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Hold some for the main event , which IMO will come this time , they know they are running out
of time , forecasting themselves Skint by 2028-2030 (Bayu and Buffalo band-aids taken into
account both depleted, chasing possible reserves of 30-40m bo/e )
Small fry in comparison to Sunrise 1.6 Billion boe , Kelp 2.46 Billion boe and our own Chuditch
(shell figs 850m - 1.7 Billion boe)
They have initiated studies on using all 3 for development and production together , at Beaco
IF built , that should draw in a funder/operator this time imo, 25-30 TCF to play with followed
by anything new found on the new 11 expected gas charged offshore bid round licenses.
Once Sunrise pipeline built as a hub, also brings the prospect of Australian assets, the other side
of the maritime boundary into play as having an additional backfill option to the Island ?
They will not get a 3rd crack at Beaco , 5 or 10 years down the line, they know its now or never
and if no one wants to pick up the project this time , they will have to let the gas go FLNG or
pipelines backfill (OZ/Indo) or risk loosing out , to the advance of clean green, blue gas energy
projects , already gaining government funding in , OZ, Japan, China and Korea GLA
:))
seismic will not do that , you need to do some historical digging Pablo
Woodside built its own , LNG facilities in Darwin , to process Sunrise , the Island
refused to let them (2003/4 planned production) Shell the operator then invented FLNG
and proposed that for 2008/2009, the island refused permission. So Shell and its
partner USA Conoco Phillips left both Sunrise and Chuditch behind.
Woodside had even , opted for Shell invented Super barge 26 wellhead FLNG as its preferred option
over its own , still waiting Darwin facilities, on site FLNG being a far more profitable option.
The snail paced part license seismic , Woodside did the entire 3200 sq km 3d for sunrise next door
in less than a day, with Amazon computer support , will only show what is already known , Chuditch
is a big and possibly per shell analysis in the 90's, could all be linked and could be double their 5tcf+ rating
at the time.
Sunrise , still with no monetisation path , sits at 8 TCF 1.3 Billion BOE plus another 250mb
condensate, it also sits on Woodside accounts at $0.00 due to that lack of monetisation.
other option have been available for 20 years.
Only the Island making a decision , to allow monetisation one way or another and they are
pressing for as they have always wanted , Beaco Tasi Mane Gas/LNG Export facilities to be
built on the Island , talked about for over 20 years and failed to get funding on their previous
attempt, offered to the players themselves , all declined to pay to build it and operate.
So did the China BRI
The seismic may give an SP lift BUT the real value will only return if the gas has a home to go to
and currently it still does not. When it does Chuditch like Sunrise worth Billions. Sunrise at the
start of the year valued at $65-$75 Billion in operation , with gas prices much lower at the time
As said Sunrise on Woodside books at $0.00, when that changes , Chuditch goes booooooooom
with it, for perspective, Kelp is as big as the pair put together and due to the Islands no processing
options , currently stands with no operator and no license in issue (part of the bid round) and it
has an estimated 14.5 TCF = 2465 mboe / 2.46 Billion boe
Only the Island and a decision , nothing Woodside , Baron or anyone do or say , will un strand
the gas and give it some value, as current Baron playing catch up 3.5 tcf or Shell 5+ tcf and here
we sit with a sub £10m market cap, for either 510 mboe or 850 mboe
The industry and the market , have known this for 20 years, neither will get excited until the
Island give permission , to process one way or another Beaco (building it not talking about it)
or Darwin/backfills , FLNG or even, via the other Timor Sea pipelines, to Indonesian facilities
nearby
Island Decision = Mega multi bags , MC £10M V Asset now worth billions (50-150 bags)
anything else , might give us some uplift , but the real ride will still be pending. GLA
take some along the way BUT hold s
I can see this moving the next few days. Like you say absolute bargain of a price and first 3D results could drop any day now. then we can finally break away from the .1p for good!
under 0.07 is a BARAGIAN.. this will move very quick... I expect over 0.10 on good news... over 0.08 with just more buys...
Seismic re-evaluation will determine whether the asset is stranded or not. If there is more than 5tcf of gas then a floating lng is feasible, specially at today’s gas prices. Otherwise it’s piped to Santos’s lines roughly 100k’s away. Sub 100m is costed around $1million per km. So $100m to pipe to Santos. This is absolutely feasible if there is 3+tcf in the ground.
Fingers crossed , sooner rather than later, we are not at the mercy of the bid round
Chuditch available for talks or take over now.
As for the rest , as I have said since the beginning, it's binary and all down to the Island
making a decision, give the sector a path to monetisation , GAS worth a fortune, or not
and remains worthless, no matter how much we have 3.5 TCF (Baron) , 5 TCF (Shell)
or the seismic confirms Shells 90's theory its all linked and one huge field , 10 TCF
They make a decision, they know they need to and will not get another 5 or 10 years
to give Beaco a 3rd crack, if it fails to find a funder/operator this time.
Fingers crossed , the fact they are pushing hard this time and making statements they will be
skint by 2028-2030 (with Adv Buffalo and Santos Bayu reserves chase factored in- band aid)
Hoping is now hoping , someone will be thinking like I do , one way or the other , that monetisation
path (which ever way it goes) will become available and may take a chance on picking up the biggest
known and available asset Chuditch now, before the bid round etc settled next spring.
Fingers crossed seismic comes soon and confirms , Chuditch know for a long time to be big , is HUGE
and they can no longer hold off , jumping in for a potential 10 TCF / 1.7 Billion boe
Either , will see our sub £10m Market cap left behind in the rear view mirror forever.
The rest will be down to , what deal they are offering, as said before when Shell and CP left
they still got at much lower gas prices , a payoff of $650m for their 56% of Sunrise
We have 75% , of what Shell described as at least as big as sunrise back in the 90's.
A buyout will not be cheap, if the Islands much sought after upper tier /Majors return
and knock on our door.
The other option, would be what they will offer to take the majority and leave us with a
worthwhile percentage to stay , X cash plus free ride drill program etc
To be honest , the ideal would be for them to take us out , Baron minted for years and new
AQ's and Dunrobin/Peru fully funded, just leave Major to deal with the Islands, may or may
not happen Government , no longer our problem lol
:))
How do you see this going hfb ? Will we get news soon do you think ?
https://thediplomat.com/2021/11/timor-leste-is-facing-a-make-or-break-moment/
The quickest way, to make sure that Sovereign PF is bulging to implement those changes,
is to scrap Beaco , tell Woodside to start production ASAP at Sunrise (FLNG/Backfill) and
let the rest , monetise , however they can , as quickly as they can.
Beaco itself, would be a massive drain on the fund , as the funder/builder, will also have to
be paid back with interest.
They have dug in for another crack at getting Beaco built, after talking about it for 20+ years
Build it , or let it flow elsewhere, a decision required , times up
https://i.giphy.com/media/rqSrBWn4xyPNm/giphy.webp
:))