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re: the leasing model removing real time pricing - It does and it doesn't - fledgling industry, no futures or secondary resale market (for repossessions resulting from non payment or business failure / closure) that give a value for the used product that can then be used for the residual value figures to set the front end lease repayment costs. No underwriter of the product who guarantees the future value to provide security in the lending and leasing chain - expect toe dipping and price scale adjustment, powerful underwriter required.
We have been told that at end of life the Vanadium can be reverse engineered and sold into the rebar market so providing a residual value - these facilities and reseller's do not yet exist, nor will they be required for 20 years, so without a futures or secondary market again hard to quantify ?
Demand for Vanadium remains low - Again it does and it doesn't - the first major mover into the Vandium and VRFB space was China, when prices were low and supply was plentiful they announced a programme of rebar and then large scale VRFB development - when prices rose China did what it likes to do with resources outside of its direct control and that is bring its pricing mechanism within its sphere of influence, this is currently being achieved.
The increase in volume in a few years will let everyone eat very healthily from this new industry, especially us, we will produce V flakes for rebar , provide offtakes , electrolyte, etc etc
So bit of a chicken and egg with the demand, I think due to supply and price issues the demand has been scaled back.
Once everyone has taken a bit of a kicking on price and corrected their models to be able to run on higher volume lower unit price you will see what this can do..
For us we need East London up and running, vanchem all the known new bits...
Either they don't fully understand what it all means or they know full well and with the new 7 Nov deadline will try their best to drive price and pick up a bunch of cheaper shares ready for 1. Confirmation we have the full Mokopane Mining go ahead and 2. Confirmation Vanchem acquisition completed on 7 Nov. Hate to pour cold water on this week's events but we aren't quite there yet...
Finally if Vaneck need to buy more shares then their order could be forcing sells at the 27 mark which will turn into buys at a higher price later on. Again they need to act fast in face of new date.
'With this acquisition, the Company will have two quality primary processing assets producing a complementary suite of products, with a four kiln configuration, that gives it unmatched production flexibility.'
Positive updates, we have just had two one the mining licence and now the purchase of the plant to send ore from the licence site. the plant acquisition has 2 or three kilns so the plant can keep running while one is updated then the next and so on
@jogj99. True. I'm beginning to think we will only see anything like true value when we see increased production being definitively converted into sales and revenue. The market seems reluctant to acknowledge that these will almost inevitably follow the steps that are being taken to build production capability. Come on BE we need some really positive updates!
coffee cups. good post, and I take on board what you say. 2 points - First, the V leasing model renoves real-time V pricing from the VRFB coatings. Secondly, clearly demand for Vanadium remains low (as reflected in V prices), so, with the extra ore (mokopane) , kilns (vanchem), and the 4500mtv production target due Nov 2020, will all this 4500mtv have a sakes market ? i.e. will we see month on month increase in profits during this low V demand phase?
Expert - thats true - but so what ? if you are buying to see a reasonable gain in a stock that has volume/ liquidity that you can buy and sell on the AIM market BMN is very fit for purpose , if you want to do some lazy investing and buy them and leave them alone to increase in value without trading - again BMN very fit for purpose.
The V price doesn't need to increase as that will drag in competitor resources i.e stone coal / niobium etc all it needs is to increase production volumes (MOKOPANE/VANCHEM ) and sell into the VRFB market and supply China with its rebar requirements which are in structural deficit and why not being as actively pursued by the Chinese ... no point them telling construction or large scale battery projects to use V when there isn't enough to go round yet or the price was too high.
I for one am happy with a lower V price as it allows for the introduction of VRFB which will be the real money spinner over the next few years. It is very much a case of a little bit of short term pain for considerable long term gain.
I agree that it keeps money in the pot for further investments and developments, but to me it says they and the sellers do not see a recovery soon in the vanadium market otherwise why the reduced price. Profits still there to be made, and BE need to start generating the profit we all hope it can. VRFBs need to gather momentum and become the battery of choice to see BMNs profits rocket
Usual AIM short term reactions by the market makers looking to flush out traders over the past few days. Likely counting on the fact that they believe all the news has now landed and if traders profits are hit they will sell up and move on, also gathering any stop losses set over the last few days rise. Once they have their pound of flesh we will move on.
$14.5m saving on the deal, only $23.2m (30m-6.8m deposit already paid) coming out of our cash reserves leaving plenty to carry out improvements in capacity at Vanchem, Vameto and also get Mokopane moving along!