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There were multiple placees as part of the 150m. Who out of them might be disposing of shares, and how many they have actually disposed of, would be near impossible to know. There has been very recurrant selling behaviour throughout the course of 2019, that has continued this year so far too. How many of those sells can be attributed to a tame seller again very hard to know. All I know is that it can't and won't last forever.
I may be very dense here, but has there been evidence of an overhang ? I recal Alfa showing some numbers that explained a possible hold back, but unlike Erongo who we knew were selling, do we actually know how much of an actual 'overhang' there is ?
I know I am inviting abuse ... but been a long tiring day and my brain just won't click it out...
Bet Alfa does :)
Of that 150m share overhang, do we know how many are left to clear?
An increased P/E ratio is entirely justified and reasonable. We'd transform into tech company with multiple income streams, rental agreements, additional raw materials in the ground.
The days of shorting and MM manipulation are coming to an end. Maybe not tomorrow. But soon. A dual listing, combined with a move to the FTSE (possible the FTSE 250) and that 150m share overhang clearing could be like getting 3 sevens in a row on a fruit machine.
Alright fine, i'll post my valuation if no one laughs. 20x current market cap is 4840m. Assuming same number of shares stay in issue, let's divide 4840m by some reasonable PE like 20. That makes 242M of earnings needed to justify this 20 bagging. So 20x current SP is justified. Quite simple but works for me!
well HaleSpur, 2-3 years ago there was talk about 25,000 Tonnes production as a kind of extended phase 2/3 with more to come ...
Since then the wake up call has been how technically challenging it is to produce so much to a high quality .... but given the likely VFRB size (what what is ... $660B over 20 years for battery storage), I would not bet against that being an intermediate production target (5-7 years).
It is normally RK who leads the positive wave, but Nija got in with a great post earlier.... I don't see it as ramping, more preping the newbies for the scale to come. Last year a back of the fag-packet set of leasing numbers were done... it does not take a genius to see just how much revenue and how much cash profit will be involved.... only then do I see the lazy bolly-swillers take any notice at all.
Not sure it would take 5 notes for me to part with my golden tickets right now ... but well north of a quid for sure !
Here's to a Blue Blue week !
VV .. with ya there .... Red Rose forever !
@ninjamagic good post and I see you mentioned coronavirus. That's why it was important to post the earlier message titled "Anglo Pacific Optimistic On Coronavirus Impact On Commodity Prices". This week has been a bloodbath already for many stocks based on coronavirus fears, however as with any perceived fear it will be seized on and used as justification for MM's moving markets down.
Although at first glance the casual viewer might question what this has to do with BMN, here you have a commodities investment company saying the coronavirus is not having any material impact at this time.
So cutting out some of the less worthy content of the article, we could be left with this as the key takeaway:
"Anglo Pacific Group PLC on Tuesday said the coronavirus has not yet had any negative impact on the company's operations. Anglo Pacific, which invests in mining royalties, has investments in a number of commodities such as vanadium. The company said spot prices for its commodities have held up well so far in 2020.
Whilst it is too early to form a view as to how events and markets will evolve for the year as a whole, the immediate impact of the coronavirus on the commodities they are exposed to has been mildly positive as Chinese steel smelters have continued producing."
Original article for reference: https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1582631497829866700/anglo-pacific-optimistic-on-coronavirus-impact-on-commodity-prices.aspx
This is not to say that the virus situation is under control by any means, but at least we have a company directly investing in commodities stating it isn't really affecting pricing negatively at this time.
Hopefully this will also be confirmed by BMN in the next update, particularly as they have stated before we sell only a small piece of our production to China. Even so, if the widely held belief is that China is understating the impact on it's own industries turns out to be correct that could even lead to an uptick in imports to cover production losses as factory outputs ramp up. China is already implementing a stimulus package.
Just to ask the more informed, how much does everyone think this company could potentially bring in, in earnings, in the future? I don't want to embarass myself by speculating personally but I know some of you big brained guys must have educated guesses floating around
£5 is a fair valuation if we are producing 8400mtV and off take being sold to China from Mokopane. On top of that 800MWh of electrolyte per year being produced and leased/sold in 4 years time.
If they then say the profits from battery company minority interests can just go on a share back as we don't need the money that would be great :)
Just to annoy people ramping , how much will we be worth when Mokopane gets a standalone mine!
We need a party venue setting for when this thing gets to over a £1, a posher venue with free bar for £3+ and Buckingham Palace for £5!
I'm in Lancashire so anywhere but Yorkshire ;)
Ninja, that was definitely one of the most positive and encouraging posts I've seen on here, so kudos to you for that. I too would love to see an absolutely massive rise again. I also think we can achieve at least 20x the price currently! This is my largest holding by far!
Well I wouldn't have gone if you hadn't been so enthusiastic and twisted my arm.
As you yourself said you can't be in the conversation if you are not in the room - similarly you can't benefit from understanding how VRFBs are going to change the energy transition if you're not invested in them. Bushveld is the way to invest in an entire industry.
I was gonna mention that I went with you, but I thought it would be vulgar to namedrop ;)
It's also worth adding to the timeline:
- Lemur - sold off. Special dividend / cash used for something
-JSE Dual Listing
- ESKON Tender opened, submitted and a proportion won in BEs favour.
- Share overhang cleared.
ninja - I well recall that trip, it was great fun and good to get out of a freezing cold blighty. Even better to see just exactly what Bushveld is building with one's own eyes.
The trouble is that it would not be possible to do such a trip now, there's too much going on with mine developments, Vanchem processing plants, the electrolyte plant, Mokopane and now to top it off the VIP investments in Cellcube/Enerox and Avalon/Redt - it is quite literally mindblowing.
The one great pleasure I will take in the future though is that the short-term city spivs who managed to parachute in at 10.3p and who have been selling down for the last year, won't be around when we are valued in the pounds.
FM invited me in person.
Oh my gosh do I want a Vametco pen! You utter b’’stard Sir :)
Out of interest how did you wangle the invite
A Vanchem mug sounds good to...indeed THE Vanchem mug, I bet tea would taste great.
Gla
I have been a shareholder in BMN since they were merely an iron mine and an idea.
£5 a share is my carefully considered T/O valuation. Allow me to explain my findings.
In 2018 we touched 48p. Several brokers (3 of which I met in person) all told me that they gave zero value to Bushveld Energy. Nobody understood it. Many still don't. MM's definitely don't.
But - with all the different future revenue streams and increased assets, vertical integration, we should easily be 10x more than we were. How did I get that figure? Fortune Mojapelo said so.
"But the price of vanadium has come down" I hear them cry.
Yes it has. But we're easily twice the company we were when we were at 48p so todays SP price is irrelevant.
So. £4.80 is our fair price.
But when the inevitable period of consolidation comes, it will come at a small premium. Hence £5.00.
Maybe £5.28.
Of course, it seems mad that the SP could be valued at 30x what it is now. But it's not really when you look at all the seismic shift away from fossil fuels that is happening right now. We are trying to avoid cataclysmic destruction after all. Big problems. Big solutions. Blah blah blah.
DYOR. I did. I went to Vametco. I've even have the notebook and pen. How many trolls and shorter have been there?
None. Zero. Nada.
They're all too caught up in the daily vanadium prices and corona virus fears to think big. And if any of you remember what your driving instructors told you when driving on the motorway - steer the car off into the distance, don't steer it looking at the nose.
Good luck.