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Alfa. My post was not clear. I do believe that demand likely outstrips normal production but due to the high prices I believe other production has been turned on from random by product stockpiles around the world. I can’t imagine these are very profitable at today’s prices and they will turn off at some point but that will be evidenced by a further rise in V prices. If prices don’t rise I look forward to terry Perles view at year end about why things didn’t pan out like he expected.
The vanadium market is notoriously opaque and what is or isnt possible within the production space is not easily understood. Remember that traders have their own self interests, and their own agendas, so not all reports can be taken at face value. Alsp remember that rebar production is increasing by large amounts in many countries, China and India in particular, alongside vrfb uptake this will ensure a constantly growing and string demand for Vanadium. The notion that Expert insinuated, that BMN would not even be able to sell all that it produces, is frankly absurd.
Utter nonsense from all the regular BS artists on here. I am disappointed by you qwertyqwer though.
Have a look at the Vanadium price in the last 20 years. There have been 3 speculative spikes driven by Chinese rebar regulations and taken advantage of Glencore. After the 2008 one the V2O5 price fell to 6 USd/lb and then further fell to sub 3 USD per lb. Today it is above 9 USD per lb. Post 2016 the Vanadium price has shown a strong recovery that is indeed very good evidence of a structural deficit.
For the
Expert, how's the 3m shares that you never had?
supply and demand...... BMN moving from 3500 MTV p.a. to 10,000 MTV p.a. does.not.mean they will sell it.all. there has to be the demand. Here lies the other risk besides V price.
Didn't SP Angel's last note still have a 90p target using long term V price of $45? Or it might have been 92p.
Anyway good article and nice to have a balance against some of the scattier claims that get bandied around from time to time.
were, indeed Mr Perles got it very wrong. Fact: Vanadium is a notoriously volatile stock. Now 3 rapid spikes since 2000 have rapidly fallen back. And this time around it is no different contrary to being shot down a number of times from the Terry Perles fan club of this BB. No doubt, V prices will rise at some point (as I said above, notoriously volatile). But mass take up of VRFB is not this year or next year. 5 - 10 years is my view. But I am,glad I saw this useful article. it explains a lot.
Interesting indeed. I have thought for a while now that supply of V must be plentiful for such a sustained drop in V prices. Terry Perles got it very wrong but this is good news for VRFB and hopefully prices will remain below $60 for many years to come. Once BMN production increases and costs fall it will be able to deal with lower V prices even better and I hope this also kills off the chances of other V mines getting built around the world. The SP is still undervalued but the near £1 price target by our broker is way out of reality in the short term. I expect the mining business will be worth 50p in the medium term and the VRFB business hopefully worth in the £’s over the coming years.
To be fair to the 'bulletin board experts' as you refer to them, their source of information is industry experts who mainly called for a supply deficit in what is a very opaque trading market. The ability of the Chinese to raise production as well as the, what appears to be, very limited adoption of the rebar standards (look at the increase in rebar production) combined with the higher than expected niobium substitution has taken most industry observers by surprise.
The game is not over, however, as the long term deficit is mainly centred around VRFB adoption. Lower Vanadium prices in the medium term should encourage adoption which should feed through to Vanadium consumption.
The end game is a much higher level of consumption and supply to create a more stable and transparent market. We are very far away from this currently.
A really interesting article which makes sense and clarifies a great deal for me.
chips, very interesting story, primarily for the fact it contradicts the BB forum census that there is a world huge V deficit, aided by the Vanadium expert Terry Perles analysis earlier this year. We have seen 3 huge V price spikes since 2000 (last year obviously the 3rd). Each V spike has resulted in a fast fall back down to nominal levels. however, the BB experts have been telling me this time around (3rd spike) there remains a huge deficit and huge demand. now, this article does not exactly suggest that.
Not sure if this has already been posted. Interesting read.
https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3889324/FOCUS-Oversupply-will-continue-to-cast-shadow-on-Chinese-vanadium-market-in-H2-2019-sources-say.html