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Point taken Pdub, and thanks for the summary.
My reposted discussion on risks and mitigating factors, just to prove a point!
"Some discussion about risks tonight. I hope those posters have a clear understanding of exactly why the company has been driving towards becoming a low cost, vertically integrated vanadium platform. We are hedged against both high and low V prices and although being dependent on the steel market at present, the company is positioning itself as a leading player in the VRFB market.
They are also expanding the number of production sites, which gives some protection against unexpected events interrupting production at one plant and Vanchem will add significantly to Vanadium production. Diversifying products will avoid dependency on just one market. Their strong drive to cut production costs and increase production helps to maintain strong profitability, even in the current V market.
The political risks obviously exist in SA, but with a new President with detailed knowledge and understanding of mining and seemingly determined to fight corruption and BMN delivering exactly what the President wants in terms of mining as a sunrise industry, then it is not unreasonable to be less concerned about the risk.
The profits generated have eliminated any chance of dilution just to keep the lights on ... the scourge of so many AIM companies. Indeed a significant part of the growth of the company will be funded from profit, with the option for debt financing if necessary. That for me is a huge plus.
The V price is obviously a significant factor. Over the next few years it is unlikely that any significant new supplies will come on stream, and the structural deficit that many analysts refer to should help to drive up V price.
I am sure I could rustle up other risks but whichever way I look at it Fortune and the BoD seem to have most bases covered. That is why I remain so POSITIVE. Not ramping ... just looking at the facts as I know them and drawing my own conclusions.
2019 / 2020 looking very exciting based upon what I know.
Just my opinion."
Poortrader a couple of points.
Please read back through the Final Results RNS. You will find the current Dividend Policy clearly stated. A little bit of research goes a long way. Here is the relevant passage:
"The Company recognises that while the value proposition to shareholders is primarily of a capital growth nature, it will have sufficient cash generating capacity to pay dividends in the future. On this basis the Company's Board of Directors takes this opportunity to announce the establishment of a dividend policy. The dividend policy reflects Bushveld Minerals' commitment to return cash to shareholders while prioritising its stated growth strategy. The dividend policy is based on a free cash-flow pay-out ratio. The Board believes this distribution approach is the most suitable for the Company as it takes into account both growth and acquisition capital expenditure. The Board will review the free cash flow generated by the business, the outlook for business conditions and priorities for capital allocation on an annual basis. The Board is not recommending a dividend for the year ended 31 December 2018."
I think that covers that moan.
The tone of the bb? If you read this bb over a period of days and weeks you will find it to be a fantastic source of information which much debate, including risks and how they can be mitigated. A snap shot from one evening, particularly one that has been disturbed by characters with very dubious intentions and little knowledge or interest in the company, is hardly a representative picture of the quality of the bb.
Discussion of risks? They are frequently discussed and I get a little peeved that some falsely claim that this doesn't happen. It is a lie! However it is not surprising that positives get more exposure. Have you seen what the company has achieved? Eg 2017 company made a loss. That was turned into a $49 million profit in 2018 !!!!! And their future plans are hugely exciting.
I will repost my own assessment of some risks and mitigating factors (nice and balanced). I have posted this twice before, and many others have also considered risks. Just recently there was an extended discussion on SA politics.
Just my opinion.
I do now, though it did meen that I left with a small profit and can now get back in with twice the shares for the same outlay. It has cost me big rises elsewhere however so now I risk all. Haha
You realise that stop losses are a way of painting a 'rob me now' target on your back ?
I use a stop loss and was kicked out when the price started dropping. I have been waiting for things to bottom out before I buy back in.
are you not invested any more then ?
You may. When I was invested here I folowed your trade analysis on a daily basis, your site visit and the various bits and peices about the potential for Vanadium flow batteries, all of which I found useful.
poortrader - can I enquire which page you found most helpful
Poor trader, have you read the last 2 days on this BB. There have been some amazing , informative posts and discussions that you will find hard to compare on any other BB. Then along come the disruptors of this board and people find it hard to be civil to them when they have only on agenda. You cannot have a debate when they twist and turn everything you post or post utter nonsense without any factual basis. I for one will confront them and tell them where to go whenever they appear. Jmo
I have and do, whilest being mindful that you are invested here (not accusing you of bias by the way, it's just common sense to look for opposing views). If the dividend is announced you will probably see the highs you are expecting as it will open BMN up to a whole new group of investors.
poortrader - well this is precisely why we have TBP - I presume you've read it.
I take your point Faramog/SoTRR, and am not questioning that BMN is a good investment (though some clarity around when/if a dividend policy will land would be nice) particularly at these prices. Mine was more a commentry on the tone of this board. As one of the first places a new investor may look they would probably hope to find discussion around pending news, past performance, perhaps even a balanced debate about risks/disappointments. Instead it's more 'you worthless ameba, I was quite the pugalist in my day and will have at you...'
faramog - none of us are selling. The only people selling at present are those trying to screw with the price.
The point is that hindsight is a wonderful tool to have to back up an argument when you want to beat someone with a stick, those who believe it will get to £1/£2 etc were right before when we were 8p and predicted it going up and were being told that "top city brokers" were calling this back to 2p but you don't see LTH banging on about that every five minutes do you?
fair point @poortrader ... still .. show me any company on AIM making more free cash right now and even without Vanchem pretty well guaranteed to keep making a large margin (everything refined can be sold several times over) ...
It is a disappointment that we are not much higher, but I for one am not selling a share any time soon
Equally on the other side there have been people saying this would be 2p/7p/14p in weeks etc take your pick. There are always those who are on the far edges. The price can go either way and hindsight is a wonderful thing.
I have, and was a former holder here waiting to get back in once funds permit. I think its a good company, and the best way of getting into the vanadium game. My point is more around this board, around christmas there was repeated talk of 2-5 pounds per share by the end of 2019 like it was a done deal...the price is now less than half what it was then. Long term, maybe, but still...
There is nothing blind about our optimism. Do a bit of research.
Same blind optimism (what happened to £5 per share?) followed by same snide trolling. Of all of the LSE Boards feels like a cross between a cyber bullying hub and a cult. Haha!