wake up to the easy Billions in revenues and taxes still sitting on their
doorstep
A never mind a knock on the Boil/SG door , you will have Michael Caine's immortal words
buzzing in your head
Who in the region/Industry with that news , will not want a share of those easy Billions back
in play GLA
:))
https://www.newsnow.
Not seen that one before goldfinger.
Good source of information on current status of TL finances.
They are now spending their savings...
They must change their fortunes..how to do that?
Say no to Tasi Mane!! And yes to offshore processing of billion of dollars worth of natural resources.
GLA
Just keep an eye on these 3 links , all relevant to the Island itself will appear
on one or all 3 of them lol
:))
http://www.laohamutuk.org/
http://www.tatoli.tl/en/category/business/
http://timor-leste.gov.tl/?cat=9&lang=en
GL and good hunting HFB
:))
Sorry the link doesn't work. I think you need to stitch the 2nd line of my last post together with the first. If all else fails try to search for my text link. I'm sure you will find it. Well worth reading
https://devpolicy.org › 2021PDF
Timor-Leste: 2021 economic survey - Devpolicy Blog
Not sure if this has been shared on here previously as I invested only a few months back. I think its a good background read for anyone interested in this week's meeting results in TL. Getting governmental action to plan for future oil and gas income does seem to be a no brainer from where we are sitting. The numbers in this presentation bring it to life.
I hope they make the right decisions for their country.
GS
Thanks again for these detailed links.
I can see that 22 budget preparation schedule fits nicely with the key milestones of the new licencing rounds...
I feel something could boil-over in a, relatively short time.
What is the financial benefit, to the young and relatively poor population, to delay for 10+ years.
It took time, via the PR, voting system to arrive at another coalition government. But they gradually voted for this new bunch of parliamentarians to break the previous idealoligy.
I am banking on gov change of heart.
Coffee, or oil and gas what do you think will happen?
GLA
Lots of other meetings this week as we know but they still held the weekly council of ministers
(Cabinet) meeting this morning , minutes usually lag a couple of days, last weeks was all
covid response stuff, fingers crossed economics on the agenda lol
http://timor-leste.gov.tl/?p=28997&lang=en
The Council of Ministers is chaired by the Prime Minister and includes, in addition to this, the Vice Prime Ministers,
the Minister of the Presidency of the Council of Ministers, the Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs and the
other Ministers
http://timor-leste.gov.tl/?cat=38&lang=en