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In August 2019 Sandra Kennedy, Commissioner at the Arizona Corporation Commission in response to the severity of Lithium Ion Battery fires and explosions commented that:
“The energy stored at a 250MW facility is equivalent to 215 tons of TNT. Also, large amounts of Hydrogen Fluoride could be released and dispersed that would affect and harm the public at a substantial distance downwind. There would be concerns about the lingering Hydrogen Fluoride contamination in the affected areas.”
Agreed FB, reading them once is more than enough.
It's like having inner harmony back, trolling away and wishing everyone all the best as he is busy hoping for bad luck for long term holders.
I might want to slam my old boy in the car door
@FR101, and usually postscripted with "my opinion" or "dyor"
"but mass take up I am thinking 5 years away from today"
Shhhhh everyone, expert is thinking........................
Expert, have you got any other unsubstantiated claims that we could all base our investments on?
Expert I asked you to give links to your sources. Now please answer the question. Evasion will inform everyone reading your answer all they need to know.
If you have no sources then your comment begins to look highly dubios.
did you actually read wot I wrote earlier on Expert ?
Psub, let's touch base with each other every 6 months and see how things are going. By the way, how is the Teery Perles 2019 V price re rate coming along?
@Pdub, based on the usual rates of progression for new technologies, VRFB will be into it's third or fourth "instar" by then.
Ophidian
Expert would you please give links to articles or informed comments that indicate VRFB take will be 5 years? I hope you are not just making this up based upon no evidence whasoever. That would be highly misleading.
So evidence please. And I don't expect just your unsupported opinion.
Expert remind us how much your paid to short BMN?
@Expert ? - you're really not.
Ophidian
SOTR, agree new demand for V products is needed. VRFB uptake will hopefully follow, but it appears initial systems (small scale) are based on the Tesla Lithium battery type storage tech. no doubt VRFB will come..... but mass take up I am thinking 5 years away from today. ok for those happy to sit back and relax and wait.
If people are looking at BMN increasing production to 10,000 tpa and assuming they need a market to sell it all to I really wonder what attention has been paid to the company strategy over the last few years.
For me it is clear, BMN have no intention of increasing production to 10,000 tpa and selling this the same way they do now. The increased production is targeted solely for VRFB electrolyte and ultimately VRFB units supplied by Bushveld Energy. It is not going on the open market to steel producers it is going to move sideways to Bushveld Energy before being sold via leasing mechanisms that historically haven't existed.
Any trader working on the basis that BMN will suddenly contribute to a future oversupply in the historical Vanadium market is going to be burnt.
Ultimately the success of this will depend on the market being there for the volume of VRFB/electrolyte that is being predicted. Based on what we already know and can see with already announced projects and the clear unstoppable march towards 100% renewable supply around the globe, demand is going continue to outstrip supply regardless of how much production BMN can throw at the problem.
or looking at it another way - about 8% of global production...……
Ophidian
But remember the Dalian 800 MWh VRFB is not the only thing going on in China:-
https://twitter.com/BMNperspective/status/1149255853347868672
Ophidian - we the usual multiple is 5000 Tonnes of Vanadium per GWh of energy storage capacity. So 800MWh is 4000 tonnes of Vanadium, but V2O5 is only 56% Vanadium by weight so you would need 7142 Tonnes of V2O5 to get 4000 Tonnes of Vanadium atoms.
Dailan...... a lot of V2O5....but it's not affected V price. so, not enough is the answer
Remind me again how many Tonnes of V2O5 that Dalian Battery needs...…
Ophidian
Alternatively , perhaps China has put out dis-information to try to talk prices down?
No oooo They wouldn't do that would they!!
The bit that additionally interests me in all this is that traditionally in the "lulls" in commodity pricing like we are seeing now for Vanadium post a big rise and fall. Having tried and failed to see additional volume come into a market to meet demand, there is usually then a period of consolidation that see's the minnows taken out for critical mass by the bigger fish. We may just be peeking at this with both RedT and IRON in their different ways. Don't forget the genius of Fortune and our Board. They bought Vametco at the absolute nadir in the cycle and now off the peak they are acquiring Vanchem. They got Brits for a song in the doldrums too. Our Board are ahead of the pack - that usually shows who is the healthiest...…..Further consolidations in the production space would not surprise me...….
Ophidian
My tuppence worth:
At current V prices, BMN is still profitable.
At current V prices Vanadium batteries are well placed to start being significant in the energy storage market.
So, long term the demand for vanadium will rise, a massive uptick in the price of vanadium will dent the battery market, so what you need is a miner who can meet increasing demand.
Hmm, lets have a think, where will we find one of those?
qwertyqwer - oh I think things panned out EXACTLY as Terry Perles expected. 13 months ago he told me that he expected prices would go above 130 USD/Kg V and guess what he was exactly right.
Nobody in their right minds could then predict precisely what would happen after that. It's just like being able to predict that a toppling tower of dominoes is going to fall over but not being able to determine exactly where every single domino will come to rest.
There is a modicum of merit in your hypothesis @Qwertyqwer25 it is the turning an Oil tanker syndrome. When Vanadium prices were sky high, many small expensive projects will have looked viable and some will have achieved funding. It is just like shale oil wells in the US. When oil was sky high they looked profitable and many were sanctioned. As the price turns downwards they become uneconomic and eventually fall by the wayside. The Turning tanker bit, is that period between when they start up and when they die when they are struggling and failing. I suspect in both China and Russia uneconomic transient production has come into the market and will soon expire.
Ophidian