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Thanks for all the responses and explanations, I should have read all the accompanying information. However I do stand by my opinion that as we have had locally experienced senior management across the group for many years, these improvement measures have taken a while to be implemented. Maybe it's because I've had my dosh tied up for almost ten years that I'm getting a bit impatient.
You've come up with a rolling 12 month forecast not taking into account production increases due in 2022, what's the point in that? Instead of going with the lowest possible figure how about going with 5000MT+ which is what the company are aiming for in 2022? That would almost certainly lead to far more than £14m net profit next year (or July to July of about ~4500MT if you're that way inclined).
Anyway a PE of 10 is extremely low with the potential for the BE storage story to start unfolding soon, are you aware of Largo's current PE ratio?
Wasn’t the significant re rate expected at 12, 13, 14, 15-18 and at 20p?
Pure nightmare
Just based purely on current guidance for H2, current V prices and cost guidance, we should be marginally profitable for 2021 if V prices remain at current level through H2.
Putting H1 to one side and looking at a ROLLING 12 month forecast from July 2021, based on the numbers provided, expected post tax profit would be in the region of £14million. This does not take into account any increase in production rate in H1 2022 when Vanchem kiln 3 is due to be contributing to Group profit.
Therefore on a simplistic valuation at current V prices using a forward PE ratio of 10, gives a valuation of approximately £140m. This is not far from where we sit today.
Yes we should hopefully see further cost reduction into next year and increased production, but it could be argued that this is where the Market sees the current valuation.
That being said, positive news on VRFB contracts (how long have we been saying that!) or a significant push north in V prices towards $60 and beyond would definitely light a fire under the share price.
Frustrating as it is for all of us, this is where we currently are and for those of us who believe in the Company, IMO patience will be rewarded.
@gobleS ... in the recent results webinar the new operations manager rather said 'phased shutdown' . What they were speaking about is that most parts can run at higher capacities so a certain material flow stockpile would be created to allow these areas to be shut for a few days to do maintenance without overall output falling. The only real 'shutdown' is towards to end phases that don't stockpile, but if there is another 35-day stop I would be pretty amazed (and very disappointed).
The impression from all the recent talks has been a material shift in focus from aspiration, to pragmatic delivery and to manage expectations. I think clearly FM (et al) have taken a lot of flak from guiding over-extended numbers with what is still an old and in need of significant maintenance plant at Vametco. The latest vid rather says that Vanchem is running very much more problem free and smoothly (but it is a lot newer).
@Sanchez seemed o hint at info on 2 bits of solid news this week .. so tomorrow I wonder
FM did explain today that lesson's had been learned in trying to play production catch up.
Without ploughing through old RNS's I'm pretty certain that they informed the market that the planned Vametco maintenance was classed as critical.
What more do you want the company to do?
You'd hope so for the amount of time it took, do you not think that might alarm the market, and the possibility that it might reoccur
Didn't they actually state that the maintenance was classed as critical?
Held my tongue for a long time, still hold 1M shares. I reckon the market will be looking at future "vital shutdowns", 35 days is not vital, it's critical, I've worked in industrial processing for 25 years, losing over a month of processing capacity is ridiculous, especially after the market has been told about all the local experts we have working for us. Just my opinion
Cc - Which ii do you think is selling down? We hardly have any left, possibly Duferco may have a few but I had the big selling earlier this year down to them . Of the other ii’s none have yet reported any changes in holdings, really only leaves OT or Acadia, although not beyond the bounds of possibility that they have not (yet) informed the company. We seem to have large uneven sells on a regular basis which I would mostly put down to pi’s.
I believe the market is mostly waiting for the q3 and q4 results to see if targets have been met and costs have reduced. It may also indicate if any further maintenance is necessary (hopefully none) as the high maintenance has certainly cost dearly up to now.
And a marked improvement of the BoD.
Hand in hand
Taufour you theory doesn’t not work as far as I am concerned. I stopped posting hear through utter disappointment at the negativity and moaning that has become prevalent on this bb. That was interfering with my need to be positive in dealing with my health issues.
Whilst I have received suggestions that I should join the Telegram group I have not taken up that offer so far. I only ‘came back here’ because my name was mentioned in a post that I strongly disagreed with.
However I have no wish to regularly engage here until I see a marked improvement in the general standard of posting.
That’s all from me.
Just my opinion.
Cindercone I agree with some of that. I have several times speculated that we have had one or more big sellers that have exerted a large drag on the share price and yes some pi’s selling has not helped. If the above is correct then I also agree with you the once the overhang is done then expect a significant rerate.
Just my opinion.
I'm still of the opinion a major II is selling huge amounts daily and there will be a re-rate when they're gone. Unfortunately, I suspect a lot of PIs have also got fed up and left, exacerbating the drop.
It's also my opinion they'll all be back, making this a bargain entry point whatever way you look at it.
This share is not dead, but outside of 100 or so people here and a few pockets elsewhere nobody gives a shiz about it. That's what 2 and a half years of falling share prices do to investor sentiment I'm afraid.
It will be back, but the market is sick of hearing what Bushveld might do and wants to see the walk walked.
Do I believe they'll produce 5000mTV at some point? Yes.
Do I believe it'll be when they predict? Not necessarily.
Serious patience required, but by the middle of the decade (which isn't really that far away) I think our patience will have been rewarded.
Let's hope this patient isn't a Norwegian Blue!
It is not the case that that the patient always win, however it can be a good defensive argument
no taufour
no they are not
Maybe there's too much harmony at telegram and people who relish a bit of an argument are coming back here.
The SP may be dead now, but, wait for the 'resurrection' - you'll regret selling up (if you do?).
GLA
The world is made of two sorts of people. The patient and the impatient.
Yes should listen to the people who know what they are talking about
Prob should have done that when you said the same to me at 22p....
probably should sell up and leave then Daisydog