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It is a mere 15% going but the current rate the price per $kg is rising. We're in an extremely strong position here, you even mentioned the facts. 100% more profit from such a small change. :) Less focus on the negative aspect, enlighten yourself to the position we're in.
Have a good Sunday!
'A mere 15% increase in FeV' from $35 to $40 would lead to about 100% more profit at current costs so it is significant.
I hope I'm right, but I think we just need more time and need to be a little more patient. We've just been through/going through the biggest economic disaster in living memory, but looking on the bright side, with literally the whole world being behind making the world a greener place then we could be on the cusp of an exponential period like nothing we've ever seen before, and BMN is perfectly positioned for this.
I think fortune has been laying low for good reasons, only time will tell.
Calamari "my indicator for buying BMN is not the share price, it's the Vanadium price. Last year BMN fell as low as 8p, I didn't buy it then and I wouldn't buy it now at 8p. I'll think about buying when FeV is over $40/kg."
You can't be serious. Isn't FeV currently about $35? Are you saying that a mere 15% increase in the FeV price would allow you to think about buying a BMN which you wouldn't buy now at 8p?
That seems very timid.
Chip on their shoulder*
Pesky phone.
Just catching up with the BB myself this morning :)
It appears we have a growing divide between the group on this page. On one side, we have the positive bunch who try to cut through the mud and offer reason and future potention whilst aknowledge the fact that it's not all sunshine and rainbows. Then we also have a group who call for change, and quick resolve by floating the idea for the BOD to change hands, ect. Due to their negative opinion on the company, and fair enough, we're all allowed an opinion.
Me personally, I'm in the first group, cutting through the mud and seeing what's shining. But ill try my best to keep this brief message fair.
I see both sides of the story here, obviously I see my side, but I also read and understand the opposite side. I agree that something needs to be done, some things need to be addressed and we would obviously like answers, that's the bread and butter. But I do truly believe Fortune Mojapelo is the CEO we need behind the desk. I understand rumours and over shared predictions can get ahead of ourselves at times, but that's all they were, rumours and predictions. Not caused by Fortune himself, mearly a deconstruction of his words and finding what sticks.
Although, I did have a chuckle at a message left on this page about 'measuring the size of his smile, or how he looked at the camera'. As, I think these Hidden Messages within Fortunes interviews to be mostly dreamt up ideas.
But into the things I truely disagree with on this page,
The fact of the matter, nobody can share an opinion, weather it being something your agree with or not. Without being called a ramper, deramper, patronising troll, ect... You see my point.
We're all here for the same reason, weather people have been here longer or shorter - I don't care personally, you could of bought in yesterday and have an average of 15.5p, but your opinion is still as valid as mine. But the fact of the matter is, we all have the same formal information in front of us, read what has been formally released, don't get ahead of yourselfs, don't over expect and certainly don't give people a chin on their shoulder for opening discussion.
Calamari, I never post on a share that I'm not invested in because it is pointless. I have no agenda which sort of questions why you continuously do, I really find it odd. I won't lie though because my true belief is that you do have an agenda. Anyway, good luck with your investments factual and fictional ones.
That’s great, it’s important to know when you comment that you aren’t invested.
Plus you are looking for a buying opportunity so I am grateful you answered honestly.
James, I have been stating most of what you have covered, especially the tight margins as being one of the main reasons for the suppressed sp. I would add that there has been a general distrust and scepticism from past projections regarding failed production targets and the various initiatives that have been pushed back (JSE/Electrolyte plant, dividend,etc.).
We have to hope of an increase in the price of V, we know demand is there and expected to increase. The selling down by ii’s is more than unhelpful, not a lot we can do about it. We will have to see if there is anything further from Acacia. We also have to watch for movement on the Orion cln’s, a few comments around this today.
Think you are right James.
Institutions lending to AIM companies always want a guaranteed and quick return. It is pretty much normal behaviour in most lending. Turn the money around and put it back to work on the next deal. They are not holders seeking dividends or long term SP growth. Make more by turning over deals.
Just catching up on the BB and some interesting points today.
To keep things simple, with V at $35, our broker forecasts for 2021 demonstrate very marginal profit just above breakeven, and that was before the lower guidance and higher cost base was provided in the revised guidance this week.
This is what the market is seeing in my opinion and why we are current 15p.
I would argue that there are other factors that I feel are contributing to this current downward trend:
- we are sat on AIM and this market attracts short term traders looking for a very quick return.
- there are large institutional sellers in the background over a sustained period (why?).
- General lack of interest/ low volume in the share.
No doubt there are many on the sidelines waiting for news or a change in the short term trend.
However I believe the overriding factor is the tight margins at current V price are the main reason the SP is where it is.
Without Battery contracts, the only way north from here this year is the V price continuing to rise, which is obviously outside of the Company’s control.
For what it’s worth I personally think V will move up beyond $50 in the short term and the SP will follow, but it’s just my opinion.
I wondered why every post he does is negative, surely you can't be that sad to post on different boards guff all the while. Does he not have a life?
He's a swing trading bottom feeder, his avatar is very apt.
He might have a punt next week, you will know if he has when his negativity changes to positivity.
Ok then Calamari, are you invested in BMN then?
Hypothetical, not aimed at anyone Pdub, please reverse your offence. I don't believe BB messages change anything otherwise all the hype on here for the last two years would have arrested the fall...we have all seen what happens if a ramp crew gets going however so I stand by my comments.
If you go back far enough I was all roses and joy but like many many investors am now sick of being in the red with ever extending leadtime until hoped for recovery. The market speaks as to how Bushveld is viewed and valued and that is made up of far more than the 100 or so people on this board. We cannot change anything, only the BOD can. I BELIEVE BE is misunderstood by the market and we are punished for this. I may be wrong of course.
Fyi I still have all my shares and have not sold, I do not trade and just want to see fair value that's not always 3 years away.
Bassguy you cheeky young man. How dare you patronise shareholders that hold a more positive view than you do by writing this cr*p: “ … and no rampy chat by LTH will help unless some pump crews latch on for a bit.”
Express your opinions about BMN by all means. Don’t insult others just because they aren’t as negative as you.
At least I am doing my bit to support my investment. And for the record I only write what I truly think. Try looking up the meaning of the word ramp. Don’t apply it to everyone who expresses a positive opinion.
And how do you know what impact opinions expressed on this bb have on sentiment and therefore the share price?
The market does not get the BE story as little value has been shown.
Previous profitability has been burned on massive expansion to in theory feed the BE story, which has not been explained yet so many market participants see this as a big issue.
The market sees a miner that has loads of debt now and increasing costs.
The company needs to generate some excitement, make the story clear, show how BE will make money selling Vanadium at fixed prices to suit the VRFB market (no one has explained what happens if V prices go higher and we effectively subsidize battery makers instead of profiting from the raw material sale to a higher priced steel market, I assume leasing but again nothing clear yet?)
Once this story is clear enough for everyone to understand and money stops moving around in the background, selling stops, company structure and ownership are clear etc and the market can understand the value proposition we will find a true value, until then we are in limbo and at the mercy of AIM.
Only the BOD can fix this and no rampy chat by LTH will help unless some pump crews latch on for a bit.
There are so many unanswered questions 're Bushveld energy it is in my opinion a millstone around the neck and will be until all is made clear.
I am hoping we have something next week as there must be a reason for a Crux interview other than rehashing the same repeated interview from the last three years talking about vague potential. I want meat on the bones around BE, what it will do and how it will make money...with a timeframe. Time for the BOD to support shareholders and stop the opacity without apparent result. Am I the only one getting uncomfortable with the big shareholder movements, do they know more than we do and sooner, if so who reaps the rewards and who suffers?
Gla
Why on earth would anyone forward sell CLN shares at 17p for a loss?
None of the CLN's have been converted into BMN shares so far otherwise we would have been told about it by RNS.
Yes, I know that they can be forward sold, but Philip Clegg, the portfolio manager at Orion has stated
"Orion is delighted to become a cornerstone investor in Bushveld. We have been attracted to the quality and growth profile of Bushveld's portfolio of mining and processing assets for some time, and we also recognise the leading role that the Company has assumed in the supply of crucial raw materials to the vanadium redox flow battery industry. We are looking forward to partnering with Bushveld as it continues on its growth trajectory and supporting the Company as it realises its full potential."
I know they're only words but there's nothing to indicate otherwise so far.
The expansion of Enerox to 30 MW / year going to 150 MW /year along with the initial electrolyte plant capacity of 200 MWh / year are great and both need to happen ASAP. But these numbers are not big when referencing the multiple storage projects in the 25 MW to 500 MW and upward. Anything in the GW size totally dwarf these plants. Point of reference - many transmission to distribution substations are in the 25 MW to 50MW and larger range and they are everywhere.... So with the probable demand for VRFBs exponentially increasing, IMO BMN/BE need to go bigger with outside funding/partnerships, unless they want to stay in the small micro grid and limited grid storage end of this future market. Definitely a crossroad period.
I’ve been in BMN since 2016, average is now around 18p.
I cannot understand why I am not seeing the CLN’s at 17p mentioned, there is loads of them and it will take ages to burn through them at current rates.
This is why many are seething at the downbeat behaviour of fortune, I do not advocate ramping and the like but we can be more upbeat than we are being. I see medium to long term value maybe shorter term if v price really takes off or some other positive news arrives. People are frustrated because it could be so much better than it currently is, that’s all.
Thanks Pdub.
I’m a relative newby to BMN - invested over the last few months only. I’m slightly below water at the moment (av price 16.8), but I believe there is a long-term play here. I can’t really comment on what’s happened over the last few years, but it feels as though there is quite a lot bubbling away under the surface here which could dramatically alter perceptions for the company.
WIth all these things, sentiment plays a big factor in that. How much of that can be impacted by better messaging is subjective and just because some have a certain opinion, that doesn’t make it fact. We could be looking at a very different marketplace in 12 months and a share price quite a bit higher than this. Alternatively, we may still be hearing complaints about lack of progress and poor communication. For those who have a reasonable timeline and patience, I can see a decent rise in the future - however, calling the timing is a mugs game IMO.
I wonder if we have all got a little ahead of ourselves over Bushveld Energy. The opportunities for this division are exciting but are we so caught up in this that maybe we have developed unrealistic expectations over timelines (yes yes I know that BMN have played a part in raising those expectations but they don’t control the speed of development of the market despite ingenious collaborations with other companies).
Fact is that the revenue generating part of the business is dominated by sales to the steel industry. We have (uniquely) two primary production plants supplying the vanadium to a market that according to many analysts is growing and placing pressure on the supply chain. China now a net importer.
We have witnessed a slow but steady growth in the V price and from what I read no one in the business expects this to stop soon.
We should now see increasing production following investment and refurbishment at Vametco and Vanchem whilst at the same time prices for the product continue to rise.
Greater production numbers will also reduce fixed costs and therefore profit margins are likely to rise (significantly if V prices rise quickly and / or over an extended period of time).
We can debate PR all we like or waste time analysing the tone of Fortune’s voice or the width of his smile. End of the day what will really matter is delivering the business ... and in terms of working towards greater and more efficient V production they are most definitely delivering.
The last V spike generated huge profit for BMN. I don’t think anyone expects the V price to reach that level but BMN now produces more Vanadium than at that time and the production at Vanchem is 100% owned. I anticipate a marked increase in profit going forward if the events I have described play out.
And that is without a $ earned from electrolyte production or BE contracts!
I believe I have the right to be even more frustrated than most of you with some slippage in timings. The BoD must take some responsibility for that but some factors like Covid, interruptions to power supply, very rainy weather, SA Govt dithering, slower growth of the VRFB than some hoped for, etc are beyond their control.
We also know that the sp has been hit by Covid, at least 2 institutions selling down, some shorting, some pi’s exiting and no doubt games played by mm’s. Again whilst I am sure there is more that the BoD could have done to support the sp, these factors would still be very difficult to fully overcome.
Some of you appear to be unwilling to accept things as they are any longer. That is your choice. I still see tremendous potential for investors in BMN. Whether time is on my side to benefit from that I guess we will find out later.
All just my opinion.