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Not a chance , Baron/sg do not have funds or structure to move Chuditch forwards
Kelp estimated double the size , we are an investing company not an offshore
operator and driller , that will be the player that JV or takes us out IF we get the right
calibre of knock on the door capable of doing the job
Remember Sunrise back in the day around the same Shell developing both and around
5+ tcf plus condensate, their original JV
Royal Dutch Shell
Conoco Phillips USA
Woodside Pet Aus
Osaka Gas Japan
They had spent over $400m in Sunrise development costs according to articles in 2010
that's the pocket money partner we are hoping to get in a JV or takeout of the whole 75%
Shell had spent near on £50m just mapping, seismic and drilling the ch1 discovery well
at Chuditch by 1998 (what would that cost now in 2021 money)
World class asset takes world class partners to develop, best we can hope for is a huge
outright payoff early , or a small retained holding and a free ride first drill program which
if a hit as it should be Shell rated Chuditch COS drilling 100% we would probably cash
in on the result for another big payoff
The prospect of the current crew raising £50-100m+ to support the next development phase
would take a full yam sing of a fine bottle of scotch to wash the confetti down lol
Keep saying the Island have said we want to produce from the previously stranded fields
now all down to the WHO now knocks on the door and the offers available , while production
status remains uncertain, pending studies and Beaco funding being raised
:))
Would be interesting if boil took on kelp.
What would the mc be then lol.
It is also expected that through the newly extended timeline, the ANPM will also participate in again
several international conferences such as the 2021 NAPE and the the 2021 OTC, in Houston, United
States of America, the 2021 Gastech Asia and the 2021 ADIPEC and many more relevant international
events in order to further promote the Timor – Leste Second Licensing Round.
Think that statement on the ANPM website say's it all , we did not get the Majors and Upper tiers we
want to return, extended more time and more events to try and change that in the interim the new
studies should be completed and fingers crossed a funder found this time for Beaco gas/lng export
complex on the Island
imo they will get a funder this time , the financial metrics look way better than the previous attempt
which was all about Greater Sunrise 8 tcf + 250mb Condensate , the previous studies should all
still apply for pipeline and additional infrastructure , so it is only the LNG facility itself that was the
downfall last time, this time an initial plan for Chuditch , Sunrise and Kelp (25-30 tcf) more than
offsets the initial financial outlay to get operational
Was around $16 Billion for all , Suai supply base already being built as is also for the Oil side of
things at Bettano etc, the roads infrastructure is also already under tenders and contract ,the
new Airport seem to have been shelved for a refurb and extension of the current Airport
The new container port has also been recently completed vastly increasing the capacity
for imported equipment and storage for the sector operators both on and offshore
Leaving funding now only required for the pipeline and the Beaco port and facilities so expecting
the new studies to have a lower costing required by a builder and or operator of the facility
with almost 4 times the initial gas base from the coordinated development of the 3 fields to supply
from the get go
:))
Looks like a realistic plan this time vice the wtf are they thinking last time based on just Sunrise
and then whatever may turn up lol costing $16-20 Billion for the whole project that at lower
gas prices at the time would have been lucky to break even over the estimated 5 years to build
plus and following 5 years of production minus the loan repayments to funders required
Not exactly filling the coffers in a hurry and little profit in comparison to Darwin or FLNG for
the Major operators , so it all fell apart , we want , we do not and all frozen for years until the
latest development on the 9th
imo that was a green light signal they are in talks and plan to build not just talk about it this time
they just left it to late in the piece for serious interest to be taken by the Majors due dil etc with
just 3 weeks to closing the bid round
Chuditch a separate and available license, so we should now have serious interest coming from
the previously on the fence sector big boys and the we hope to be in talks in S
That link is the original 1st extension implemented last year as the 50 ,000 sq km
TGS 2D cubed presents like 3D covers ALL on and offshore Timor Leste would not be
completed and available until October 2020 when the bid round closed, extended
to 1st October 2021 and yesterday extended until 2022 to get some big players on
board
As many of us said back in Apr/May they needed to make a statement long before the
bid round closed if not nothing has changed and gas remains stranded and worthless
On the 9th they made a statement pushing for new studies and building Gas facilities
on the Island , broke the not done anything in years but seem to have left it too little
to late to draw them in in time
Chuditch is not part of the bid round so we can still go ahead with talks on the hope
a plan with Chuditch named in it for Beaco (gas/export lng) production goes ahead
They have made a move, said in talks and studies commenced for Beaco the ball is
finally rolling pre 9th WHAT SALES ROUTE post 9th A PLAN IN PLACE
If it fails this time then surely the Industries other options will be allowed
since 2001 pipelines to Darwin available
since 2009 FLNG super barge available
imo we will now have an option available and so an ability to sell gas previously
denied by the Island someone will want our World Class asset before the bid
round dust settles next year GLA
:))
Or are they talking to the major's,
Lol but who knows.
What we all know is the sp will explode at some point which is why I top up every pay day.
Those PR guys must be very busy doing nothing. Like most of the companies on AIM. Busy holding license.
another article re extension
https://info.tgs.com/timor-leste-license-round-2020
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/asia/351116/east-timor-extends-licensing-round-deadline-to-drum-up-more-interest/
East Timor is extending the deadline for its second licensing round in an effort to drum up
more interest from international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs)
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/timor-leste-gives-five-month-extension-for-licensing-round/2-1-1070539
upstream subscription but same as
said in Apr/May they needed to make a serious statement on monetisation of assets or the bid
round would flop , the majors left for a reason and that had to change before they would return
the above article appears to have the same view, the 2nd run at building on the Island with new
studies as said to little too late and so an extension it is
but still think Beaco will succeed this time and our JV/Sale can be advanced while we wait
and see who now comes in on the bid round, as the Island have made the first move with
its plans announced on the 9th (2 x UPSTREAM articles)
:))
same beesty subject to others cooperation but mostly Copl at least doing a couple
or 3 bags will be looking to slice and divert a lot more here if I get the chance before
the main event occurs, at the mo talks should give us a lift but would not expect it
to roar away before an rna message that a deal struck on good/great terms
happy to get them down here but also happy to pay higher current MC sub £10m
versus an asset back in play worth $40-75+ BILLION lower Barons slow catch up
higher Shells old mapping and other leads on the license to the South West
Setting the alarm for snooze
but will post if anything turns up in the local press
:))
The other big factor that is in the new proposal for Beaco (Gas/export LNG) being built this
time is , NYSE listed ENI and Santos have agreed to re use the depleted main reservoir at
Bayu-Undan as a Carbon Capture facility
Last week the Timor Leste joined that party and signed a futher agreement to cooperate on
CC operations, this suggests when Beaco built it will also have the Green future in mind with
Carbon removal at Beaco and shipped to Bayu for storage/capture
That ability might improve Beaco's ongoing prospects for additional supply from the OZ side
of the Maritime boundary also , one or two on that side high co2 and Barossa over 50% hence
Santos plan looking to backfill via Bayu - Darwin , makes sense filter it off at Bayu , sell end
product in OZ ?
If the sector now happy the Island is going to move forwards after 20+ years of dispute, force
majure and no facilities but it has to be processed here, then our Chuditch talks do not need
to wait for the bid round, we have a license , we have exceptionally strong links with Timor
Government assisting self industry development since 2016
We have masses of new and old shell mapping and seismic Shell 2d , Kyranis 3D original
of which we are just the top corner of over 9000sq km 2012 being rerun at a snails pace
currently , TGS 2020 50,000 sq km entire on and offshore region 2D Cubed which presents
as 3D and high resolution (TGS web been available on request for months) CGG the co
sponsors of previous Timor Oil and Gas Conferences also advertise lots of seismic on
request and all available to bidders via the ANPM/Zebra UK data room
If they come for talks they will know what they are looking at for the whole license and
not just the 1998 immediate discovery drill area
No need to wait the Island if somewhat late have opened the starting gate for talks
Just need Baron and its supposed upped PR to pull their fingers out and get on with it
call me old fashioned but Plans for Beaco and Chuditch included in that plan are a
giant step forwards, that they have not been arsed to inform the market of lol
Gas stranded and worthless - Material change Island in talks looking to build Beaco/Pipeline
Chuditch no home to go to----Material change Beaco plan includes Chuditch being processed
Many a scumbag aim ceo delighted to tell people he got 3 shares for the price of 1 on the open
market as part of an annual company scheme buy 1 get 2 free and yet we have movement this
one has always been about the Island and nothing Baron do or say would make a difference
until Timor Leste Gov got the ball rolling
They have spoken , time for Barons sadly lacking voice to do the same and tell the market we
have a World Class asset with a future and no longer stranded = Gas has value , give us some
Mr Market lol
:))
Agreed HFB.
Patience required here for the multi bags result.
Will be topping up again on Monday when it's pay day.
The meat of it all is in 2 articles released on UPSTREAM on the 9th but to read it you need
a subscription , that's hacked off Baron and its in the rns , new PR team have done squat
to inform the market
we are in the plan - Chuditch last in a plan in 2010 , when still an OZ license with Mitra
looking to take it to FLNG , Disputed area , license quashed and became a Timor Leste
license , I posted the link a couple or 3 days ago
The island is looking to build - also a material change moving at last
And the company says squat , we know they would know Sundagas which we now own
100% have been on the Island since 2016 helping the locals to develop their oil and gas
industry creation of Timor G noc / ANPM , presentations lectures and road shows etc
the out of the blue award of Chuditch 2019 appeared to be a reward
Well in with the locals , they would have known after all we have unless something hanging
in the background not got the cash on the books $30m+ for the pre qualification for the bid
round an yet according to one rna message via rns wire we are IN IT !
:))
That is the hope Charlie, after years of NOTHING happening , on the 9th September the
Island made its choice to move again on getting Beaco supported and built and the
plan included Chuditch as part of a coordinated 3 field development to feed Beaco
That's a huge step forwards for both them and us, no facilities = stranded/worthless
the prospect is now that they WILL build and the gas has value once more
Even if it does not succeed , they know they are running out of time , imo Beaco will
go ahead this time on a plan for 25-30 tcf , not just Sunrise as last time (5-8 tcf)
they will have to go with the Darwin/FLNG options which the industry have wanted
to do since 2002/2009
That new light at the end of the tunnel should draw in the big players and as said imo
they left it too late and have extended the bid round to allow them to now do due dil
etc and make bids
Said back in March when things started to wake up again , they would have to give FID
to Sunrise with a plan for processing or something similar to prove they would not be
like shell in the past 2 huge fields and refused permission to monetise when they could
They left it until 3 weeks before the closing date to show a path in motion and they are
in talks and have studies in progress
They where all done before and deemed possible , the financials not good but this time
they do look good 25-30 tcf 3 fields is worth the initial building costs imo
Our Chuditch is not part of the license round so we have no need to delay and can press
on with any talks that may come around on the hope 1 of the 3 options will be available
in time GLA
Patience , Patience and Patience lol
:))
Hfb you insight to this is quite something .
Do you really know this is going on . ?
I have experienced before someone with great insight tell things , and it’s gone to pot .
I’m on your side mind .
PG
forget all that the Island has said no to Darwin since it got independence 2001 and FLNG
since 2009 they have always wanted their own industry NEVER BUILT talked about and
previous studies etc rejected by funders and the Industry, so all gas stranded/worthless
Bayu an exception as it was an Australian license and fully developed with Conoco pipeline
in place , has been the majority funding for the Island since 2005 so they where never gonna
turn that tap off lol
Bettano oil refinery on the south coast for many years and being refurb main source Kitan
oil field depleted some time ago, so ADV redev of old BHP Nexen Buffalo field like Bayu
looking at additional possible probable reserves only will have a home to go to
Bayu next backfill step is Barossa which is Santos and a Korean outfit and lies in Australian
waters not Timor, carbon capture to also come into play at Bayu dump in the depleted main
reservoir , Barossa very high co2 content so all makes sense lol
Of the 3 fields in the new Beaco plan Chuditch even with Old Shell mapping figures is currently
the smallest (only do monsters in the Timor Sea lol) Sunrise 8 tcf plus 250mb condensate
Chuditch 5 tcf plus much upside shell figs or Baron 3.5 tcf just CH1 drill area and the monster
Kelp 14.5 tcf which due to past events currently has neither a license or an operator
Shell developed both Sunrise and in the nineties thought Chuditch across the wider license
could be bigger on full development , so a lot of upside mapped to the south west and a
suspicion the Eastern side ch1 drill area might be one large reservoir in which case
mapping of over 5 tcf for several leads could double if all linked together
All we can do is wait for the knock on the door and see who is prepared to offer what
if the Island get building and give all the other gas fields a lifeline to value
:))
I have noticed that on the AGM RNS and also the recent update, both mentioned the importance of the Darwin LNG plant and infrastructure for monetisation of the Chuditch field.
'The recent uptick in oil & gas activity in the Timor Sea region, including infill drilling at Bayu-Undan (the only producing field currently in Timor-Leste), continues and will be key to the successful evacuation and monetisation of gas from the area. Expenditure of more than US$4.5 billion has been committed to extend the life of existing fields and pipelines, bring new fields onstream, and increase capacity at the Wickham Point, Darwin LNG plant.'
&
'We believe that recent events in the Timor Sea area illustrate the high value potential of Chuditch within this important emerging gas arena:
· acceleration in regional gas development following the Santos US$1.25 billion acquisition of ConocoPhillips' upstream and midstream assets in northern Australia and Timor-Leste;
· infill drilling results by Santos on the Bayu-Undan field in Timor-Leste waters demonstrated high initial rates of gas and condensate production from the Jurassic Plover Formation (the reservoir encountered in Chuditch-1), expected to lead to an extension of infrastructure life'
Lots of mention of this as key as well as (other options - Tasi Mane) - but much less mentioned. Chuditch could be the quick saviour of the Timor Leste economy IMO. JV with a major or takeover, drill and into production quickly to Darwin LNG. Keep Santos plant open, keep the money flowing to Timor Leste while they sort out there Tasi Mane issues / putting Sunrise into production! :)