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Yes...This is one really interesting share and I 'm certainly enjoying the investing.There being a lot going on currently In TL. I'm a COPL and BOIL investor. Been an interesting year! Thank you so much for your share narrative HFB's. Best , Toss.
Hope you have plenty Percy , to me this is the best IF IT HAPPENS I have seen in the past 10 years The last one with so much promise went from 3.25p to spike over £3.30 in 4 market sessions not saying that will be the case this time but
Market Cap sub $10 million VERSUS Asset worth $40 - $80 Billion
think the hoping to have talks in September when the month had already started was SundaGas have been helping develop the Islands own structure T/Gap ANPM since 2016 we now own SG probably meant they knew the shift in the impasse with the Gov announcement was coming but not exactly when 42 IOC's and 223 other companies attended the March event where two of the main presentations where Chuditch and available seismic
Think a good few would have been sniffing around already subject to that all important will we have change to allow sales and monetisation Now that push to produce on the Island is in play best option or not , things have moved would imagine more than a few knocking on the Islands and Barons doors for talks
Was rumour in the local press back in May that Timor Gap had been approached and held talks with a number of top level industry players in the wake of the March conference
as said to me the 9th announcement was the green light they had been waiting for to bolster the bid round before it closes on the 1st October
yes mate disappointing they have gone the in the possible future route again but 25-30 tcf proposal not to be sniffed at , the industries options of Darwin/FLNG could have happened very quickly in comparison
I am now in the camp of hoping we get an early mover and a good take out deal let the majors get on with it , Baron get pushed aside for several hundred million and minted for Peru , Dunrobin and a war chest for new AQ's
before the ninth they would not have been able to push squat now they can and should be promoting to the market
The industry have been watching and waiting for years for something anything to happen as the area known to be prolific Bayu , Sunrise , Chuditch , Kelp and largely unexplored left 20 years behind the Indonseian and Australian Timor Sea developments
But only Bayu ever produced and still does as like Chuditch was an Australian license in the disputed JPDA days and they had developed the field and infrastructure to Darwin and they were not going to cut that one off, turned the taps on 2005 ish and been the major source of revenues and budget for the Island ever since
They are now progressing an option to monetise Beaco and Chuditch included in that report , call me old fashioned but I call that pretty news worth and some progress for the first time in years lol
Very Exciting times ahead for us shareholders. Let's see if we get an rns Monday and/ or the sp starts to climb but that will probably be dependent on news I guess if the pr company can be bothered or not.
if not an outright sale the other routine deal is retain 5-10% + Cash + Free ride Drill/s program still a winner, Baron's accounts nicely flush , no cash commitment until drill program completed
Once that ball is rolling that 10% will ramp up in value with results, if as Shell suspected as big as Sunrise that's still 10% of a life span project worth $60-$80 Billion which could be sold on for another large cash windfall
Shells FLNG plan for Sunrise next door was FFD with 26 wells feeding the super barge for annual production of 4 million tons per year LNG
be it that or the Beaco push succeeds this time at some stage soon things will start to add value and recognise Chuditch has incredible value in motion
A good first step would be to see Woodside put a value on its Sunrise 31.4% holding that they wrote off a bit at a time and finally put it at $0.00 a couple or three years ago
Sunrise was officially put on hold and frozen in 2004/05? that status being changed will also add value to the other regional players like us
nothing was sked for peru and north sea , the Chuditch was always down to a change in the region so that could now happen anyday
pre 9th September gov announcement all gas stranded and worthless $0.00 post 9th positive message to the bidders and industry value should return
Have said for a long time this is nothing to do with Baron its board , seismic or anything other than the Island either Building Beaco or allowing Dawin/pipe or FLNG until such a declaration that $0 value would remain
They have declared want to go full tilt at Beaco Tasi Mane with co development of Sunrise , our Chuditch and Kelp which has currently no operator, no license issued and is the size of the other 2 put together last est 14.5 tcf (monster)
The fact it now states they plan to build , they plan to use Chuditch to do it IS MASSIVE NEWS and should now bring forth serious not mickey mouse offers for JV or outright sale
The goalposts have been moved back to encourage the Majors and upper tiers that left to now return
and we remain a minnow holding 75% of a WORLD CLASS asset previously mapped drilled and discovered by Major Royal Dutch Shell
Bags coming , mega multi bags coming with the right level of JV partner , Sunrise had over $400m spent in development by 2010 and likewise only an upper tier have the pockets to develop Chuditch to that level
If Major's return think most would be happy to be taken out quickly for the right price let them get on with it and Baron sitting minted for years to come Peru , Dunrobin paid for and a war chest for new AQ's
Analysts are expecting a slump so it may be wise to wait before buying shares but cash in now if you need the money if you can wait hold on to your shares.... Stock markets around the globe have been relatively placed as investors have taken confidence from the coronavirus vaccines that have helped economies to reopen but instability could be around the corner..... We need to boil to hurry up if we want to make quick money.....
Shouston your earlier , I agree but it seems now back to the old leaders philosophy , he wanted a full up and downstream industry yesterday and even put it in parliament with a law decree that stated exactly what has gone on the past 20 years it is all ours and we do not need the outside world to interfere anymore , we can do it ourselves despite the industry and funders declining the previous attempts at Beaco
Not my preferred option either Darwin or FLNG options could be put in place quickly so deals would have to reflect that , the its on the move and might be built in 5 years is progress but industry players not likely to pay top dollar at this stage
But even a low ball , on the low Baron catch up figs of 3.5 tcf near on 600mboe and a fire sale at $1 a barrel would be $600m for a take out $450m net to Baron , 45 x current market cap
not to be sniffed at if it ends that way and not a jv